DraftKings Wells Fargo Championship DFS Preview
The tour will head to Wilmington, North Carolina this week, for the Wells Fargo Championship. Eagle Point Golf Club will be the host course this year and will play at around 7400 yards and a par 72. This tournament is normally played at Quail Hollow, but with Quail Hollow hosting the PGA Championship this year, the Wells Fargo Championship will be played at Eagle Piont for the first time. That said, we wont have any course history or course fit data to work with. This will lead me to lean more on data and data such as, Vegas implied odds, recent form, driving distance, long term ADJ. RD. Score, and birdie scoring.
Winds will play a major factor this week, as this course sits much closer to the shoreline than Quail Hallow and the course has also recently removed some trees that would normally shield the fairway. As of right now there may be merit to building correlated lineups around the Thursday AM wave and fading the Thursday PM wave, but as always, you’ll have to make that call closer to Wednesday night, as the weather could change at any second.
It’s also important to note that last week’s Zurich Classic was extended to Monday, so be mindful of golfers that may be coming in on short rest.
Mispriced Golfers Relative to Implied Odds:
Alexander Noren – $6600
Alexander Noren is one of the most glaringly miss-priced golfers this week. Noren currently holds a 1.3% chance of winning, much higher than anyone in his price range. In general Noren is just simply a much better golfer, with a long term adjusted round score of 69.3. Noren may also be due to see some positive regression with the putter. Over the last six weeks, Noren has averaged 31 course and field adjusted putts per round, compared to the last 75 weeks, where Noren has averaged 29.5 putts per round.
Other mispriced golfers: D. Johnson, Kisner, Berger, McGirt, Holmes, Scott, Cink, Varner, List
Course History:
Webb Simpson – $9700
As mentioned earlier, this tournament is normally held at Quail Hollow and therefore we wont have any course history to draw from. However, two golfers are North Carolina natives and call Eagle Point home, Webb Simpson and Carl Pettersson. On normal weeks, most golfers have a bit of course history and those with the best tend to see inflated ownership. This week, Webb Simpson has a much more significant edge than normal, if you consider course history an edge. I’m still quite torn, but tend to lean on the side of fading Webb if he’s projected to see over 20% ownership. Ultimately you’ll need to decide how to weigh course history while also balancing projected ownership, but if you do deem it worthy, Simpson would be the golfer to consider.
Others with course history: Pettersson
Bad Recent Putter to Regress:
Adam Scott – $10000
It’s no secret that putting is Adam Scott’s kryptonite, but he’s had significantly more trouble on the greens than expected, lately. If you caught any of the Masters final round, you saw Scott miss a handful of birdie putts that would have put him in contention. In the last six weeks he’s had an average of 32 course and field adjusted putts per round, compared to his long term sample of 29.8 putts per round. Scott has had some time off and given his length, he could dominate this course if a few putts roll his way.
Others struggling with the putter to possibly see improvement: Pan, Holmes, Haas, Power, Reed, Z. Johnson
Recent Form:
Paul Casey – $9900
Paul Casey has, arguably, been in the best form of any golfer on tour. Ever since the Genesis, Casey has turned it on, including a 9th place finish at World Matchplay and then a 6th place finish at the Masters. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Sony Open and could offer stability in cash games. I’d expect Casey to be heavily owned in tournaments, but he does offer value given his all around game and implied win percentage of 4.8%.
Other golfers in good recent form: Berger, McGirt, Rahm, Kisner, Swafford
Next: MLB FanDuel Daily Pitching Focus
Best of luck in your DraftKings Wells Fargo Championship contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all our DFS content each and every day!