Welcome, once again, to the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column. This is the Wednesday, May 3rd edition. For tonight’s games, we’ll identify top pitching plays, mid-range salary options, cheap value, and a sneaky pick of the day. Also, we’ll discuss pitchers to avoid in your lineup, or focus on for hitting. Evaluating daily pitching is a crucial part to building your MLB FanDuel lineup for a big pay-day.
Yesterday’s results were mixed. Even though he gave up a home run, and two earned runs, Sale continued to dominate with a quality start, win, and eleven strikeouts. Chris continues to be well worth the salary. Paxton dropped a respectable 31 MLB FanDuel points, but we expected more from James. He was able to dominate Trout again, but gave up a cringe-worthy five walks, and was yanked early missing the quality start. And the White Sox were able to feast off of Duffy, once again, so the stack worked out well. It wasn’t a bad night.
Tonight, we’re back to a full slate of 15 games again, or 30 pitchers to review. We’re going to narrow our search down to four games for pitchers we like in our lineup, and three games of pitchers to target for hitting. Here’s a look at the list of games we’ve narrowed our search down to:
TOR Marcus Stroman at NYY C.C. Sabathia (7:05pm ET)
ARZ Robbie Ray at WSH Gio González (7:05pm ET)
BAL Kevin Gausman at BOS Drew Pomeranz (7:10pm ET)
CLE Carlos Carrasco at DET Matt Boyd (7:10pm ET)
OAK Kendall Graveman at MIN Hector Santiago (8:10pm ET)
TEX Nick Martínez at HOU Charlie Morton (8:10pm ET)
COL Antonio Senzatela at SD Jared Weaver (10:10pm ET)
Let’s start by looking at our top scoring, but also more expensive, MLB FanDuel pitcher for Wednesday night…
Next: Top Scoring Pitcher
Top Scoring MLB FanDuel Pitcher
If you’re looking for a contrarian point of view, you’ve come to the right place. Many of these picks will likely be low-owned, starting with our top pitcher, Marcus Stroman ($9,200). deGrom doesn’t have a fantastic history against a hot-hitting Braves lineup. Jacob did drop 40 points against the Braves in earlier April, but for $11K, I’m not that excited about deGrom at pitcher tonight. Righty Carrasco has struggled against some of the Tiger bats, and Arrieta is showing some fatigue since the late season playoff run last year. Jake is also facing a hot set of bats from the Phillies. We’ll also talk about why we don’t like Gio later in the article. So, we’re not focusing on Stroman.
The first thing you’re likely thinking, is the reason I originally avoided Stroman. Aside from the Nationals, the Yankees have the hottest bats in baseball. Judge is slinging a tree trunk at the plate and making contact often, putting the ball over the wall. And Judge’s hot bat has yet to face Stroman.
While the Yankees bats are hot, their lineup generally struggles considerably against Marcus. In 92 AB’s against Stroman, the Yankees are hitting a .174 batting average and have a horrendous .224 OBP. Thanks go Gardner’s two home runs in 22 at-bats against Stroman, their Slugging average is a tad above .300. But without Gardner, their hitting is essentially non-existent against Stroman. Marcus also has a solid 24% K ratio against the Yankees.
Aside from a rough outing in mid-April against the Red Sox, Stroman is having a solid start. And he’s got solid potential for 40+ MLB FanDuel points tonight. So we can pay $9.2K for Stroman and get around 40 points, versus $11K for deGrom. I’d rather take the value here.
Speaking of value, let’s look at the top mid-range salary option tonight…
Next: Top Mid-Range Pitcher
Mid-Range Salary Value
When talking about Sale yesterday, we discussed how the Orioles bats started hot but are mostly overrated so far this season. Especially against lefties. Drew Pomeranz ($8,100) is another lefty the Red Sox will be hurling at the O’s tonight. Hopefully Pomeranz can avoid throwing at heads and stick to the game (and avoid ejection). Unfortunately, that is one odd risk in this game for Drew. That risk aside, this should be one of Pomeranz better games.
