Real Madrid will meet Atletico Madrid in the semifinals of the Champions League, starting May 2 at the Bernabeu. Here’s what to expect over the two legs.
The Madrid Derby has become and every-year occurrence in the Champions League. Real Madrid have ended Atletico Madrid’s European campaign each of the last three seasons. Even more interesting is the fact the two met in two of the last three Champions League finals (2014, 2016).
The crosstown rivals are set to face off once again, this time in the semifinals with the first leg set for May 2 at the Bernabeu. Can Atleti turn the tables on Real and advance to the final in Cardiff? Let’s take a closer look at the matchup.
How did they get here?
After finishing a surprising second in Group F to Borussia Dortmund, Real Madrid had a difficult path to the semifinals. They defeated Napoli 6-2 in the round of 16 before dumping Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals thanks to a thrilling 4-2 second leg that went to extra time. Cristiano Ronaldo netted a hat-trick in front of the home crowd, reaching 100 Champions League goals in the process.
Atletico, also maybe a bit surprisingly, won Group D by three points over favorites Bayern Munich. They then took a commanding 4-2 lead in the first leg of their round of 16 matchup against Leverkusen in Germany, and would win the tie with the same scoreline after a scoreless draw in Madrid.
Atleti then came up against a Leicester side that seemed to be duplicating their Cinderella run from last season’s Premier League campaign in this season’s Champions League campaign. After taking an important 1-0 lead at the Estadio Vicente Calderon, Atletico would hang on to win the tie with a 1-1 draw in England.
How will they play?
For most teams, losing a player of Gareth Bale’s quality would be extremely difficult to overcome. But Real Madrid can just insert Isco or Alvaro Morata in the lineup (must be nice, huh?). Also, Marcelo, who is a left-back, would be the best attacking player on most teams in the world. It goes without saying, but Real are world-class from front to back.
That means Atletico will have to utilize every bit of their vaunted defensive know-how if they hope to challenge their heavily-armed neighbors. Led by the center-back pairing of Diego Godin and Stefan Savic, Atleti have only given up five Champions League goals this season. They have also allowed a league-low 25 goals in La Liga (for comparison, Real Madrid have given up 39).
Even a passing knowledge of how these two play would lead one to feel pretty confident about what we’ll see in these two semifinal legs: Real will focus on breaking through Atleti’s stellar defense while Atleti look to punish Real on the break. And then there’s the whole thing of Ronaldo being able to win matches single-handedly. I would imagine Diego Simone’s and his players won’t bother discussing that one.
Prediction
In La Liga play, Real Madrid beat Atleti “on the road” 3-0 back in November. Ronaldo scored a hat-trick, naturally. The two sides settled for a 1-1 draw in their latest league matchup at the Bernabeu on April 8. Antoine Griezmann scored the late equalizer. Le Petit Diable (The Little Devil) will certainly need to live up to his nickname if Atleti want to pull off the upset.
Quite clearly, a smart person doesn’t pick against Real Madrid in this matchup — or in almost every matchup, really. Los Merengues have sent Atletico packing in the last three Champions League seasons. Real proved they are beatable by losing to Barcelona recently, but that was Barcelona. Who have Lionel Messi. Atleti do not have Lionel Messi.
No matter how much I, or anyone else, would love to see Fernando Torres bury the winner in the second leg, it seems very unlikely. Real Madrid are too powerful. Atletico and their fantastic defenders will only be able to hold on for so long before the levee is breached. The defending champions will be back in the final.
Real Madrid 4-2 Atletico Madrid