MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus May 12

Start your weekend with another MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column, the Friday, May 12th edition. We will review top pitching plays, identify the best mid-range salary options, tag a sneaky pick, and find a cheap value for the MLB FanDuel pitcher position. Finally, we’ll discuss the pitchers to avoid for your lineup, and target for your hitters. As we always say, evaluating daily pitching is a vital part of building your MLB FanDuel lineup for a big pay-day.

We loved Greinke yesterday, and that play worked out well. With a couple of hot value options and a mini-stack or two, you probably had a great pay-day. If you played Ramirez, like I did, in a few lineups, he was disappointing. But we knew there was some risk there. So I’ll take the winnings from Greinke, the losses from Ramirez, and move on to Friday.

We have a full slate of 15 games on the MLB schedule tonight. That means we have 30 pitchers to review for our lineups tonight, and overwhelming number. However, many of the pitching options, and match ups, are unappealing. So it wasn’t too hard to pinpoint the arms we like tonight, and the stacks we’re targeting. Here’s a look at the list of games we’ve narrowed our search down to:

SD Jhoulys Chacin at CHW Miguel González (8:10pm ET)

CHC Eddie Butler at STL Mike Leake (8:15pm ET)

LAD Clayton Kershaw at COL Tyler Chatwood (8:40pm ET)

PIT Tyler Glasnow at ARZ Patrick Corbin (9:40pm ET)

Let’s start by looking at our top scoring, but also more expensive, MLB FanDuel pitcher for Friday night…

Next: Top Scoring Pitcher

Top Scoring MLB FanDuel Pitcher

We hadn’t seen Clayton Kershaw ($9,800) pitch for a while in Coors Field before his start on April 8th. After the game, it was clear even Kershaw was fallible in Colorado. Kershaw failed to acquire a quality start, his only QS miss this season, gave up eight hits and four earned runs. Clayton also missed out on the win. But in six innings, Kershaw was still able to get six strikeouts. So it wasn’t a terrible 24 MLB FanDuel result, but nowhere near what we demand from Clayton for the price we typically pay.

So I expect most MLB FanDuel players to fade Kershaw, likely the only time this season, for tonight’s slate. But that could be a mistake. Johnny Cueto ($9,700) has a bad match up in San Francisco against one of the top hitting offenses so far this season, the Reds. Ervin Santana ($8,800) and Lance McCullers Jr. ($8,800) also have bad match ups on the road. So that leaves us with Rick Porcello ($9,500) or Kershaw as top options, and Porcello pitched very poorly against the Rays last time out, giving up eight runs and garnering only 4 MLB FanDuel points.

So we’re back to Kershaw, who’s available at around a $2K+ discount tonight, due to the Coors Field conditions. We understand there’s risk with this pick, but this is a rare opportunity to get Clayton with a big discount, with the potential to get 60+ points. Yes, Kershaw may struggle to keep the ball on the right side of the wall in Colorado tonight, but you’re taking that risk with most of your options tonight, and Kershaw clearly has the greatest upside. Build at least one of your lineups with Clayton as your pitcher tonight.

Next: Top Mid-Range Pitcher

Mid-Range Salary Value & Sneaky Pick

There’s a lot of chatter about the Bundy and Duffy match up tonight. Several MLB FanDuel players love Bundy, as he’s been hot lately, against a terrible Royals offense. But others like Duffy, a good pitcher starting to emerge as the season develops. For those reasons, I hate both of them. It’s hard to tell who’s going to get the win, and with the Royals bats coming off a hot game, either pitcher could be a surprise bust today. I‘m fading both Bundy and Duffy today.

Patrick Corbin ($7,600) is on the low-end of the mid-range salary pitchers list. I was going to target Corbin as sneaky, but as I’m listening to DFS shows and reading articles this morning, I’m realizing Corbin may no longer be a sneak pick. The word is getting out quickly. But, I still expect low ownership tonight with so many other more flashy options among the pitchers available tonight.

Corbin is only 2-4 this year in seven starts, but one of those games was in Coors Field, and I’m going to ignore the April 4th game against the Giants which he bounced back from nicely. Still, most of Corbin’s games ended with a quality start, he can get you eight to nine strike outs against bad teams like the Pirates, and should get the win tonight. Corbin is a 50 MLB FanDuel point potential on a cheap $7.6K salary.

