MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Bettors can capitalize on high line at Wrigley tonight
By Matt Zylbert
The wind will be blowing out heavily tonight at Wrigley Field, but with Vince Velasquez and Brett Anderson on the hill, there just might be enough support for the under.
Two straight days I went with an Under 8.5 bet, and two straight days we sweated and squeaked it out, en route to a pair of 5-3 finals to conclude a nice first month of my 2017 season. Let’s see if we can start out May with another triumph.
Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 16-13-3 (55.2%), +210
Yesterday’s Result: Pivetta vs Ryu Under 8.5 (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 100 dollars/units
Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs
Vince Velasquez vs Brett Anderson
UNDER 11 (-120) (via OddsShark)
If you’re new to betting over/unders, you probably don’t know that games at Wrigley Field may sometimes come with an abnormally high total, which has a lot to do with the infamous winds. That’s why lines for Cubs home games are typically the last ones released for bettors to wager on.
In tonight’s series opener between the Phillies and Cubs, we’ll be dealing with some strong winds blowing out, but at the same time, it appears as if the lines-makers have overlooked this underrated pitching matchup.
The Phillies weren’t able to scratch across many runs against a left-hander in my under victory yesterday, and we’ll hope for the same exact result in this one as Chicago will trot out southpaw Brett Anderson to kick off this four-game set.
Anderson is out to a solid start in his first year with the Cubbies, going 2-0 with a 3.54 ERA in the first month of the campaign. His walks are a little high but with Philadelphia being 22nd in the majors in on-base percentage (.299) opposite left-handed pitching, this could be a good spot for him to churn out his second quality start of the year.
He’s already been exhibiting some commendable consistency, having logged at least five innings while surrendering one earned run or fewer in three of his four starts. We’d love it if he provided something similar this evening.
But the pitcher that could make or break this bet would be the other starting hurler in this contest, Phillies right-hander Vince Velasquez, who looks like he’s trending in the right direction again.
After a bit of a concerning beginning to his year, Velasquez has seemingly started to settle in, having spun consecutive quality starts entering tonight. He’s managed to do so despite a surprisingly lower strikeout total, but whatever adjustments he’s made are starting to get him deeper into games as the former Astro is getting quicker outs and a lot more groundball results. In fact, he generated a whopping 20 ground-outs in his last two outings compared to just five in the first two.
This will really come in handy for an assignment like the one he has at Wrigley with the aforementioned winds blowing out. With Velasquez getting the ball on the ground more, that hopefully prevents the world champions from going crazy with the long ball. And when necessary, he can still dial it up when seeking a punch-out.
A huge bet isn’t recommended here, but it still merits some action as our first over/under play in May.