From envelopes to ping-pong balls: The evolution of the NBA Draft Lottery
Tonight, representatives from 14 NBA teams will bite their nails, fidget with papers and, depending on the bounce of a few ping-pong balls, either cry tears of happiness or pound their fist on the table in frustration. There’s nothing quite like the NBA Draft Lottery.
Though the draft lottery system isn’t exclusively unique to the NBA, the league’s annual lottery seems to be in a class all it’s own.
It could be partially due to being the first — the NBA instituted the lottery in 1985 while the NHL (1995) and WNBA (2010) followed — or it could be the pomp and circumstance associated. The NBA has made a bunch of dudes sitting down waiting for someone to open an envelope one of the most compelling, must-see TV events in the sports calendar.
Instituted in 1985, the NBA Draft Lottery aimed to prevent what San Diego Clippers owner Donald Sterling proclaimed, “…win by losing.” Yes, tanking existed before the Sam Hinkie Philadelphia 76ers. In fact, it was more explicit and worse in those days.
After two years of successful losing by the Houston Rockets yielded them big men Ralph Sampson and Hakeem Olajuwon via the NBA’s coin-flip system, other teams took notice. Accusations were everywhere that the Rockets were losing on purpose to secure the top spot:
"“The coin toss was criticized the last two seasons, when Houston finished last in the Western Conference both seasons and won the flip. There was talk around the league that the Rockets had intentionally lost games to give themselves the shot at the No. 1 pick.” – Sam McManis, Los Angeles Times (May 12, 1985)"
The most memorable example of the Rockets potential tanking came when Rockets coach Bill Fitch thought it’d be a good idea to play 38-year-old, one-foot-out-the-door Elvin Hayes 52 minutes in the Rockets’ second to last game of the season. The Rockets lost by 1 and Hayes scored 16 points on 7-20 shooting.
Hayes, Fitch and the Rockets would follow that up the next night as Hayes played a much-more reasonable 35 minutes. Those two games were Hayes’ highest minutes output of the year. The Rockets lost by 21 in that final game, securing their spot as the worst team in the league.
Hayes would retire from the league a few days later.
The NBA and newly-minted commission David Stern were looking for an option that was more fair to teams that had missed the playoffs but also one that would incentives more teams to try and make the playoffs.
Stern and Rick Welts, then-NBA marketing director, didn’t want the lottery to be a big deal or a spectacle:
"“We’re trying to play down the lottery. When the board of governors voted for it, we thought about what would be the most efficient way to do it, without a lot of hype and making it into a circus.” –Rick Welts"
Whether you believe that or not is up to you but keep in mind the NBA credentialed more than 100 media and invited another 100 guests.
Even if Welts and Stern did want the lottery to be downplayed, it was anything but. The grandiose halftime show—complete with the mustachioed Pat O’Brien— became infamous for the controversy and conspiracy surrounding the New York Knicks lottery win and subsequent drafting of franchise cornerstone Patrick Ewing.
The NBA’s lottery system maintained stability until 1987, when the NBA modified the system so that only the first three picks were determined by the lottery. This was a drastic change from the previous system that gave every lottery team equal odds at the number one overall pick. In this new system, those remaining non-playoff teams who did not get chosen into the first three would select in reverse order of their win-loss records.
The lottery as we know it today was set in place in 1990.
It was then that the NBA gave the team with the worst record in the league the best chance of landing the number one overall pick. In this new system, the worst team would get 11 out of 66 chances for the first overall pick. NBA also switched from the much-maligned envelopes to the now-traditional ping-pong balls. Drawings were done behind closed doors with the only public face of the lottery being the announcement of which team landed where.
The NBA would tweak the lottery again in 1993 after the Orlando Magic — with only 1.52 percent odds to win the lottery — received the number one overall pick. The Magic, who had ended the season just out of the NBA playoffs with a 41-41 record, were able to add the number one overall pick to a decent core led by last year’s number one selection Shaquille O’Neal.
The league would tweak odds slightly following the Magic’s lottery win.
Under the revised system, the team with the worst record in the league had a 25 percent chance of obtaining the first overall pick while the best non-playoff team had their odds dropped from 1.5 percent to 0.5 percent.
The Magic remain the NBA’s biggest lottery upset though the 2008 Chicago Bulls (1.7 percent) and 2014 Cleveland Cavaliers (1.7 percent) follow close behind.
In 1999, the Charlotte Hornets jumped all the way to the third spot in the draft despite being the best non-playoff team in the league and holding 1.83 percent odds of ending in the top three.
In the year’s following Orlando’s improbable win, the lottery seemed to find stability with the Milwaukee Bucks and Golden State Warriors grabbing the top spots with 16.3% and 9.4% probability respectively.
In 1995, the NBA expanded, adding two new teams to the fold: Toronto Raptors and Vancouever Grizzlies. As part of their expansion agreement, neither team would be eligible to obtain the first overall pick in the 1996, 1997 or 1998 drafts.
As fate would have it, the Raptors would win the 1996 lottery. The league gave Toronto the second pick and re-drew for the official number one. Thankfully, the Grizzlies number wasn’t drawn but instead the Philadelphia 76ers, who secured the first overall pick with 33.73% odds. They would, of course, use that pick on star guard Allen Iverson.
The Grizzlies would get their moment in the sun though too as winners of the 1998 draft lottery. They would have to settle for the second overall pick, Mike Bibby, while the new number one, Los Angeles Clippers eventually took Michael Olowokandi.
Win by losing, right Donald?
Over the last two seasons, the draft lottery has went chalk with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Philadelphia 76ers securing the top spot with the highest odds. If the Brooklyn Nets (or, well, really the Boston Celtics) join them today, it will be only the fifth time in the modern lottery system that the team with the best odds won.
Related Story: NBA Draft Lottery 2017: Who each team should take with the No. 1 pick
The Phoenix Suns could be in a good spot as four times the team with the second highest odds have won: 1992 Orlando Magic, 1994 Milwaukee Bucks, 2009 Los Angeles Clippers.
Regardless of who ends up where, one thing is for sure: we’ll be watching. Clutching a trinket donning the logo of our favorite team hoping and praying those ping-pong balls go our way.
To some it may not make sense but to NBA fans, there’s nothing quite like the NBA Draft Lottery.
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