MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus May 9

Welcome back to the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column, the Tuesday May 9th edition. This article will focus on the MLB FanDuel MAIN slate of games only. We will pinpoint top pitching plays, mid-range salary options, a sneaky pick, and cheap value for the MLB FanDuel pitcher position. Also, we’ll discuss pitchers to avoid in your lineup, and target for batting. Evaluating daily pitching is a crucial part to building your MLB FanDuel lineup for a big pay-day.

Last night’s pitching suggestions went well. Both deGrom and Cahill were chalky, especially Cahill, but they each yielded 40+ MLB FanDuel points, making Cahill the ideal value pitcher on Monday night. Tonight, we’ll have a similar set-up, where there will be some chalky, but great, top plays and value picks.

We’re back to a full slate of MLB games tonight, but only 13 of the games start after 7pm ET, or for the MLB FanDuel Main slate. There are plenty of big names and hot pitchers tonight, so there’s a lot to review for Tuesday night’s lineups. Here’s a look at the list of games we’ve narrowed our search down to:

WSH Max Scherzer at BAL Udalbo Jiménez (7:05pm ET)

CLE Carlos Carrasco at TOR Mike Bolsinger (7:07pm ET)

KC Chris Young at TB Matt Andriese (7:10pm ET)

ATL Bartolo Colón at HOU Charlie Morton (8:10pm ET)

DET Justin Verlander at ARZ Robbie Ray (9:40pm)

Let’s start by looking at our top scoring, but also more expensive, MLB FanDuel pitcher for Tuesday night…

Next: Top Scoring Pitcher

Top Scoring MLB FanDuel Pitcher

The top two plays tonight are also the two most expensive options at pitcher. Max Scherzer ($11,600) and Carlos Carrasco ($10,300) each have a good match up tonight and are among the top one or two tier pitchers in the majors.

Carrasco is the more attractive option. Carlos is facing a Blue Jays offense now 29th, among 30 teams, in MLB for WAR. The Blue Jays also have a .292 wOBA, 27th in MLB, and a 83 wRC+, 26th in MLB. Pile the terrible production onto a bad 23% K ratio, and you realize you want to target the Blue Jays with a pitcher almost daily.

But Carrasco also has a decent history against this lineup, allowing a .246 batting average and .317 OBP, along with a 33% strikeout rate against the Blue Jays. Those stats may seem decent, but Josh Donaldson is the only Blue Jay who’s hitting well against Carrasco and he’s on the DL. When you take Donaldson’s stats out of the BvP for Carrasco against the Blue Jays, their average plummets to .215.

Carlos is likely going to get between 40+ MLB FanDuel points tonight. And Carlos is $1.3K cheaper than Scherzer. But, keep in mind, because Carrasco is a better value, he’ll also be chalky tonight. If you want to take the contrarian approach, and can afford it, pick Max.

Next: Top Mid-Range Pitcher

Mid-Range Salary Value & Sneaky Pick

Charlie Morton ($7,800) is on the very low-end of a mid-range salary option, but several of the other pitchers between Morton’s salary and climbing up to Carrasco’s salary are in a bad match up situation.

So why did we arrive at Morton? Charlie is quietly rocking the mound since the start of the season. Morton had a couple of sub-par starts in April, but was mostly solid throughout the month. Then on April 28th, Charlie exploded with 12 strikeouts against the A’s in Houston, totaling 51 total MLB FanDuel points. Morton’s ROI over the last several weeks has been impressive. Then Charlie followed the great A’s outing with another gem in Houston against the Rangers, totaling 49 MLB FanDuel points.

Morton now has a 10.3 K/9 inning ratio, 14th among all total major league pitchers this year. Charlie also has a low 0.79 HR ratio, and a decent 3.97 ERA. Historically, this Braves lineup has performed well against Morton, but the Braves offense is now plummeting back down to earth, and Morton is pitching well beyond his historical average at the moment.

Given the BvP history, many MLB FanDuel players may overlook Morton, but his recently history could drive up his ownership tonight. Still, this is one of the better value plays at pitcher tonight.

Sneaky Pick: Robbie Ray ($8,600). Ray has been on fire lately, now with a 12+ K/9 inning strikeout ratio, 4th in MLB. Robbie recently dominated the hot Nats bats in Washington, D.C., totaling 46 MLB FanDuel points. But Ray is pitching in Chase Field, arguably one of the best hitter parks in baseball, besides Coors Field. And the Tigers right-handed bats present enormous risk for picking Ray tonight. But given the risk, most MLB FanDuel players should fade Ray, making him the sneaky pick of the night.

Next: Pitching Value

Pitching Value

We didn’t climb lower than Morton to find our top value among cheap pitchers tonight. Matt Andriese ($7,400) could arguably be listed in the mid-range salary section, but he certainly can’t be avoided as an option tonight.

The Kansas City Royals have the worst offense in baseball. Each night, when you’re building your lineups, one of the first things you should consider is fading all Royals bats, and which pitcher is facing the Royals tonight. The answer for Tuesday is Andriese.

The Royals have a decent 21.2% strikeout ratio, but Andrew is coming from an eight K effort against the Miami Marlins, in Tampa. Matt will take the mound again in Tampa, and has a solid shot at another six to eight strikeouts tonight. Andriese also has a low 3.09 ERA and is facing Chris Young, for the Royals, who hasn’t started a game yet this season.

So it’s likely Matt will have a low ERA tonight along with a win, and quality start. This match up is shaping up to be very similar to the Marlins and Tigers outings, where Andriese provided 55 and 40 MLB FanDuel points. Against a much worse offense, Matt should be on the high-end of that range tonight with a fantastically low $7.4K salary.

Next: Offensive Pitching Target

Offensive Pitching Target

We’re targeting two pitchers tonight for hitting stacks; Reds vs. CC Sabathia and Rockies vs. John Lackey

The Cincinnati Reds are one of the most over-looked offenses in baseball. The Yankees and the Nationals bats have got most of the attention from the MLB FanDuel community so far this season, and for good reason. The Yankees have a remarkable 9.2 WAR, and the Nationals aren’t far behind with 8.3. But the Reds have a 7.2, and are hot lately. Pair the offensive stats from the Reds with a very rocky start for Sabathia, and we have a great Reds stacking option for Tuesday. But make sure you avoid Votto tonight, who has a 50% strikeout ratio against C.C. So target guys like Eugenio Suarez (3B-$3,600), Adam Duvall (OF-$3,700), and Billy Hamilton (OF-$4,100) for great offensive returns tonight.

I’m curious to see the ownership percentages from Coors Field tonight. I could see MLB FanDuel players targeting the Cubs bats against Freeland, but I think the Rockies are more appealing against Lackey. John is giving up a .309 average against this Rockies line, along with a .311 OBP and .515 slugging average. Lackey has also been getting shelled this season, now with a terrible 5.14 ERA. So while they’re expensive, guys like Mark Reynolds ($4,100), Nolan Arenado ($4,700), and Charlie Blackmon ($4,600) should be worth the high price on Tuesday night.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Always check MLB lineups throughout the day when playing MLB FanDuel. You can typically find starting pitchers a few days, or day before, each game. But as the season progresses, pitchers develop injuries, sometimes only hours, or less, before a game. So always stay tuned for changes before locking in your lineup. Also, weather events can cancel a game, crushing your entire lineup. So it’s important to become a weather geek, like me, if you want to stack that cash in MLB FanDuel.