The Dallas Cowboys and Oakland Raiders both made huge jumps last year. Expect both to contend, but slide a bit back to the pack.
Every season, a few teams make the leap from obscurity to contender. In 2016, the Raiders and Cowboys were the darlings of the NFL, winning 25 regular-season games between them. For Dallas, it was the first time it won the NFC East and had a first-round postseason bye since 2007. For Oakland, it was the first winning season and trip to the playoffs since 2002.
The Raiders and Cowboys both saw their seasons end in disappointment, with neither advancing in January. Yet, due to a litany of factors, both have reasons to believe in the future. Each has a star-studded offense that include young, star quarterbacks, dynamic receivers and terrific lines. Conversely, Dallas and Oakland both should be prepared for a struggle against likely regression in 2017.
It’s easy to look at both situation and be blinded by starpower. Unfortunately, while both are loaded in that department, they lack significantly in others. Dallas was stripped of its starting secondary in free agency, losing Brandon Carr, J.J. Wilcox, Morris Claiborne and Barry Church. The Raiders had a porous defense that outside of Khalil Mack, offers little to unnerve opposing offensive coordinators. While a second year for Karl Joseph and the drafting of Gareon Conley should help, the front seven remains a lackluster group sans Mack.
Last year, Oakland ranked 26th in yards allowed, 20th in points surrendered and dead last with 25 sacks. The latter is miraculous, considering the Raiders had the Defensive Player of the Year in Mack, who registered 11.
The Raiders will again rely on their offense, which now faces a much tougher schedule. Oakland will see a second-place docket that includes the NFC East and AFC East. The road games? Denver, Los Angeles, Kansas City, Buffalo, Miami, Philadelphia, Washington and Tennessee. If Vegas had lines out for each, Oakland might be a favorite in two or three of the games. At home, the Chiefs, Patriots, Broncos, Chargers, Giants and Cowboys all loom. It won’t be easy to find 10 wins on the schedule.
The same can be said for Dallas. The Cowboys are borderline barren defensively and now face a first-place schedule after having a last-place slate in 2016. Combine that with film on Dak Prescott and an improved Giants team, and Dallas has a tough road ahead. It’s not implausible to believe the Cowboys could be as good or better than they were last year, and see them slide to a 9 or 10-win team.
At the crux of it, this isn’t about two teams getting worse as much as it’s about facing more challenging elements. Prescott will face some of the league’s best secondaries this year, including Kansas City, Denver, New York and potentially Los Angeles, which boasts Casey Heyward and Jason Verrett on the corners.
All told, the Raiders and Cowboys are set up to be forces for years to come. In 2017, they might take a step back before taking giant leaps forward in two very tough divisions.
Power rankings
Top 12 underrated players in NFL today
1. Darius Slay, Detroit Lions
2. Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers
3. Reshad Jones, Miami Dolphins
4. Lavonte David, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5. Eric Reid, San Francisco 49ers
6. Ramon Foster, Pittsburgh Steelers
7. Ron Parker, Kansas City Chiefs
8. Alec Ogletree, Los Angeles Rams
9. Benardrick McKinney, Houston Texans
10. Ryan Kerrigan, Washington Redskins
11. Terron Armstead, New Orleans Saints
12. Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis Colts
Quotable
"“I just decided that last week. Two more years, get my Super Bowl, have a little bit more fun, and then I’m going to go change the world in the mental health space,” Marshall said at the NBC4 Health and Fitness Expo at MetLife Stadium."
– New York Giants wide receiver Brandon Marshall, on his career winding down
Marshall signed a two-year deal this offseason after being released by the Jets, and plans to end his career with Big Blue. The two-time All-Pro and six-time Pro Bowler has 12,061 yards and 82 touchdowns, and now looks for the missing line on his resume: a Super Bowl ring. New York went 11-5 and reached the postseason last year. With Marshall, the Giants might have the man who puts them over the top.
