MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus May 10

Welcome back to the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column for Wednesday, May 10th. We are focused on the MLB FanDuel MAIN slate of games only. We will review the top pitching plays, mid-range salary options, a sneaky pick, and cheap value for the MLB FanDuel pitcher position. Also, we’ll discuss pitchers to avoid in your lineup, and target for batting. Evaluating daily pitching is a crucial part to building your MLB FanDuel lineup for a big pay-day.

Last night’s pitching suggestions did so-so. Andriese and Morton were mid-range salary options yielding 31 to 35 points. But we really missed out on Lackey’s surprising 61 point effort in Coors Field. So we take what we learned from yesterday, and move forward.

Today’s early slate was horrendous, so we’re only focusing on the Main slate options, games starting after 7pm ET. That narrows down our options to only nine games, or 18 pitchers. Form there, we’ll narrow down our search to who we love in lineups tonight, and who we’re going to target for our hitters. Here’s a look at the list of games we’ve narrowed our search down to:

CLE Danny Salazar at TOR Francisco Liriano (7:07pm ET)

SD Luis Perdomo at TEX Yu Darvish (8:05pm ET)

MIN Phil Hughes at CHW Derek Holland (8:10pm ET)

PIT Chad Kuhl at LAD Kenta Maeda (10:10pm ET)

Let’s start by looking at our top scoring, but also more expensive, MLB FanDuel pitcher for Wednesday night…

Next: Top Scoring Pitcher

Top Scoring MLB FanDuel Pitcher

If you’re willing to spend big, and have a few value hitting plays, you should be able to do well with any of the top three most expensive pitching options. Stephen Strasburg ($10,600) and Chris Archer ($10,400) do have some more risk though. The Nationals and Orioles series is looking very Nats/O’s so far. Each game is tight, and each game is coming down to who has the better bullpen. So while Strasburg has been absolutely spectacular against the Orioles so far, he could miss out on the win. But with a win, Strasburg is likely 50+ MLB FanDuel points tonight.

Archer also has a great match up, pitching against the worst hitting team in baseball. Chris is also hotter on the mound lately, piling up eleven strikeouts in his last outing against the Blue Jays. But the Royals bats are starting to show some more pop lately, and Archer could be getting the Royals at the wrong time.

And with Salazar pitching poorly lately, walking too many batters, that leads my search to land on Yu Darvish ($11,200). Darvish is having a strong start to the season, fanning a batter per inning. Yu’s ERA is down to 2.76, and he’s giving up just less than a home run each game. My only concern is Darvish is walking too many batters, eight over his last two games. But Yu has a great match up against the Padres in San Diego. The Padres are hitting worse at home, a team .208 batting average with a .284 OBP. Add those terrible stats to a 25% K ratio, and Darvish looks very appealing tonight, worth his high price. This should be a 60+ MLB FanDuel point play.

Next: Top Mid-Range Pitcher

Mid-Range Salary Value

After a dreadful 0.1 inning, three hits, four walks, five earned runs, and one strike out start to the season, Francisco Liriano ($8,000) has seriously bounced back for the Blue Jays. Liriano has six to ten K’s in three of the last five starts. While Liriano’s ERA is 4.44, that’s largely due to the first game meltdown. Over the last five starts, Francisco hasn’t given up more than three runs, and has allowed only two runs or less in four of those games.

There have been a few high-walk games for Liriano, but he’s striking out hitters over ten times per nine innings, a higher ratio against everyone, except Salazar, starting tonight. Also, given Liriano’s terrible start, and the perception of the Indians offensive, I expect Francisco to be lower owned tonight, in the 3-4% range.

Tonight, Liriano is facing a Cleveland Indians squad who is really struggling against left-handed pitchers. The Indians are only hitting .218 with a .310 OBP. Also, the Indians are hitting worse when away from Progressive Field. While the Tribe are only striking out around 20% of the time, that number climbs to 22% against lefties. Even better, the Indians have a 4% HR rate against right-handed pitchers, but only 2%, cut in half, against lefties. So Liriano is primed for his first 50+ point tonight, with a reasonable $8K salary, and expected low ownership. Don’t sleep on Liriano tonight!

Next: Pitching Value

Pitching Value & Sneaky Pick

I’ve heard a few DFS radio shows talk about how the White Sox could be a good stacking target against Phil Hughes ($6,400). We disagree. Hughes is quietly having a decent 4-1 with a 4.32 ERA season. Hughes has a quality start in three of his six starts. Phil isn’t striking out many batters, around four per game, which is a MLB FanDuel point risk, but he isn’t walking many hitters, one per game, and hasn’t given up many runs lately. Also, the White Sox are the type of lineup Hughes has a good shot at getting a quality start against.

Against the right-hander, the White Sox are only hitting .225 with a .248 OBP and terrible .284 slugging average. That’s very unimpressive. Also, in 102 at-bats, Hughes has only given up six extra base hits, all doubles, and six runs. The White Sox are also among the top five worst lineups in baseball now. So this is a great match up for Hughes, could also garner low ownership, and we should see around a 40 MLB FanDuel point return on a cheap $6.4K salary.

Sneaky Pick: Chad Kuhl ($6,700). Many MLB FanDuel players will be stacking the L.A. Dodgers against Kuhl. The Dodgers have been hot lately, are hitting well at home, and have dominated right-handed hitters. However, the Dodgers offensive stats at home against RHP’s, is very similar to the Red Sox. And Kuhl had a very solid 38 MLB FanDuel point outing against the Red Sox. And we don’t have enough data on Kuhl to know how he’ll do against the Dodgers. So there’s some risk stacking the Dodgers tonight, and picking Chad would be a great sneaky contrarian pick tonight.

Next: Offensive Pitching Target

Offensive Pitching TargetWe’re targeting three pitchers tonight for hitting stacks; Diamondbacks vs. Matt Boyd, Tigers vs. Zack Godley, and Brewers vs. Kyle Kendrick

Neither Boyd or Godley has a history against their opposing lineups tonight. So we have to throw out the BvP category for this match up. While Boyd is having a solid season, he’s facing a D-backs team whose bats are smoking at home. I like the Diamondbacks lineup more against right-handed hitters, so prefer a two-person mini stack with this option.

The Tigers are facing a right-handed Godley in a hitter friendly park, very much like the seven run onslaught against a Ray start yesterday. The Tigers bats should stay hot tonight against Godley and are generally more affordable.

Kendrick’s first outing against the Orioles on May 4th was terrible. Kyle gave up six earned runs on eight hits, two walks, and only managed to get one strikeout for a -3 MLB FanDuel point result. We expect Kendrick to perform a little bitter against the Brewers, but Thames and Braun have a very good history against Kyle in 25 combined at-bats. One or both could go yard tonight against Kendrick’s.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Always check MLB lineups throughout the day when playing MLB FanDuel. You can typically find starting pitchers a few days, or day before, each game. But as the season progresses, pitchers develop injuries, sometimes only hours, or less, before a game. So always stay tuned for changes before locking in your lineup. Also, weather events can cancel a game, crushing your entire lineup. So it’s important to become a weather geek, like me, if you want to stack that cash in MLB FanDuel.