We’re back with another MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column. This is the Thursday, May 11th edition. Again, we’re only focused on the MLB FanDuel MAIN slate of games. We’ll continue to review top pitching plays, identify the best mid-range salary options, tag a sneaky pick, and find a cheap value for the MLB FanDuel pitcher position. Finally, we’ll discuss the pitchers to avoid for your lineup, and target for your hitters. As we always say, evaluating daily pitching is a vital part of building your MLB FanDuel lineup for a big pay-day.
Yesterday, Darvish and Liriano didn’t play out the way we wanted. Liriano was especially disappointing and pending a juicy match up, we’re going to fade Liriano more in the future. We did highlight Archer as a good pick, and he turned out to be the best option of the night. So we’re take what we learned from last night and press forward.
There are eleven games on the MLB schedule tonight, and only nine games for the Thursday night Main slate. So we have 18 pitchers to pick through. Unfortunately, there are several great pitching options, but many are facing each other, which puts the 12 MLB FanDuel point win at risk in each case. But we should still have a few slam dunk options, and several value picks for the night. Here’s a look at the list of games we’ve narrowed our search down to:
MIN Phil Hughes at CHW Derek Holland (8:10pm ET)
LAD Hyun Jin Ryu at COL Tyler Anderson (8:40pm ET)
PIT Gerrit Cole at ARZ Zack Greinke (9:40pm ET)
DET Michael Fulmer at LAA JC Ramírez (10:07pm ET)
CIN Bronson Arroyo at SF Ty Blach (10:15pm ET)
Let’s start by looking at our top scoring, but also more expensive, MLB FanDuel pitcher for Thursday night…
Next: Top Scoring Pitcher
Top Scoring MLB FanDuel Pitcher
If you look at the advanced metrics for the starting pitchers tonight, Michael Pineda ($8,600) should be a popular, and likely chalky, option tonight. Pineda has a silly 11+ K/9 ratio, the lowest walk ratio on the slate, and the best SIERA, 2.49. But, Pineda is facing a hot Astros lineup, and his BvP against this lineup isn’t attractive. In 70 at-bats, the Astros are hitting .300, with a .333 OBP, and a very impressive .600 slugging average. We should see the Astros hit a few home runs off Pineda tonight and I’m fading him for that reason.
If Dallas Keuchel ($10,500) wasn’t in New York facing the hot Yankees lineup, I’d immediately want Keuchel in my lineup. Kechel is locked-in this season, and has a great BvP against this lineup. But BvP can be irrelevant if a lineup is hot.
I also really like Michael Fulmer ($9,400) tonight. Fulmer has a great match up on the road in L.A. against the Angels. Fulmer is a top eight SIERA heading into tonight’s action, and matches up very well against an Angels lineup whose 22nd in MLB in wRC+. But the problem with Fulmer is that JC Ramírez ($7,000) matches up almost as perfectly against the Tigers. So Fulmer is an attractive but risky pick.
Zack Greinke ($10,200) has a similar problem to Fulmer, pitching against a good Gerrit Cole ($9,200). But Greinke has a better match up and advantage than Fulmer. Greinke is doing incredibly well this year at home in Chase Field. That’s very impressive considering how difficult it’s been to pitch in Chase Field this year. Also, the field will have the roof open, which tends to add more advantage to the hitters, but Greinke has still been able to manage that hurdle. So Cole is more likely to struggling tonight, giving Greinke the win. If you can afford him, try to pay up for Greinke, who has the 2nd best SIERA among the starting pitchers tonight.
Next: Top Mid-Range Pitcher
Mid-Range Salary Value & Sneaky Pick
There are good stacking options tonight, but they’re going to be expensive, especially in Coors Field. So unfortunately, most of the top pitchers tonight for MLB FanDuel are too expensive to grab the top stacks, and we’re going to dig for sneaky value picks
We already hinted to the potential value of JC Ramírez ($7,000) tonight. Unfortunately for Fulmer, Ramirez matches up against the Tigers almost as well as Fulmer matches up against the Angels. But Ramirez is a right-handed pitcher, less well-known than Fulmer, and most MLB FanDuel players will likely fade him, making JC a sneaky and big value pick tonight. With Ramirez you’re going to be able to stack Coors and Chase field bats.
