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NFL over/unders released for 2017

By Pj Candido

Feb 5, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; New England quarterback Tom Brady (12) in action against the Atlanta Falcons during the first quarter of Super Bowl LI at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 5, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; New England quarterback Tom Brady (12) in action against the Atlanta Falcons during the first quarter of Super Bowl LI at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports /
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With the conclusion of the 2017 NFL draft, it becomes easier to analyze each team and project results for the upcoming season.

Las Vegas, as always, is ahead of the curve; you can already bet on Week 1, courtesy of VegasInsider. Thanks to the South Point Hotel in Vegas, we can take a look at each teams over/under’s for the 2017 season. And we will. Right here, right now.

For simplicity sake, I won’t go through every single team’s win/loss total projected by the Vegas sportsbook. What I will do, instead, is point out some of the totals that particularly stand out to me. I will split it up by conference and offer some thoughts on a few teams from each the NFC and AFC.

AFC Win Total Over/Under’s

New England Patriots: 11 wins (over -120, under EV)

Let’s get the Patriots out of the way. Their 11 wins total is the highest Vegas has to offer, and rightfully so. They’ve won 12 or more games in seven consecutive seasons — the most novice fan/bettor knows not to go near the under, but I want to warn those who (again, rightfully so) want to hammer the over.

Eleven wins is a lot, and even for the Patriots, it’s tough to predict any team to exceed that number. A lot goes in to a full NFL season: a simple injury or two can diminish a team’s success dramatically, and for that reason alone, I think the Patriots (and any team with that high of a total) are a stay-away.

Los Angeles Chargers: 7.5 wins (over -110, under -110)

The Chargers have been one of the more fascinating teams in the NFL with Philip Rivers under center. Last year, specifically, they literally found ways to lose games. Despite losing key players like Keenan Allen, Danny Woodhead, and later Melvin Gordon to season-ending injuries, the Chargers still won five games in 2016.

More startling: 10 of their 11 losses came by eight points or less. I think the new-look Los Angeles Chargers, under new Head coach Anthony Lynn, will stay healthier at key positions and win a few of the games they should have won in 2016. I love them to win at least eight, and think over 7.5 is a great play.

Tennessee Titans: 9.5 wins (over EV, under -120)

This is a really high projected win total for a team that hasn’t won 10 games or played a playoff game since 2008, but it’s for good reason. The Titans were close to returning to the postseason last year, and they have a young, promising team that’s headed in the right direction.

I loved the Titans’ draft haul, and I think they’re a better, more mature team heading into 2017. They run the football successfully, just found their true No. 1 receiver in the draft in Corey Davis, and shored up their weaknesses on defense in the secondary. I think the Titans make the playoffs in 2017 with help of a weak AFC South, and I love the over 9.5 wins.

NFC Win Total Over/Under’s

New York Giants: 9 wins (over -115, under -105)

The Giants didn’t do much to improve their weakest unit on their 2016 team (offensive line), but they strengthened their strengths. With first-round addition Evan Engram joining an already-scary receiving core, the Giants should be unstoppable through the air in 2017 now that they have an actual pass-catching tight end for the first time in years.

Plus, Eli Manning is by far the most experienced quarterback in the division, and he knows his career is at the back end (and so do the Giants, as proven by their drafting of QB Davis Webb). I think the Giants have a good chance of stealing the NFC East from the Cowboys, and I like them to win at least nine games. Over nine is the play for me.

Carolina Panthers: 9 wins (over 9 -120, under EV)

The Panthers had a disastrous 2016 season, but their 2017 haul in the draft gives me confidence that Cam Newton will have more weapons to work with, which he so desperately needs. The Panthers won only six games last year, but lost five of them by a field goal or less.

Like the Chargers, I think the Panthers rebound and win a few of the games they should have in 2016. The ball bounces back in their favor, and one of the most polarizing players in the league in Cam Newton will return to the postseason in 2017. I love the Panthers over nine wins.

Next: NFL March Madness: Who's the greatest QB?

Washington Redskins: 7.5 wins (over -120, under EV)

The Redskins had a strong draft, but there’s a ton to dislike about how their organization is being run. After the Scot McCloughan debacle, it’s tough to like this team heading into 2017. There were a ton of rumors that QB Kirk Cousins would play elsewhere via trade, and that’s already a recipe for disaster heading into the preseason.

Their offense put up great numbers last year, but couldn’t get it done when it mattered. It’s tough to imagine they will bounce back in a tough NFC East, especially considering their already-weak defense didn’t get much better in the offseason. I like the under 7.5 wins for the Skins.