Raiders will pay Derek Carr in record-setting fashion

Sep 21, 2014; Foxborough, MA, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) scrambles away from New England Patriots outside linebacker Dont'a Hightower (54) during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 21, 2014; Foxborough, MA, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) scrambles away from New England Patriots outside linebacker Dont'a Hightower (54) during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Oakland Raiders have no choice but to pay Derek Carr, regardless of his demands. Without him, they have a below-average team.

Let’s play a game. Take Derek Carr away from the Raiders, and replace him with an average NFL quarterback. Think someone in the realm of Ryan Tannehill or Sam Bradford.

What does Oakland become? Maybe 8-8, 7-9? It certainly isn’t a Super Bowl contender, let alone a challenger in its own division.

This is likely the same conversation that Carr’s agent, Tim Younger, will have with Raiders general manager Reggie McKenzie in the coming months.

For the first time since 2002, Oakland enjoyed a winning campaign last year, going 12-4 and reaching the playoffs. The Raiders were 12-3 with Carr under center before losing him on Christmas Eve to a broken leg. Without Carr in the regular-season finale, Oakland mustered six points in a loss to the Denver Broncos, costing them the AFC West title.

Carr is reportedly healthy now and wants a long-term deal. The interest is mutual, but the money involved might cause stagnation in the talks. With the 26-year-old set to become a free agent after this season, the Raiders have a set of options. They can either let Carr walk in free agency, sign him to an extension or apply the franchise tag in March.

The first option won’t happen. The second should, and the third is a failsafe. The Raiders have not had a franchise quarterback since Kenny Stabler was traded to the Houston Oilers in 1980. Carr represents a lengthy Super Bowl window. Without him, Oakland is left with a nice offensive cast and a deplorable defensive roster, save Khalil Mack.

Looking at the landscape, Carr should be looking at Andrew Luck money. Before last season, Luck was signed to a five-year deal worth $123 million, including a record-setting $87 million in guarantees.

Carr has all the leverage. The depth chart behind him is poor, with Connor Cook and EJ Manuel waiting in the wings. We’ve already seen what happens to the Raiders without him, evidenced by the aforementioned loss in Denver and the hideous performance put forth in their AFC Wild Card defeat to the Texans.

Additionally, Carr is the most popular player both in the locker room and the stands. If this negotiation turns ugly, the fans will happily blame owner Mark Davis, who is already ripping their team away in a few years for Las Vegas.

On the surface, Carr’s numbers don’t warrant a top-end deal. He has never thrown for 4,000 yards in a season, and only once topped 30 touchdowns in his three-year career. His career record is 22-25. For comparison’s sake, Luck threw for an average of 4,319 yards and 29 touchdowns over his first three seasons, while winning a trio of AFC South titles.

So why does Carr get paid on the same level? Increased production year after year, in addition to being the centerpiece on a championship contender. Toss in age, importance of position and rising salary cap, and the California native should be reeling in well over $100 million.

Ultimately, Carr will get his money. The Raiders will acquiesce and sign the biggest deal in franchise history, with their quarterback being the driving force behind a new marketing campaign in a foreign city.

Oakland will be history for the Raiders long before Carr is.