MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Will perfect Eduardo Rodriguez 2017 unders run continue Thursday in Milwaukee?

The Red Sox and Brewers wrap up their three-game interleague set on Thursday afternoon, and the pitching matchup could have you thinking under.

Coming off a loss in last night’s Orioles-Nationals Under 8 bet, I seek to get us back in the win column with what I feel is a really solid bet to begin Thursday’s slate.

Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 21-18-4 (53.8%), +130

Yesterday’s Result: Miley vs Strasburg Under 8 (Loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 100 dollars/units

Boston Red Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers

Eduardo Rodriguez vs Jimmy Nelson

UNDER 9 (-120) (via OddsShark)

Arguably one of the most underrated starting pitchers in the big leagues going right now is Red Sox left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, who has looked real sharp in the early going while seeing the under go a perfect 5-0 each time he starts on the rubber.

The 24-year-old Rodriguez has allowed three runs or fewer in all but one of his five starting assignments, with his last three each registering as a quality start. Perhaps most impressively, Rodriguez has logged 38 strikeouts in just 29 1/3 innings of work, picking up at least six strikeouts in his last four starts.

The Brewers have a sneaky good lineup but their glaring weakness is that they’re prone to the whiff, ranking fourth in the majors as a team in strikeouts. We may also benefit from budding star Eric Thames not being in the lineup today, too.

The other starting hurler in this affair, Jimmy Nelson, also commands your attention in the discussion of underrated pitchers.

While he doesn’t sport standout numbers like his counterpart does, Nelson is still a guy who has been knocking on the door of making it as a consistently quality pitcher for awhile, and his last performance might indicate he’s headed back in that direction.

It was a rain-shortened three innings in Pittsburgh last Friday, but Nelson looked really strong, yielding just one baserunner, who reached via error and would be quickly erased anyway. I’ve preached this before and it’s worth emphasizing that Nelson has good, above-average stuff, and he’s someone that’s just been riddled with some bad luck more than most.

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With the game at Miller Park, that’s another factor that could enable a solid outing from Nelson. For his career, the five-year veteran is literally about a full run better at home (3.94 ERA) compared to on the road (4.95 ERA), with a considerably better WHIP (1.27 in home starts; 1.54 in away starts) as well.

In a day game after a night game Thursday setting from Milwaukee, look for Rodriguez and Nelson to have the advantage in pacing this game to an under.

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