MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Samardzija, Wheeler meet in potential low-scoring affair

Two playoff teams from a year ago, the Giants and Mets, are in early-season holes, with low team batting averages one of the reasons why. Can Tuesday night’s starters, Jeff Samardzija and Zack Wheeler, keep those bats quiet?

Nice win in last night’s Rangers-Padres Under 7.5 bet, as we narrowly hang on thanks to a strong performance from Trevor Cahill. He’s already been featured in this daily column a few times and I’m sure we’ll be relying on him once more very soon. In any event, let’s see what I have on tap for Tuesday.

Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 21-17-3 (55.3%), +250

Yesterday’s Result: Martinez vs Cahill Under 7.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 100 dollars/units

San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets

Jeff Samardzija vs Zack Wheeler

UNDER 7 (+100) (via OddsShark)

It’s a shame that the total for this matchup is as low as 7, as that doesn’t give us the benefit of being able to win with a 4-3 outcome, which you figure you’d deserve with these two starters going at it this evening, but sometimes you just have to work with the line you’ve been dealt.

And it’s still plausible that the second contest in this three-game set between both of last year’s National League Wild Card teams can settle in below that. On one hand, you have Jeff Samardzija going for the Giants, and he’s someone that’s been real hot as of late. Sure, his overall numbers on the year (0-4, 5.03 ERA) aren’t anything to ride home about, but taking a look at his past couple of starts would reveal that The Shark is seemingly on the upswing.

In his last time out, Samardzija enjoyed his best outing on the young season when he dominated the rival Dodgers over eight superb innings. He yielded only one unearned run, allowing just three hits, zero walks and striking out a season-high 11. Before that, the former reliever was also really good against San Diego, holding them to three runs (two earned) in seven solid innings. Thus, it looks like Samardzija has been getting stronger after a concerning first few weeks to the campaign.

The same can be said of Zack Wheeler in his return after missing the prior two seasons due to Tommy John surgery. The former first-round draft pick was still getting re-acclimated to the major leagues after his first pair of outings, but now it looks like he’s starting to return to his old form if his last few assignments are any indication.

Wheeler’s most recent start in Atlanta against the Braves was postponed in the fourth inning (he was actually faring pretty well before that), but previously, the 26-year-old had held his own in back-to-back efforts opposite the hard-hitting Nationals. The Mets went 1-1 in those games, as Wheeler surrendered six runs (five earned) combined over 11 2/3 innings, which is acceptable when pitted against one of the best lineups in the league.

One thing that can severely aid Wheeler in his quest for his first quality start of the year is San Francisco’s struggles at the dish. In fact, the Giants are last in the NL in runs scored (108) and slugging percentage (.342), and second-to-last in batting average (.228) and on-base percentage (.288). Meanwhile, New York is one step up from Giants in the average department with a .230 mark, so that’s something The Shark could potentially feast on.

With both starters headed in the right direction entering tonight’s affair, the under will be a bet worth following on this Tuesday night at Citi Field.

*Always check back to see if additional action has been added.