MLB DFS Value Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel May 11th
I’ll be looking to uncover the most obvious MLB DFS Value Plays on each slate, and each site. Value plays will generally consist of under-priced players, or players priced differently on a given site. Some values will be in play on both sites, some will only be values on one specific site. Note that value tends to carry higher ownership and may be worth a fade in specific GPP contests.
Tonight’s slate features nine games, with Colorado (5.2), Los Angeles (5.1), Texas (5.1), and Toronto (4.8), holding the best projected team totals. With high-priced players at Coors Field populating the player pool, finding value will be critical to success tonight. Here a handful of value plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
DraftKings MLB Values:
Derek Holland – CWS (P) – $5200
While the White Soxs may not have the best matchup, Derek Holland is egregiously mispriced on DraftKings tonight. Holland is somewhat of a thin play, considering Minnesota is projected to score 4.2 runs, but at $5200 Holland should be considered. If we look back to his last few outings, he was priced above the $7000 mark and may now benefit from a discount of roughly $2000. Given Minnesota’s projected lineup, Holland could be set up to record a fair amount of strikeouts, with Minnesota batters striking out much more often against lefties, like Holland. I have Holland projected at six to seven strikeouts, so if he can keep the score in check, he should be able to offer value at this price.
Yunel Escobar – LAA (3B) – $3200
Yunel Escobar is another thin play, but he’s underpriced on DraftKings relative to FanDuel. Escobar should be leading off tonight and may be poised for a big game, given his recent batted ball stats. In the last 15 days, Escobar’s distance is up 23 feet, his hard hit percentage is up 9%, and his exit velocity is up 3 MPH, over his yearly averages.
FanDuel MLB Values:
Trea Turner – WAS (SS) – $3700
Trea Turner is much cheaper on FanDuel tonight, and offers value against the righty, Dylan Bundy. Turner has had more success against righties this year, with a .398 wOBA split and a .246 ISO split. He may also offer some hidden value given his base stealing ability. Turner has averaged .39 stolen bases per game and this upside is not normally factored in by the sites’ pricing algorithms.
Arizona base steals – A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Owings
Arizona has a few batters who not only have power upside, but also give stolen base upside. As I mentioned, base stealers are often not priced up with the same weight as power hitters, thus providing us with a buying opportunity. Arizona will face the righty, Gerrit Cole tonight, who has notoriously struggled against base stealers. Cole allowed 18 stolen bases over the course of 21 starts last year and has allowed eight stolen bases over his first seven starts of this season. If Cervelli is behind the dish, this would be an added bonus, as he allowed 81% of stolen base attempts to be successful last year.
Next: MLB FanDuel Daily Pitching Focus
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests today and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!