MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus May 8

This is the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column, for Monday, May 8th. The article will identify top pitching plays, mid-range salary options, a sneaky pick, and cheap value for the MLB FanDuel pitcher position. Also, we’ll discuss pitchers to avoid in your lineup, or focus on for hitting. Evaluating daily pitching is a crucial part to building your MLB FanDuel lineup for a big pay-day.

Tonight there are only ten MLB games scheduled, giving ten teams the day off. So that presents us with 20 starting pitcher options. Unfortunately, several of the pitching match ups are not ideal, but that will present plenty of great hitting value options for our lineups. But, that presents us with limited ideal picks for pitcher. Here’s a look at the list of games we’ve narrowed our search down to:

WSH Gio González at BAL Kevin Gausman (7:05pm ET)

SF Matt Moore at NYM Jacob deGrom (7:10pm ET)

NYY Masahiro Tanaka at CIN Rookie Davis (7:10pm ET)

TEX Nick Martínez at SD Trevor Cahill (10:10pm ET)

Let’s start by looking at our top scoring, but also more expensive, MLB FanDuel pitcher for Monday night…

Next: Top Scoring Pitcher

Top Scoring MLB FanDuel Pitcher

Full disclosure, I expect tonight’s top pick for pitcher to be chalky. That shouldn’t be too surprising. Jacob deGrom ($10,700) and the New York Mets have an ideal match up tonight. deGrom has been a feast of famine MLB FanDuel pitcher so far this season. Jacob is averaging around 35 MLB FanDuel points per game, but his point history has swung from a floor of zero points against the Marlins, to a ceiling of 58 points against the Marlins and Nationals. So while deGrom is chalky, he also is a bit risky.

Carlos Martinez ($9,500) could be an attractive option tonight too. Martinez has been hot over the last couple of Cardinals starts. But Carlos has also been tops-turvy this year. Also, Martinez is facing a Marlins offense who’s smoking lately.

With Stroman struggling and facing a solid Tribe offense, and Tanaka low seasonal strikeout ratio, I’m back to deGrom as a top option. So why is Jacob so attractive? The Mets are hosting the west coast Giants tonight. The Giants offense has been horrendous this season, currently 27th of 30 teams in total offensive value. The Giants also have a .277 wOBA, 2nd worst in major league baseball ahead of only the Royals.

San Francisco has a .254 BvP batting average against deGrom, but a decent .354 OBP. The Giants also have a decent 22% K ratio against deGrom. But the Giants bats are stone-cold, and deGrom has decent stuff this season. Jacob likely gets between 40-50 MLB FanDuel points on a pricey salary, but he’s one of the best options tonight.

Next: Top Mid-Range Pitcher

Mid-Range Salary Value

The San Diego Padres’ Trevor Cahill ($7,200) is likely the most underrated arm on the mound tonight. Cahill is very cheap for a mid-range salary pick, but as you scroll down the list there are several eye-catching, but uninspiring options. Bauer is having a rough start to the 2017 season, Arriet is pitching in Colorado, Conley isn’t producing, McCarthy has shoulder problems, and Moore and Graveman have bad match ups tonight.

So, I’m down to Cahill. Trevor is emerging as a top pitcher on the Padres roster this year. So far this season, Cahill has 11 K’s per nine innings, a decent three walks per nine innings, and has a 0.60 HR/9 ratio, the lowest among all the starters tonight. Cahill is 2-2 with a solid 3.60 ERA as well.

Tonight, Cahill and the Padres are hosting the Rangers in an unforgiving ball park for hitters like the Rangers. The bats for Texas are struggling since early April. The Rangers have a .300 wOBA, 24th in baseball. Total offensive production lands the Rangers around 23rd in baseball. Also, aside from Beltre, who’s on the DL now, the Rangers have a bad history against Trevor. There’s very good value tonight with Cahill in your lineup at pitcher.

Next: Pitching Value

Pitching Value & Sneaky Pick

Below Cahill’s salary, every pitcher is a great target for hitting, with one exception, Nick Martínez ($6,400). Of my three targets for the pitcher slot tonight, Martinez is the worst. But like Cahill, Nick has an intriguing match up tonight.

Martinez is giving up around two home runs every nine innings, one of the worst HR ratios among tonight’s pitchers. But the Padres aren’t launching many home runs in San Diego, and tonight is a good opportunity for Martinez to chip away at his home run ratio. Also, while Martinez is only getting around five strikeouts per nine innings, the Padres have a 25.1% K ratio, the third worst in baseball, so Nick could be around his seven K total which he had against the Angels on April 28th.

Nick’s 21 MLB FanDuel point-per-game average is also a little misleading. Martinez has only pitched in three games this year, and had a rough -2 point outing against a good Astros lineup in Houston. But in Texas, Martinez had 31 MLB FanDuel points against the Royals and 34 points against the Angels. And in those two games, Nick only gave up four total runs, had just one walk, and ten strikeouts. Martinez also has two quality starts, in three starts this year, a very good QS ratio.

Martinez will likely be off the radar for most MLB FanDuel players, making Nick a great sneaky pick for tonight’s match ups.

Next: Offensive Pitching Target

Offensive Pitching Target

We’re targeting three pitchers tonight for hitting stacks; Nationals vs. Kevin Gausman and Yankees vs. Rookie Davis

The two pitchers I like the least tonight, Gausman and Davis, are matching up against the top to offenses in baseball, Nationals and Yankees. This is ideal for two separate stacks in one lineup, or two separate lineups.

Gasuman has been horrendous most of the season so far. Kevin has an astronomical 7.55 ERA in seven starts and is walking over five batters per nine innings. And tonight, Gausman is throwing to a Nationals lineup with a .363 wOBA, the best in baseball. So if you can afford them, try stacking players like Matt Wieters (C-$2,800), Ryan Zimmerman (1B-$4,600), Daniel Murphy ($4,200), and a surging Anthony Rendon ($3,200). They should all have a great night in Baltimore.

Like Gausman, Davis is off to a rough start this season. Rookie has a 7.36 ERA and is walking a shocking 6+ batters per nine innings. While the Yankees have a slightly lower wOBA, .352, they’re currently the hottest hitting team in baseball and have the top overall WAR. Some attractive stacking options from the Yankees are Starlin Castro (2B-$3,900), Chase Headley (3B-$3,700), Matt Holliday (OF-$3,500), and of course Aaron Judge ($4,500).

With a Nationals/Yankees stack and if one of the value picks land over 40 MLB FanDuel points tonight, you’re going to cash.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Always check MLB lineups throughout the day when playing MLB FanDuel. You can typically find starting pitchers a few days, or day before, each game. But as the season progresses, pitchers develop injuries, sometimes only hours, or less, before a game. So always stay tuned for changes before locking in your lineup. Also, weather events can cancel a game, crushing your entire lineup. So it’s important to become a weather geek, like me, if you want to stack that cash in MLB FanDuel.