Random stat
The Packers won more playoff games last year (2) than the Cardinals won throughout their entire stay in St. Louis from 1960-88.
Info learned this week
1. Jets made right move by eschewing quarterbacks at draft
On NFL Network, host Rich Eisen questioned why the Jets passed time and again on drafting a quarterback. New York is without much hope at the game’s most important position, trotting out a trio of Josh McCown, Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty.
The Jets are going to be awful this season, but they are set up for a potentially quick turnaround. New York could be in position to draft Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen or another high-rising prospect a year from now. Waiting around might cost Mike Maccagnan and Todd Bowles their jobs, but it was the right move for an organization in desperate need of an overhaul.
2. Patrick Mahomes seeing NFL harder than expected
The Chiefs made a bold move in the draft, trading up from 27th-overall to No. 10 for the chance to draft quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Now, Kansas City is allowing the Texas Tech product to sit behind Alex Smith for a year while he learns Andy Reid’s expansive west coast offense. It sounds like Mahomes could use the time, saying the verbiage is more complicated than he first thought.
This shouldn’t be a shock. Mahomes is simply being more honest than most first-round quarterbacks can afford to be, considering he won’t be starting until 2018, at the earliest. These comments should serve as a guide for the Texans and Bears, who also have young projects at quarterbacks.
We’ve seen players get rushed into starting spots in recent years, only to have disastrous results, including Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Johnny Manziel, Brandon Weeden and others. While there is no guarantee they would have succeeded with time on the bench, giving time to learn complex details could have made the difference.
3. Falcons begin offseason program without Kyle Shanahan
With Shanahan having moved on to become head coach in San Francisco, the Falcons have to find the same effectiveness with new coordinator Steve Sarkisian. The offense averaged more than 30 points per game, leading the league en route to Super Bowl LI.
Atlanta comes back with the same cast of characters on offense, while adding Dontari Poe to the defensive line. The Falcons face the prospect of rebounding from the most painful Super Bowl loss of all-time, but have the talent to make it happen. The long climb backs starts now.
4. Broncos add another QB to mix
Denver made news with its Mr. Irrelevant pick last Saturday, taking Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly, nephew of Hall of Fame quarterback Jim Kelly. The younger Kelly has arm talent to burn, but has endured injury problems and off-field issues, forcing him down draft boards.
Now, Kelly becomes an intriguing option in Denver, but not for this season. As the former Rebels’ star rehabs from a torn ACL, Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch will battle for the starting spot. If you want an interesting option this year as a late-round starting quarterback, think of Nathan Peterman with the Bills. Peterman played in a pro-style system at Pittsburgh and while Tyrod Taylor is a quality signal-caller, he’s been maligned in Buffalo. An injury could open a door wide open.
5. Bengals aim for explosive offense
Cincinnati took a few chances in the draft, nabbing John Ross and Joe Mixon with its first two respective picks. Ross should pair with A.J. Green to give Andy Dalton an explosive combination on the outside, while Mixon joins with Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill in the backfield.
That said, there are real concerns. Ross was banged up throughout his career at Washington, including a torn ACL. Mixon has well-known off-field baggage, including a horrific video that shows the running back punching a woman in the face. This draft could be remembered as one of the best drafts in Marvin Lewis’s tenure, or the final straw.
History lesson
The Cleveland Browns won their last championship in 1964, two years before the Super Bowl era. In 1996, the Browns moved to Baltimore and became the Ravens. The city of Cleveland got their Browns back in the form of an expansion team in 1999, only to see their former team win the Super Bowl in Baltimore in 2000.
Parting shot
After an offseason of uncertainty, the Seahawks are aiming for another NFC West championship and a deep run into the postseason. With Richard Sherman firmly in tow, Seattle looks to get Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor back from injury-ravaged campaigns, restoring the Legion of Boom.
The question remains whether the Seahawks can both get healthy and restore the offensive line to anything resembling decent. If not, Seattle is seeing the beginning of its window slam shut with this iteration of the roster.