Friday afternoon, about an hour after CSKA Moscow and Olympiacos square off, the second of two Euroleague semifinal matches will take place in Istanbul. While Olympiacos and CSKA Moscow will be great basketball, featuring two of Europe’s best guards in Milos Teodosic and Vassilis Spanoulis, the matchup that occurs second will be the main event for NBA fans. The second game features Real Madrid and Fenerbahce. The hometown team against the regular season champions. The 2015 champs against the 2016 runner-ups.
Despite these teams playing on opposite ends of the continent, there’s a ton of history in this battle. Last year, Fenerbahce swept Real Madrid in the playoff round to make the Final Four, winning by double-digits in Games 2 and 3 to put Real away. That was vengeance for the 2015 Final Four Semifinal, which saw Real best Fener in Madrid on their way to a Euroleague title. Round 3 should bring a closer battle than what we’ve seen in the past, as both teams are heading into this final with a full head of steam. Real is riding a No. 1 seed, while Fenerbahce disposed of Panathinaikos in the playoffs with such ferocity that they might be considered the favorites.
Game time: 3:30 p.m. EST, May 19, 2017
Location: Sinan Erdem Dome — Istanbul, Turkey
How to watch: Euroleague TV Final Four Pass, YouTube streams of dubious origin and reliability
This showdown is of particular interest to NBA fans because it showcases Euroleague’s two best NBA prospects, and they’ll spend plenty of time guarding each other. On one side sits Luka Doncic, the Slovenian wunderkind who will be a top-3 pick in the 2018 NBA Draft. On the other, Kings draft-and-stash Bogdan Bogdanovic, who shrugged off an ankle injury to casually average 19.3 points, 7.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game against Panathinaikos. Both shooting guards will be putting on a show for their prospective NBA suitors, and are vital to their team’s fortunes in this game. Bogdanovic provides the majority of Fenerbahce’s on-ball offensive creation, and his ability to get to the rim against nearly anyone opens up space for Fenerbahce’s cutters and shooters. Doncic doesn’t have the same responsibility, but he’s a secondary creator for Real, and his court vision and transition play will be key if Real Madrid wants to push the pace. They’re both probably the best options to defend each other, so expect plenty of quality film on both to come from this game.
The real deciding factor in this game, though, will be how the frontcourt battle shakes out. Fenerbahce brings Europe’s best center to the table in Ekpe Udoh, as the former Bucks big man is a one-stop shop defensively, protecting the rim and defending the pick-and-roll better than almost anyone at this level. They can go big with him and former Wizard Jan Vesely, or they can go small with one of those two and Nikola Kalinic or Gigi Datome at the four, adding two-way versatility and floor spacing around the talented fives. They might be the best team in Euroleague at going small.
That’s going to strain Madrid, who relies heavily on a slow-footed offensive big in Gustavo Ayon, particularly early on in games. Ayon has struggled with Fenerbahce’s small lineups in the past, as he’s not a good pick-and-roll defender, and can get burned by Bogdanovic or Bobby Dixon coming off endless Udoh or Vesely high screens. Real Madrid might have to turn to Othello Hunter and Anthony Randolph earlier than expected because of this. Randolph and Hunter are much better matches for this type of battle ‚— they’re strong enough to battle Vesely, but mobile enough to switch on the perimeter — but the trade-off is that it may hurt their offense, as Hunter is limited and Anthony Randolph is, unfortunately, still Anthony Randolph.
Ultimately, this game seems like one that’ll come down to timely shot-making, and both of these teams are great at that. Fenerbahce’s Dixon and Bogdanovic are both excellent at grabbing a bucket when their team needs it, but neither holds a candle to Sergio Llull, Europe’s premier closer.
Llull is the biggest problem for Fenerbahce in this game. He’s long enough to create problems for most opposing point guards, and his shot-making and court vision demand a primary defensive assignment. That’s going to create problems, because Dixon is 5-foot-10, and Kostas Sloukas, Fenerbahce’s other point guard, has been inconsistent due to a back injury. Doncic’s play is crucial to this matchup equation — if he demands Bogdanovic’s attention, then Fenerbahce may have to slide James Nunnally to Llull, which then matches Dixon or Sloukas on a Jeff Taylor slashing to the basket or Jaycee Carroll running around screens. Neither seems like a very good outcome.
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I think Real Madrid takes this game. The frontcourt issues are real, but Madrid can play big against anyone thanks to Randolph’s versatility, and they have the best player in the matchup in Llull. They also have more reliable depth — multiple bigs, multiple crafty wings and one of Llull and Doncic leading the way at all times. They don’t have to worry about foul trouble as much as Fenerbahce, who is two untimely Vesely fouls from playing a rapidly aging Pero Antic. Real Madrid’s advantages on the margins should help them punch a ticket to the championship on Sunday.