MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Tanner Roark’s mastery of Phils should have you thinking under

Tanner Roark has been tremendous in his starts against the Phillies and another similar outing could pave the way for an under.

Tough loss last night, as we get the desired dominant performance from Clayton Kershaw against the lowly Padres, but it ends up being all for naught, as Clayton Richard came apart towards the end of his night. And then as we’re trying to hold on, the under loses with two outs in the ninth. Thus, I really want to wrap up this first week of May back on a winning note.

Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Bettjng Record: 19-16-3 (54.3%), +160

Yesterday’s Result: Kershaw vs Richard Under 6.5 (Loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 100 dollars/units

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies

Tanner Roark vs. Jeremy Hellickson

UNDER 8.5 (-110) (via OddsShark)

Since first entering the Nationals’ rotation a few years ago, Tanner Roark has proven himself to be one of the more consistent starting pitchers in all of the National League.

That statement especially rings true when Roark is toeing the rubber opposite the division rival Phillies, who apparently just can’t seem to figure out the five-year veteran.

Roark possesses some nice overall numbers versus the Fightin’ Phils, including last year, when he was 3-0 in five assignments against Philadelphia with a microscopic 0.79 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. That excellence has apparently carried over into this season, as Roark held the Phillies to two runs over seven strong innings back on April 15 in his first 2017 encounter with the Phillies.

So, with a line as high as 8.5 and that kind of dependable track record against an opponent, we have to like Roark’s chances here for another gem. And we can say the same for Jeremy Hellickson’s prospects as well.

Hellickson has already faced the Nationals twice this season and looked terrific, holding them to two runs combined over 12 innings of work.

But the key here that could ensure another successful effort from the former Tampa Bay Ray is that Hellickson is working from home today. Last year in his first season in Philadelphia, he was 7-4 in 16 starts at Citizens Bank Park with a 3.16 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Furthermore, he seemingly prefers pitching during the day, too, as he had a 2.66 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in seven daytime outings in 2016. Both of those trends have continued thus far.

The Nationals are without some of their key regulars in the lineup, which can only aid Hellickson in keeping it going. Combine that with another positive showing from Roark against the Phils and it could equal an under.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays

Joe Biagini vs. Alex Cobb

UNDER 8

Ideally, you want a higher line to work with in a game that features one of the starting pitchers making his first career big league start, but there still might be enough here after all given the matchup.

First, let’s start with the much more well-known commodity here, that of course being Alex Cobb, who is still in the process of settling in again after being limited to just six starts a year ago due to injury.

Fortunately for us under backers, Cobb has actually been considerably better as of late following an inauspicious beginning to 2017, in which he surrendered exactly four runs apiece in three of his first four starts of the campaign.

Since then, though, he’s been real solid and is coming off his best outing on the young season, blanking the Marlins over six quality innings and yielding just four hits in all. With that under his belt, it’s worth attempting to ride Cobb Ashe moves forward with his newfound momentum and confidence, plus it’ll help that the Blue Jays are 26th in baseball with an undesirable .233 team batting average, while also ranking 26th in runs scored.

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That brings us to Joe Biagini, making his first start in the majors. Despite exclusively being used as a reliever since first coming up last year, the 26-year-old actually has plenty of experience starting in the minor leagues, so this won’t be something new for him.

Considering how good he’s fared out of the bullpen (3.06 ERA in 60 games last year, 3.38 ERA and 0.98 WHIP thus far this season), there’s a pretty good chance that can translate into success as a starting pitcher as well. Based on his attitude, Biagini seems set for this assignment, which solidifies fine potential for this under hitting.

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