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Who would make the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs if they started today?

By Nick Tylwalk

TALLADEGA, AL - MAY 07: Ricky Stenhouse Jr., driver of the #17 Fifth Third Bank Ford, and Kyle Busch, driver of the #18 Skittles Red White & Blue Toyota, lead the field in the final restart at the end of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on May 7, 2017 in Talladega, Alabama. (Photo by Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images)
TALLADEGA, AL - MAY 07: Ricky Stenhouse Jr., driver of the #17 Fifth Third Bank Ford, and Kyle Busch, driver of the #18 Skittles Red White & Blue Toyota, lead the field in the final restart at the end of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on May 7, 2017 in Talladega, Alabama. (Photo by Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images) /
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Some of the usual suspects would be in the playoff field if the NASCAR season ended today, but there would be a few surprises as well.

Even though there’s been a playoff system in place for a few years, this is technically the first year for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. The Chase was a thing until 2017, if you recall.

Yet while the name has changed and stage racing has shaken things up a bit — particularly with the bonus point that comes with a stage win — the basics remain the same. Win and you’re in, probably. Win more than once and you’re playing with house money all through the spring and summer.

So far, only two drivers have that level of comfort. Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson are the only multiple race winners through Talladega, both claiming two victories so far. Thanks to the five bonus playoff points that accompany those wins, they’re also the drivers who would top the pre-playoff positions if the regular season ended right now.

While there’s still plenty of racing left before the championship drive begins (16 races, to be exact), it’s still not too early to discuss who’s in and who’s out of the Cup Series playoffs at the moment. Aside from Keselowski and Johnson, we can break the drivers down into several categories.

The usual suspects

Martin Truex Jr. (one win); Jamie McMurray, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin (in on points)

Truex has been fast just about everywhere and is showing that his performance last year is no fluke. Logano has too, and he’s in very comfortable shape even though his win no longer counts for playoff purposes.

Even if Harvick is getting frustrated by a lack of luck and wins, he’s also sitting pretty right now and it’s likely just a matter of time before he gets a victory. You could say the same for Busch and Hamlin except that Joe Gibbs Racing seems strangely snakebitten, but at least the 18 and 11 have no worries about making the playoffs at the moment.

And maybe McMurray isn’t the first name to come to mind for this group of drivers, but his consistency and ability to rack up top-10 finishes means he belongs.

The young guns

Kyle Larson (one win); Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney (in on points)

This trio of drivers under 25 has been fun to watch. Larson has made a big leap forward in his age 24 season, and he;s been sitting atop the standings for a while.

Elliott has a smoothness that belies his years, and Blaney makes some of the more aggressive moves on the track of anyone in the garage. It would be great if all three made the Cup Series playoffs, and only Blaney is in any kind of danger of falling out of the field right now.

The surprises

Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch (one win each); Clint Bowyer, Trevor Bayne (in on points)

Let’s give a shout out to Roush Fenway Racing, which went from four cars to two before the 2017 season began and seems to be better off for it. Both Stenhouse and Bayne have shown greatly improved speed and results, with Stenhouse getting his first career win at Talladega.

Busch fans will likely protest his appearance in this category, but the truth is he hasn’t been much of a factor except in plate races. Newman and Bowyer are veterans who are enjoying a bit of a resurgence in 2017, with Bowyer nearly equaling Harvick as the top gun of the Stewart-Haas Racing stable.

There hasn’t been the kind of true party-crasher like Chris Buescher was in 2016 earning a win yet … unless you consider Stenhouse that guy.

On the outside looking in

Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr., all the 2017 rookies

Kahne has been just on the edge of relevance in recent weeks, but he can’t seem to break through and actually contend for a win. He’s still in better shape right now than Junior, who isn’t having the sort of swan song he’d like. Kenseth? Tough to say exactly what’s going on with him, though he’s had some misfortune working against him.

This year’s top rookies left Talladega all lined up in the points, with Erik Jones 20th, Daniel Suarez 21st and Ty Dillon 22nd. Of the three, Jones appears most likely to sneak into the playoffs on points, but he’ll need a tad more consistency to do it. He’s also the most likely to muster a victory, though it would not be shocking if all the rookies were winless this year.

Next: 5 takeaways from the 2017 GEICO 500

Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs seeds (after the GEICO 500)

  1. Brad Keselowski, 2 wins, 12 playoff points
  2. Jimmie Johnson, 2 wins, 10 playoff points
  3. Martin Truex Jr., 1 win, 10 playoff points
  4. Kyle Larson, 1 win, 7 playoff points
  5. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., 1 win, 5 playoff points
  6. Ryan Newman, 1 win, 5 playoff points
  7. Kurt Busch, 1 win, 5 playoff points
  8. Kevin Harvick, 3 playoff points
  9. Chase Elliott, 2 playoff points
  10. Ryan Blaney, 2 playoff points
  11. Joey Logano, 1 playoff point
  12. Kyle Busch, 1 playoff point
  13. Denny Hamlin, 1 playoff point
  14. Jamie McMurray
  15. Clint Bowyer
  16. Trevor Bayne

Bayne currently has just a one-point lead on Aric Almirola. The next two drivers in line by points are Kasey Kahne (nine points back) and Matt Kenseth (-18, though he has one playoff point in the bank if he can make the field).

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