So why is Ramirez a good option? So far this season, JC actually has a better SIERA than Fulmer, now at 3.74. Ramirez has one of the better strikeout ratios, at 24%, tonight, a low walk ratio, and gets a lot of ground balls. JC is giving up less than one home run per nine innings, one of the lowest home run ratios among the starters tonight. There isn’t enough AB’s to consider the BvP, so we throw that out, and love the great upside Ramirez provides tonight.
If you’re stacking expensive bats, JC is your top value tonight, and is sneaky with likely low ownership.
Next: Pitching Value
Pitching Value
Yesterday’s Twins and White Sox matchup was postponed. So we’re coming right back to Phil Hughes ($6,400) for our cheap value tonight. As we said yesterday, we’re continuing to hear a few DFS radio shows talk about how the White Sox could be a good stacking target against Hughes. We disagree.
Hughes is quietly having a decent 4-1 with a 4.32 ERA season. Hughes has a quality start in three of his six starts. Phil isn’t striking out many batters, around four per game, which is a MLB FanDuel point risk, but he isn’t walking many hitters, one per game, and hasn’t given up many runs lately. Also, the White Sox are the type of lineup Hughes has a good shot at getting a quality start against.
Against the right-hander, the White Sox are only hitting .225 with a .248 OBP and terrible .284 slugging average. That’s very unimpressive. Also, in 102 at-bats, Hughes has only given up six extra base hits, all doubles, and six runs. The White Sox are also among the top five worst lineups in baseball now. So this is a great match up for Hughes, could also garner low ownership, and we should see around a 40 MLB FanDuel point return on a cheap $6.4K salary.
Next: Offensive Pitching Target
Offensive Pitching TargetWe’re targeting four pitchers tonight for hitting stacks; Rockies vs. Hyun Jin Ryu, Dodgers vs. Tyler Anderson, Diamondbacks vs. Gerrit Cole, and Giants vs. Bronson Arroyo
It’s going to be chalky because it’s obvious to many MLB FanDuel players, but it’s hard to ignore the Rockies and Dodgers in Coors Field tonight. Both teams have hot bats, they’re in an ideal hitting environment, and Anderson and Jin Ryu are struggling this year, and won’t pitch well in Colorado tonight. They’re expensive, but should yield high point returns.
Similar to the Coors Field situation, Chase Field is a great place to target stacks. The Diamondbacks offense has been great this year, and while Cole is having a decent season, he’s going to struggle to keep the ball on the right side of the wall with the roof open in Arizona tonight.
In San Francisco tonight, you could probably stack Reds or Giants. I’m going with the contrarian pick, stacking the Giants. Arroyo hasn’t pitched well in a while, giving up almost two home runs again, has a low K ratio, and is walking around three per game. I know the Giants hitting has struggled, but they have a fantastic BvP against Arroyo, hitting a .342 batting average, a .413 OBP, and a monster .658 slugging percentage. Bronson has given up almost as many home runs to the Giants as he has strikeouts. This is an affordable sneaky stack tonight, making one of the more expensive pitching options easier to afford.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Always check MLB lineups throughout the day when playing MLB FanDuel. You can typically find starting pitchers a few days, or day before, each game. But as the season progresses, pitchers develop injuries, sometimes only hours, or less, before a game. So stay tuned for changes before locking in your lineup. Also, weather events can cancel a game, crushing your entire lineup. So it’s important to become a weather geek, like me, if you want to stack that cash in MLB FanDuel.
Follow us on twitter, @fantasycpr, for updates as we get closer to lineup lock time. Good Luck today FanDuelers!