MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Two Opening Day starters meet Saturday night in South Beach with a high line attached
By Matt Zylbert
Julio Teheran starts for the Braves tonight opposite Edinson Volquez and the Marlins in South Beach, and with a high over/under line to work with, the under looks like a solid play.
OK, nice win last night as we hang on with the Kershaw vs. Chatwood Under 10 bet, mostly thanks to the usual stellar work from Clayton Kershaw. We’ve got some momentum building right now, so let’s try to keep it going through Saturday.
Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 23-18-4 (56.1 percent) +330
Yesterday’s Result: Kershaw vs. Chatwood Under 10 (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 100 dollars/units
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
Julio Teheran vs Edinson Volquez
UNDER 9 (-110) (via OddsShark)
It’s not often you see games at pitcher-friendly Marlins Park draw an over/under line this high, but with scoring and home runs up compared to when this venue first opened up in 2012, it’s starting to become more commonplace.
When it happens, though, the lines-makers could be leaving themselves prone to a decisive under loss, which may be the case this evening when two solid established starters go at it, as Julio Teheran battles Edinson Volquez.
Teheran, making his 16th career start opposite the Fish, knows this particular opponent very well. In the previous 15 efforts, the 26-year-old right-hander posted some respectable numbers (5-4, 3.46 ERA, 82/24 K/BB ratio in 93 2/3 innings), but it’s more noteworthy what he’s done in his assignments in South Beach.
In fact, Teheran has taken on seven assignments at Marlins Park, en route to going 4-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 31/12 K/BB ratio over 44 1/3 total innings. While he hasn’t looked as sharp as of late, perhaps a date with a familiar foe whom he’s had success against can get him going back in the right direction. Given the high line, there’s also some room for error concerning Teheran’s prospects.
Meanwhile, Volquez will be making his first start since landing on the disabled list following his May 2 outing versus Tampa Bay, and while that can sometimes be a tough variable to deal with, a stint on the sidelines may end up benefiting Volquez right away.
That’s because the 13-year veteran issued at least four walks in each of his last four starts prior to being placed on the 10-day DL with a blister on his thumb, but fortunately for us, he’s ready to be activated right away. The little bit of extra time away from the mound could potentially sort of reset Volquez mentally after going through some struggles, as he was doing fine in his first few starts of the campaign.
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The bottom line with an under bet like this in such a friendly environment for pitchers is that all it could take is one standout outing from either starting pitcher, and considering who we’re working with here and the spot that they’re each in, there’s a fine chance of that happening. With that in mind and a good amount of runs to play with, this looks like a promising under.
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