MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Clayton Kershaw seeks to ring up another under against the Rockies

Whenever Clayton Kershaw takes the hill, the under is usually a good idea, and given his career numbers against the Rockies, bettors might want to think about making that bet this evening with the line at 10.

Always nice to pick up a win with one of your favorite pitchers going, and that was exactly the case for me yesterday in that under featuring Jimmy Nelson, who hopefully continues to ascend again from here on out. Let’s see if we can keep that momentum with over/unders into the weekend.

Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 22-18-4 (55%), +230

Yesterday’s Result: Rodriguez vs Nelson Under 9 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 100 dollars/units

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies

Clayton Kershaw vs Tyler Chatwood

UNDER 10 (-110) (via OddsShark)

It’s quite rare to see an over/under bet this high that involves the great Clayton Kershaw, and it only happens when the star left-hander takes the rubber at Coors Field. But even then, the line will usually settle in around 9/9.5, so to get that extra half-run in tonight’s affair could be key for an under.

Everyone already knows about Kershaw’s amazing numbers over the years, so let’s examine his work opposite the Rockies throughout his career: 34 starts, 19-6 record, 3.15 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .220 batting average against and 239 strikeouts in 214 1/3 innings of work.

In other words, just like against the rest of his divisional foes, Kershaw has looked masterful when pitted versus the Rockies, and he’s found similar results thus far in 2017, too. The former NL MVP and Cy Young award winner has already faced Colorado twice, churning out a 4.15 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and a sparkling 16/1 K/BB ratio over 13 innings. Oh, and the under went 2-0 in those games.

There’s plenty of reason to believe Kershaw can notch one of his usual efforts tonight, as Rockies hitters have a hard time with the 33-year-old on the rubber. Several of their main boppers — particularly Charlie Blackmon (8-for-36, .222), Mark Reynolds (1-for-14, .071), Carlos Gonzalez (4-for-19, .211) and Ian Desmond (1-for-23, .043) — have all struggled with the Dodgers ace on the rubber.

If things work out as they usually do for Kershaw, that means we’ll only need some decent work from Rockies right-hander Tyler Chatwood, and given his career numbers versus the Dodgers, it would seem he has a pretty good chance of coming through for under backers in that regard.

Although he’s 4-6 in 11 career assignments opposing Los Angeles, Chatwood actually has fared relatively well in those starts, posting a 3.52 ERA and surrendering only six homers. The latter stat could really be crucial if it holds up this evening in Colorado.

At the end of the day, this seemingly figures to boil down to Kershaw and how successful he is in his third outing against the Rockies this season. If he’s on his game as usual, we’ll have plenty of room to work with concerning Chatwood, and that could make all the difference for the under.

*Always check back to see if additional action has been added.