Sneaky Pick: Another pitcher who will likely get overlooked tonight is Mike Leake ($8,600). Leake has a decent 3.79 SIERA, tied for 7th with Tomlin among all the pitchers tonight. But most MLB FanDuel players will likely be scared off by the Cubs match up.

This match up is in Saint Louis, so there’s no home field advantage for the Cubs, and they have a wRC+ of 92, on the bottom side of MLB offensive value. So Leake has a better match up than it seems. While Mike isn’t going to produce a lot of strikeouts, he can get six to eight in a game when he’s at his best, and should keep the Cubs to a low scoring game, along with a quality start and win. Leake is a sneaky way to get 40+ points on a mid-range value and with low ownership.

Next: Pitching Value

Pitching Value

Not cheaper than Corbin, but entering the ‘cheap’ range is Miguel González ($7,400). It’s doubtful many MLB FanDuel players are attracted to Gonzalez’s 4.69 SIERA heading into this match up, 22nd among 30 pitchers tonight. But Miguel’s stats were decimated by the right-hand hitting Tigers on April 30th. That’s isn’t a great example of Miguel’s season so far.

In Baltimore, while Gonzalez didn’t get the win, he was able to produce a quality start against a solid offense on the road, with five strikeouts and only one walk. And in New York on April 18th, Gonzalez fanned four batters, only gave up one run, went 8.1 innings, and got the win and quality start for 44 MLB FanDuel points.

Tonight, Gonzalez is facing a Padres team who look like the Royals. And Miguel is at home, like his Royals match up on April 24th were his landed 49 MLB FanDuel points. Miguel had only five strikeouts in that game, but only gave up two hits and one walk, with no runs and another W and QS.

So we know Gonzalez has the potential to get 8 innings against teams like the Padres, a rare feat lately and at this stage of the season. Also, Miguel is likely to keep the hits, walks, and runs to a low-level. Even with only around four to five K’s, another win and quality start for Gonzalez over the Padres tonight gets us almost 50 MLB FanDuel points on a very cheap $7.4K salary.

Next: Offensive Pitching Target

Offensive Pitching Target

Nationals vs. Nick Pivetta

Nick has only had two starts for the Philadelphia Phillies, but this is the second time the Nats will see Pivetta. In his last outing, he only had 21 MLB FanDuel points as a result of giving up nine hits, and four earned runs in five innings. He was able to generate six strikeouts, but that didn’t stop the Nats lineup. Pivetta is a hard fade again tonight against one of the most potent offenses in MLB now. And we should target a Nats stack in one of our lineups including guys like Harper, Zimmerman, Rendon, Werth, Murphy, or Turner. The only down side is that none of these guys are cheap.

Diamondbacks vs. Tyler Glasnow

Glasnow is a rookie prospect for the Pirates, but it’s clear he has a long way to go before he’s groomed into a top of the rotation starting pitcher. Even in Tyler’s wins, he’s looked pretty bad. Glasnow will get you four to six strikeouts, but in a park like Chase Field, with the roof open tonight, Tyler is very likely to give up a lot of hits to guys like Owings, and Goldschmidt or Lamb are each likely to go yard tonight.

White Sox vs. Jhoulys Chacin

While I typically avoid stacking White Sox hitters, as their offense has been impotent this season, I love them against guys like Chacin on the road. Jhoulys has had good results when pitching in a poor hitting park in San Diego. But on the road, Chacin has given up as much as seven to nine earned runs in a game, and has struggled against teams like the Braves. Cabrera should stay hot tonight, and sneaky picks like Anderson could help you build more value into your lineup.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Always check MLB lineups throughout the day when playing MLB FanDuel. You can typically find starting pitchers a few days, or day before, each game. But as the season progresses, pitchers develop injuries, sometimes only hours, or less, before a game. So stay tuned for changes before locking in your lineup. Also, weather events can cancel a game, crushing your entire lineup. So it’s important to become a weather geek, like me, if you want to stack that cash in MLB FanDuel.