NBA Draft Lottery 2017: Odds and scenarios

A lot can change at the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery. Here is everything riding on this year’s ping-pong balls.

For a handful of teams every year, lottery night is the biggest night of their year; their one chance to land a superstar player at the top of the draft and have full control over him for years to come. Lottery luck has played a huge part in NBA history, from the New York Knicks winning the first-ever lottery in 1985 to bring Patrick Ewing to the Big Apple to Sam Hinkie and the Philadelphia 76ers revolving their entire franchise around it in recent seasons. The 76ers are still reaping the draft benefits of what Hinkie was able to accomplish during his time, even if he isn’t around to see it. This year is no different, as multiple teams duked it out at the bottom of the standings for extra combinations of ping-pong balls in the NBA’s ultra-secret lottery drawing.

As a reminder, only the top three picks are drawn in the lottery — after that, the rest of the teams fill in picks No. 4-14 based on last season’s record. That means that a team cannot fall more than three places from their current position; no more than three teams below them can vault into the top three.

The Brooklyn Nets have the most lottery balls, but if you don’t hear cheers from the Brooklyn contingent on your Twitter timeline, that’s because they’ve already handed the pick to the Boston Celtics in the infamous trade that sent Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett to Brooklyn in exchange for a treasure trove of draft picks. Boston has a 25 percent chance at the top overall pick and a 64.3 percent chance of remaining in the top three.

Phoenix has the second-most combinations, courtesy of their 24-58 record last season. The Suns have a 19.9 percent chance at the top pick and a 55.8 percent chance of staying in the top three.

The Los Angeles Lakers are the lottery’s most interesting story. The highest-profile franchise in the sport has a 15.6 percent chance at No. 1 and a 46.9 percent chance at staying in the top three, which is more vital for them than any other team. If the Lakers don’t remain in the top three, their pick automatically goes to Philadelphia. To add insult to injury, if the Lakers lose their pick to Philadelphia this year, then their 2019 pick is also forfeited to the Orlando Magic as a result of the Dwight Howard trade. If you’re a conspiracy theorist, there’s certainly an argument for the league to want their marquee team to accelerate back to the top of the league, and keeping the Lakers in the top three would do just that.

Philadelphia has the fourth-most ping-pong balls, with an 11.9 percent chance of the top choice and a 37.8 percent chance of jumping into the top three. Because of the aforementioned trade with the Lakers, there’s a chance that Philadelphia could end up with two picks in the top four. The Colangelos send their regards, Sam.

A couple of important notes, both involving Sacramento: If the Kings vault past Philadelphia, then the 76ers can swap with them, which increases Philadelphia’s chances of getting a top-three pick even further. If the Pelicans jump from tenth into the top three, they get to keep their pick; otherwise, it goes to Sacramento, regardless of what happens between Sacramento and Philadelphia.

Next: 10 Biggest NBA Draft Mistakes of All-Time

Tun in Tuesday night to find out what happens.