Jake Arrieta has posted some historically good numbers at Wrigley Field since being traded to the Cubs in 2013. Can he churn out another one of his signature home efforts and help produce an under?
Shout out to the few cops I met yesterday for inspiration, as Peralta vs Martinez Under 8 comes through without a sweat thanks to some strong pitching from both starters. Let’s not dwell on it, though, as today is a new day and I’d like to get another winning streak going.
Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 17-14-3 (54.8 percent), +190
Yesterday’s Result: Peralta vs Martinez Under 8 (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 100 dollars/units
Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs
Jerad Eickhoff vs Jake Arrieta
UNDER 7.5 (-120) (via OddsShark)
Well, I lost the under in the opener of this four-game series on Monday (by a run), but we’ll give it another try with this premium pitching matchup set for tonight — and with the wind blowing in considerably from center field.
Of course, it’s always nice to be leaning on former NL Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta, even if he’s been slightly off as of late. In each of his last two outings, the 31-year-old has yielded five runs apiece, something he had never done in back-to-back starts since joining the Cubs at the tail-end of the 2013 campaign. But that’s something that can work to our advantage, as it should drive him more to get back on track.
It will also help that Arrieta will be working from home tonight, seeing as how his best work generally occurs at Wrigley Field. In fact, the former Oriole has now made 50 starts at home with the Cubbies, and check out his stat line: 25-12, 2.24 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 330 Ks in 325 total innings. In addition, opposing hitters have managed just a .178 batting average off Arrieta when he toes the rubber at Wrigley. Compare that to a career 3.71 ERA on the road and you have to like Arrieta’s outlook whenever he’s taking the mound in the Windy City.
As we saw on Monday, though, all it takes is one pitcher to ruin an under, so if Arrieta spins one of his typical home gems, we have to hope youngster Jerad Eickhoff is decent enough to keep us in range to secure this bet.
And given what the former Rangers prospect has done since landing in Philadelphia, it’s apparent that he’s developing a fine reputation for consistency. Through five starts thus far, Eickhoff doesn’t have a win, but he does possess pretty good numbers, owning a 3.56 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .235 batting average against while registering nearly a strikeout per inning.
Being a Rangers fan myself, I knew Eickhoff would succeed in the National League after he was dealt away in the Cole Hamels trade, though I didn’t know he’d fare this consistently so quickly. Eickhoff made 41 total starts over the past two seasons since first coming up and the results were very solid.
But arguably the main thing that could have us satisfied with the third-year right-hander in this spot was his success opposite the Cubs a season ago. Eickhoff faced Chicago twice last year, notching a 3.46 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .227 batting average against en route to going 1-1. In other words, he held his own versus a pretty intimidating lineup, and with that experience, it should perhaps provide him some extra confidence, as well as internal excitement, getting set to take on the world champs on their home field once again.
It won’t be easy given how both these lineups are capable of putting up a crooked number on the scoreboard, but those strong Wrigley winds blowing in could help us out just enough. With the starting pitchers doing the rest, the under may be a solid bet.
*Always check back to see if additional action has been added.