Against lefties, the Orioles are scoring around 18th in MLB. Even worse, they’re OBP is 24th, among 30 teams, in baseball this season against left-handed pitchers. The Orioles Castillo has the best history against Pomeranz, hitting .375 with a home run in eight at-bats. But Wellington is on the DL. Without Wellington, the Red Sox are worse than their .239 batting average and .282 OBP against Pomeranz. They’re going to struggle to get on base tonight. Also, Drew has a 30% K ratio against the Orioles.
So fade Orioles bats tonight and consider Pomeranz as a rock-solid value in the mid-salary range for pitching options.
Sneaky Pick: Hector Santiago ($7,400). The Oakland A’s have some bats historically solid against Santiago. But they’re few. With Semien on the DL, only Phegley is a threat. Even with Semien and Phegley’s stats considering, the A’s are only hitting .187 against Hector, with a .274 OBP. Without them, each is near zero. Also, Santiago is hot. This isn’t the game where Santiago comes back down to earth. Take advantage of Hector while he’s hot and has great match ups.
Next: Pitching Value
Pitching Value
Jared Weaver ($5,600) will likely be off of everyone’s radar and I love that! Jared is having a rough season so far. In Weaver’s six starts, five have resulted in 25 or less MLB FanDuel points-per-game. The one exception? Jared pitched a quality start in Colorado, against the Rockies, giving up only three hits and two earned runs, with no walks and five strikeouts. Weaver didn’t get the win, but he still piled up 31 MLB FanDuel points. That may not seem like a lot, but for only $5.6K, that’s a great return, and really allows you to load up on big bats.
But the Rockies are hot right? One of the best teams in baseball, yes. Right now they are, in April. Surprisingly, the Rockies pitching staff is keeping them in games this year. Their hitting has struggled, which is rare for a team in Colorado. Against right-handed pitchers like Weaver, they’ve struggled the most, with a run production that’s 20th in MLB against righties. Also, the Rockies are only hitting .242 against right-handed pitchers, 19th in the majors, and are 18th in OBP, .313.
As a team, Colorado is hitting a dreadful .128 against Jared in 47 at-bats. That may not be a huge population of data, but that’s a horrendous outcome in at least two or more starts. Their on base percentage is only .180 and slugging average is .277 against Weaver. In short, Weaver owns this lineup so far. Another thing to consider, the Rockies are hitting in a non-hitter friendly park, in San Diego, and are likely to perform worse against Jared tonight. There is enormous value potential on a very low-owned SP tonight with Weaver.
Next: Offensive Pitching Target
Offensive Pitching Target
We’re targeting three pitchers tonight for hitting stacks; Astros vs. Nick Martinez, Diamondbacks vs. Gio Gonzalez, and Tigers vs. Carlos Carrasco.
Martinez is off to a good start for the Rangers this season, but he matches up poorly with this Astros lineup. The right-hander provides a .313/.365/.597 BA/OBP/SLG against this Astros lineup. George Springer (OF-$3,500), Josh Reddick (OF-$2,800), and Evan Gattis (C-$3,100) each have incredibly productive history against Martinez. Altuve is a decent play as well.
I typically target Gonzalez this season with the pitcher pick because he’s been pitching incredibly well since spring training this year, really a carry-over from the second half of last season. But Gio has a soft spot for the D-Backs. Paul Goldschmidt (1B – $4,600), Chris Owings ($3,300), AJ Pollock ($4,000), and Yasmany Tomas ($3,600) catch fire against Gio, each hitting between .375 and .667 against Gonzalez.
Carrasco is a second tier pitcher you’d typically target for a pitcher pick in your lineup, but against a right-handed hitting Tigers, he’s a clear fade. J.D. Martinez (OF-$3,300) and Alex Avila (C-$3,000) love facing Carrasco and should each have a great night on Wednesday night. If Cabrera is on the field as well, he’s another Tiger to stack with Martinez and Avila.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Always check MLB lineups throughout the day when playing MLB FanDuel. You can typically find starting pitchers a few days, or day before, each game. But as the season progresses, pitchers develop injuries, sometimes only hours, or less, before a game. So always stay tuned for changes before locking in your lineup. Also, weather events can cancel a game, crushing your entire lineup. So it’s important to become a weather geek, like me, if you want to stack that cash in MLB FanDuel.
Follow us on twitter, @fantasycpr, for updates as we get closer to lineup lock time. Good Luck today FanDuelers!