The NBA Draft starts to get interesting with the Sixers at No. 3
By Jared Dubin
The Process in Philadelphia has gotten as much attention as any team-building plan in NBA history. Sam Hinkie’s decision to game the system and engage in asset-collection on a scale not previously attempted drew ire from many, admiration from a vocal few, and ultimately resulted in his firing, even while it accomplished many of its stated and unstated goals.
The process of The Process, though, has never been easy. There have, after all, been tons of losses (a league-high 253 in the last four years) and even more think-pieces about how the Sixers are an embarrassment to basketball.
But those losses and several shrewd trades put the Sixers in position to make six lottery picks, two additional first-round picks, and seven second-round picks over the last four drafts. They own another first-rounder (No. 3 overall) and four more second-rounders (No. 36, 39, 46, and 50) in next month’s draft, two first-rounders and three seconds in both 2018 and 2019, two firsts and four seconds in 2020, and an extra second-round pick in 2021 as well.
Read More: 2017 NBA Draft Big Board: Post-combine and lottery edition
Let’s talk about that No. 3 pick in this year’s draft. If things go as expected, with Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball coming off the board in some order with the first two picks in the draft, the Sixers would have a tough decision to make.
The way they’ve constructed their roster makes a combo forward or a big man an awkward fit with the current talent on hand. They already have Joel Embiid, Richuan Holmes, Jahlil Okafor, Dario Saric, Ben Simmons, and Robert Covington all needing minutes. Adding Jayson Tatum, Josh Jackson, Jonathan Isaac, or Lauri Markkanen to the mix would make an already crowded frontcourt even more crowded — at least until two or three of those guys got traded. The presence of Simmons also makes a primary ball-handler at least somewhat redundant — especially if the player isn’t a great shooter. Dennis Smith Jr. and De’Aaron Fox are terrific prospects, but pairing either of them with Simmons and taking the ball out of their hands for large portions of the game would neuter a bunch of their effectiveness and also expose some of their shortcomings.
The best-case scenario for Philly would probably be Ball falling out of the top-two. (Fultz ain’t making it past the Lakers if he for some reason doesn’t go No.1.) Sharing ball-handling duties with Simmons would minimize some of the concerns about him being able to create off the dribble, his open-court wizardry and infectious passing combined with the vision and willingness to dish of Simmons, Saric, and Embiid would instantly turn the Sixers into one of the most enjoyable offensive teams in the league, and his spot-up shooting skill would allow him to play off the ball for stretches of the game.
The best “fits” of players outside the semi-consensus top-two are probably Frank Ntilikina and Malik Monk, good shooters that can work with the ball in their hands but don’t necessarily need to be the primary ball-handler in order to make a positive impact. Ntilikina would also raise the team’s defensive ceiling by a significant factor, and Monk would give them the kind of elite shooting weapon they don’t currently have. (You can make the argument that Isaac and/or Jackson fit just as well in a frontcourt between Simmons and Embiid, which could push Saric to the bench where he could have more control of the offense. But again, there’s the crowd in the frontcourt. The Sixers are desperate for guards, and specifically for guards that can excel on and especially off the ball.)
The Hinkie Sixers would never consider taking either of those two players at No. 3, because neither seems close to being the third-best prospect in the draft. Hinkie would take the highest player left on the board and figure the rest out later. We don’t know if the same is true of the Colangelo Sixers, because the only lottery pick that front office has made so far was the No. 1 pick last year. What Philly decides to do with the No. 3 selection will tell us a lot not only about how the rest of the draft will go (the draft really starts at No. 3 this year), but how this front office will operate as well.
It’s fitting that there’s no easy choice for the Sixers to make, because that was true throughout the Hinkie era as well.
Right from the jump, Hinkie made the hard choice to blow up a team that looked like it was going to top out as a first-round out in the playoffs, when he traded Jrue Holiday to New Orleans for the No. 6 pick and the then-Hornets’ first-round pick the following year as well. There was no easy choice to make at No. 6. Nerlens Noel unexpected dropped out of the top-five, but it was pretty widely known that he’d have to sit out most or all of the following season.
That Hinkie was willing to take the player he felt was the best prospect on the board despite a massive injury issue was a hint at how he’d operate in the future and the first in a series of moves that would lead other teams to staunchly oppose his methods. Five picks later, the Sixers took Michael Carter-Williams, who wasn’t necessarily an “obvious” choice at that spot, either. Philly needed a point guard after trading Holiday away, but Shane Larkin and Dennis Schroder were considered similarly-valuable prospects at the time, and reasonable arguments could have been made for both players at that spot.
The next year, the choices for the Sixers got even tougher. Having already drafted Noel, the Sixers again saw the draft’s arguable top prospect drop so that he was available with their first selection. Again, that player dropped due to significant injury concerns and was expected to miss most or all of the following season. Again, he was a power forward/center. Hinkie pulled the trigger on Joel Embiid anyway, because he was the best asset and that’s how he operated. (This turned out to be pretty damn smart.)
When they came on the clock seven picks later, the Sixers traded down two spots and received a future first and a future second. At No. 12, there was again no obvious selection. The Sixers’ needs at the time could reasonably be described as “everything,” so they took a do-everything player in Dario Saric… who they knew wouldn’t be coming over to America for at least a year or more. (This turned out just fine as well.)
Philly landed the No. 3 pick in 2015 as well, and after the Lakers somewhat unexpectedly took D’Angelo Russell at No. 2, the Sixers were left staring at yet another situation where the (perceived) best asset left on the board was not necessarily the best fit for their team and was probably not the player they planned on drafting. Hinkie bit the bullet and drafted Jahlil Okafor anyway, betting that he could sort out the Noel-Embiid-Okafor frontcourt mix at a later date, and that whatever he could get for whichever of the three he dealt away would be better than just taking someone that wasn’t the “best available player.” Reasonable arguments could have been made for Kristaps Porzingis, Mario Hezonja, or Emmanuel Mudiay at the time, and all likely would have been better “fits” for the team. Again, it was a tough choice, and Hinkie went with the board.
Next: Drafting Lonzo Ball to play with D'Angelo Russell will be a smart move by Lakers
He didn’t last long enough to see the Sixers finally land the No. 1 pick as a result of all his wheeling and dealing and tanking, where Colangelo faced a somewhat easier choice than Hinkie had, but a choice nonetheless. Ben Simmons was widely considered the consensus top prospect for much of the season, but a vocal Brandon Ingram camp emerged during the draft process as well. Colangelo ultimately made the decision to go with Simmons, giving the Sixers both the best prospect and the one that fit a huge need as a primary ball-handler and playmaker. They didn’t know at the time that he, too, would miss the entirety of his rookie season, but it happened, and it brought the Sixers to where they are now — facing yet another tough choice with the third pick, for the third time in four years. What they decide to do will further shape the future of the franchise, sending ripple effects down not just the draft board, but the rest of the roster as well.