Isaiah Thomas’ defense is going to be a problem for the Celtics
By Ian Levy
After stumbling out of the gate, the Boston Celtics were able to bury the Washington Wizards under a storm of 3-pointers and take Game 1 at home in emphatic fashion. Seven different Celtics made a 3-pointer in the game and they finished 19-of-39 as a team (48.7 percent). Boston has played 88 other games between the regular season and the playoffs and in just three of those had they made a higher percentage of their 3s.
While the 3-point shooting was the story, and enough to secure them the win, it covered up for a pretty shaky defensive performance. The Celtics surrendered 113.6 points per 100 possessions in Game 1 to the Wizards. Between the regular season and playoffs, they had posted a defensive efficiency at least that poor in 18 games, winning just four.
Attacking Isaiah Thomas was one of the commons themes, as the Wizards raced out to their enormous first quarter lead. Thomas has had a sensational season but his size makes him a defensive liability. ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus estimated Thomas to be the worst defensive point guard in the league this season, contributing -3.87 points per 100 possessions to his team’s performance at that end. That mark would also make him the second-worst defender in the entire league, trailing only Doug McDermott.
On a few possessions, the Celtics tried to keep Thomas away from John Wall and Bradley Beal, hiding him on Otto Porter. While Porter is not the on-ball threat that Wall or Beal is, running him off screens was an easy way to create separation from Thomas and get open looks (this is the possession where Thomas had a tooth knocked out.
On the occasions when Wall found himself matched up with Thomas, he wasted no time in attacking, either running Thomas into screens to create separation or just simply shooting over the top.
When Boston’s defense overcompensated to try and keep Thomas from being exploited, they found themselves leaving the 3-point line undefended.
Between these relatively easy scoring opportunities, and giving up four offensive rebounds in the first quarter, this was sort of a greatest hits compilation of Boston’s defensive flaws. The Celtics were ultimately able to close the gap but they made up most of the deficit from Washington’s hot start when Thomas went to the bench late in the first quarter. They were down 16 when Thomas went to the bench with 1:55 left in the first. They trailed by just four points when he returned with 8:10 left in the second.
Boston won by 12 points but, across the entire game, they were even when Thomas was on the floor, allowing Washington to score 126.9 points per 100 possessions. In the first half, before the Wizards were forced to adjust to really adjust their rotations for Markieff Morris’ ankle injury, those numbers were -19, and 147.2 points allowed per 100 possessions.
Morris rolled his ankle on a jumper with just over seven minutes left in the first half and never returned. His absence meant more minutes for Kelly Oubre Jr. and a place for Thomas to hide out defensively.
Oubre Jr. provides value as a cutter and spot-up shooter but the Wizards clearly weren’t comfortable letting Oubre Jr. try and attack Thomas directly with his size — Oubre finished just two post-up possessions during the entire regular season. But they were still able to take advantage by putting Oubre in the corner and involving Marcin Gortat in high pick-and-rolls and. With Oubre as the least-threatening shooter left on the floor, this often left Thomas in the position of having to rotate down and protect the paint.
The Wizards weren’t always able to capitalize on those opportunities but it was clearly an advantage there to be had. These kinds of scenarios are why Morris’ health is so important. When he’s on the floor with the rest of Washington’s starting lineup, Thomas has to guard Porter, Beal or Wall. The latter two can exploit Thomas off the dribble and Porter is much more skilled than Oubre in the post and making plays in the middle of the floor. Considering those defensive matchups, it’s not much of a surprise that the Celtics were -10.7 per 100 possessions against the Wizards’ starters in the regular season with Thomas on the floor, surrendering 124.4 points per 100 possessions.
Down the stretch of the fourth quarter, Thomas spent more time guarding Wall. On a few occasions Wall was able to get past him and collapse the defense for open looks but the Wizards were also clearly pressing to close the gap at this point and took some quick perimeter shots instead of targeting Thomas the way they did in the first half.
Boston has to feel great about Thomas’ offensive performance, the confidence-building performance for players like Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley, and the depth advantage they still hold — they were -13 against Washington’s starting five and +25 combined against all other Washington lineups. Still, if they had shot closer to their regular season average from the outside, or if Morris hadn’t turned his ankle this game could have been much closer.
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A win is a win is a win, especially in a seven-game playoff series and Boston has spent all season scheming around the defensive shortcomings of Thomas. Still, Washington has the ability to take advantage and the margin for error only grows smaller if the Celtics advance.