Welcome back to the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column. This is the Tuesday, May 2nd edition. We’ll continue to target top pitching plays, mid-range salary and cheap value options. Finally, we’ll discuss pitchers to avoid in your lineup, or focus on for hitting. Evaluating daily pitching is a vital part to building your MLB FanDuel lineup for a big pay-day.
Last night was rough, with many unusual results, and some hits and misses from our article. Tonight, we’re back to a full slate of 15 MLB games, or 30 teams to pick through four our MLB FanDuel lineups. Tuesday presents several outstanding match ups as well, with hot names like Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, and Chris Sale all on the mound tonight.
But there are several under-the-radar picks available as well, and we’ll also discuss which pitcher to target for a hitting stack. Here’s a look at the list of games we’ve narrowed our search down to:
BAL Alec Asher at BOS Chris Sale (7:10pm ET)
CHW Jose Quintana at KC Danny Duffy (8:15pm ET)
LAA Matt Shoemaker at SEA James Paxton (10:10pm ET)
SF Matt Moore at LAD Alex Wood (10:10pm ET)
Let’s start by looking at our top scoring, but also more expensive, MLB FanDuel pitcher for Tuesday night…
Next: Top Scoring Pitcher
Top Scoring MLB FanDuel Pitcher
The O’s in Fenway series has turned into a nasty affair, but it’s also fun to watch. Boston is where we are going find our top pick at pitcher tonight. Chris Sale ($11,700) is absolutely on fire right now, arguably the best pitcher in baseball so far this season. The left-hander is averaging 56 MLB FanDuel points-per-game, so over 60 points is a reasonable expectation, and a decent return for under $12K in salary.
The Orioles have had respectable BvP history against Sale, but you should throw BvP out when a player is this hot. Also, it’s not that impressive, hitting only .258 in 89 at-bats is more surviving, versus owning, a pitcher. Most of the productivity has come from Adam Jones (OF – $3,000). But I’d fade all Orioles tonight and try to afford Sale in at least one lineup.
If you can’t afford Sale, I would fade Lester, Kluber, Verlander, and Hamels. Kluber is a right-hander, the kind the Tigers love to feast on. Lester struggled recently in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. Jon has mostly pitched well in Wrigley. But I’m not going to pay $10,400 for a pitcher to cross my fingers he bounces back against a surprisingly potent Phillies lineup, so far this year. Finally, Verlander and Hamels will likely emerge later in the season as quality pitchers, but they’re struggling out of the gate, and have bad match ups tonight. So let’s take a look at the next best options…
Next: Top Mid-Range Pitcher
Mid-Range Salary Value
The next two best MLB FanDuel options are James Paxton ($9,300) and Ervin Santana ($9,200). Each is a great option tonight. But it’s likely most MLB FanDuel players will look at the match up with Oakland in Minnesota and immediately grab Santana, if they haven’t picked Sale. Santana should have a 30-40 MLB FanDuel point night, but Paxton surprisingly has a better matched up against the Angels.
The first thing to consider is the Angels offense, which is currently overrated. They’re 19th in MLB in offensive WAR, and 17th in wOBA. The Halos are 10th in lowest strikeout ratios, but they’re 21st in walks. So they have some discipline at the plate, but they’re not producing runs, or wins, when avoiding the K.
Against Paxton, this Angels lineup has struggled. The left-hander has managed to maintain a low .211 batting average when pitching to the Angels, and only Pujols has a home run (two) against James. Trout hates facing Paxton, hitting only 2-for-20, with TEN STRIKEOUTS. That’s right, Paxton has struck out Mike Trout in 50% of the at-bats they’ve faced each other.
Next: Pitching Value
Pitching Value
For value, I’m picking a guy I’ve targeted during the month of April for my hitters. So there’s risk here. Matt Moore ($7,900) likely will have low ownership tonight. But Moore could be a sneaky play against the Dodgers. If you need evidence, look no further than last Thursday’s match up in San Francisco. Matt was able to grab a quality start against the Dodgers, while only giving up two hits and one earned run. Moore also piled up eight strikeouts and totaled 46 MLB FanDuel points, a great return for under $8K.
The Dodgers have a very weak BvP against Moore, hitting only .167 in 108 at-bats. Pederson, Puig, and Seager have each gone yard once against Matt, but they also only managed around two hits per ten at-bats. Also, the Dodgers on base and slugging percentage against Moore is well below .300. Add the 26% K ratio on top of the terrible hitting results against Moore, and you can see why he was so successful against the Dodgers last week.
This play will allow you to really load up on some big named hitters tonight, and afford some of the stacking options we’ll discuss next…
Next: Offensive Pitching Target
Offensive Pitching Target
Danny Duffy ($8,900) was off to a great start this season, yielding 34 to 46 MLB FanDuel points per game through April 20th. Then Duffy pitched against the White Sox in Chicago on April 25th and was shelled with nine hits and six earned runs. Danny only managed two MLB FanDuel points that game. It’s not a surprise though. The White Sox an above .300 batting average and nearly .500 slugging percentage against Duffy. They match up well against the lefty. So tonight, Duffy is a hard fade, and I would stack White Sox bats, many who could be cheap tonight.
The White Sox backstop Geovany Soto (C – $2,200) likely makes a return to the lineup tonight. Soto has been yielding time to Narvaez after hitting the disabled list briefly in April and struggling at the plate after the DL stint. But Soto is 2-for-6 with two home runs against Duffy. So it would make a lot of sense to see Soto in the lineup tonight, and he could be a tremendous value play at catcher.
Another great value pick, Yolmer Sanchez (2B – $2,300) could also be in the lineup tonight after a few nights off. Sanchez has 17 career at-bats against Duffy, and has a tremendous .412 average, including a double and a triple.
Like most of the White Sox lineup, Todd Frazier (3B – $3,800) is off to a rough start to the season, but Frazier is hitting .313 against Duffy, with two home runs and five RBI’s. Finally, Avisail Garcia (OF – $3,700) and his hot bat took an injury related night off on Monday. But Garcia isn’t expect to hit the DL, and matches up very well against Duffy. If he plays, plug him into your lineup.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Always check MLB lineups throughout the day when playing MLB FanDuel. You can typically find starting pitchers a few days, or day before, each game. But as the season progresses, pitchers develop injuries, sometimes only hours, or less, before a game. So always stay tuned for changes before locking in your lineup. Also, weather events can cancel a game, crushing your entire lineup. So it’s important to become a weather geek, like me, if you want to stack that cash in MLB FanDuel.
Follow us on twitter, @fantasycpr, for updates as we get closer to lineup lock time. Good Luck today FanDuelers!