MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Bartolo Colon, Mike Bolsinger should have bettors thinking ‘over’
By Matt Zylbert
The Braves and Blue Jays begin a four-game, home-and-home interleague series Monday evening in Toronto, and with Bartolo Colon and Mike Bolsinger slated to kick things off, there might be a healthy amount of runs on the scoreboard.
Ah, couldn’t pull off the weekend sweep yesterday, as Mets-Brewers Under 8.5 fails to get it done with Jacob deGrom and Wily Peralta on the hill. Nonetheless, I believe I can start us out on the right foot in the third week of May.
Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 24-19-4 (55.8%), +325
Yesterday’s Result: deGrom vs Peralta Under 8.5 (Loss)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 100 dollars/units
Atlanta Braves @ Toronto Blue Jays
Bartolo Colon vs Mike Bolsinger
OVER 9 (-110) (via OddsShark)
When the Braves inked veteran and 2016 All-Star Bartolo Colon to a one-year, $12.5 million contract in the first week of the free agent signing period back in November, they certainly expected much better than what they’ve received from the 43-year-old right-handed wonder.
Through his first seven starts, Atlanta has gotten an awful return on their investment, as Colon miraculously sports the worst ERA in baseball (7.22) out of all the 99 qualified major league starters. In the process, he’s registered the eighth-highest batting average against (.301) and sixth-highest opponents’ OPS (.895) while holding just a 6.05 K/9 rate, which stands as the 14th-lowest of all starters.
Unfortunately for the Braves, Colon hasn’t really improved, with his ERA actually rising after each of his prior four outings, over which he’s allowed at least four runs apiece. In his most recent trip to the mound last Tuesday, the 21-year veteran was rocked for a season-high eight runs.
Given that Colon is about to face a hot Blue Jays club — one that has scored 29 runs during its current five-game winning streak — it would seem more unlikely than not that he’s able to just suddenly flip the page, especially with tonight’s assignment not having the benefit of emanating from a National League park.
So not only might Toronto strike for a crooked number, but the Braves will have that potential as well when they take on 29-year-old Mike Bolsinger, making his second start of the campaign.
The former Arizona Diamondback actually fared just fine in his season debut last week despite being on the wrong side of a 6-0 defeat, surrendering two runs on three hits and four walks in 5 2/3 innings opposite the Indians, striking out four as well.
But even so, if you’ve seen Bolsinger pitch, you know he won’t sustain that for long. While he did experience some success in his sophomore season in 2015, when he produced a 3.62 ERA in 21 starts with the Dodgers, Bolsinger predictably regressed and only lasted all of six starts a year ago, ending up with a 6.83 ERA and 1.52 WHIP before spending the rest of his season in the minors. And now for the first time, he’s in the American League, which could only prove to be more difficult.
The Braves have some dangerous hitters and, like Toronto, are starting to improve in their play again, taking two out of three in Miami over the weekend and giving them a much-needed series win after dropping six in a row beforehand. With both clubs seemingly back on the way up and each trotting out a hittable starter for this evening’s opener, runs could be oozing for an over.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Indians
Chris Archer vs Carlos Carrasco
OVER 7.5 (+100) (via OddsShark)
Sometimes, there are shady lines brought out by the lines-makers that exist beyond reason, yet seemingly more times than not, it will end up working out in favor of Las Vegas.
Chalk this particular over/under potentially as one such scenario, considering the two hurlers that are set to go at it in tonight’s series opener between the Rays and Indians.
On one hand, you have Carlos Carrasco, who has been the best pitcher for the defending American League champions through the first month-and-a-half of the season. Not only that, the under has hit in all seven of Carrasco’s starts, with each of those games totaling seven runs or fewer, so knowing that, why would the lines-makers then slap on an over/under line of 7.5 when he’s set to match up with a fellow ace-caliber pitcher?
That, of course, would be Chris Archer, owner of a 3.04 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, not to mention a 59/16 K/BB ratio in his 53 1/3 innings of work. After enduring the worst full season of his six-year career in 2016, Archer has bounced back very nicely.
But can both guys continue pitching in the manner that they have been? Well, with Carrasco, considering he’s yet to surrender more than three runs in any of his starts, the 30-year-old right-hander is due for some type of off outing, and if it’s going to happen, his career splits indicate it might be more likely to occur at home than on the road. After all, Carrasco sports a career 4.46 ERA at Progressive Field, easily bested by his 3.13 ERA in away games. Plus, the Rays are third in the AL in runs scored.
As for Archer, he is of the opposite variety, sporting a worse ERA on the road (3.81) compared to at home (3.17) since first debuting during the 2012 season, and he’ll also be taking on an opponent that has given him some trouble. In fact, the Indians are a perfect 5-0 when Archer takes the hill, with the right-hander having an unsightly 5.14 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in those assignments. Thus, while it may not seem obvious, the over could be a solid bet.
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