A total of 63 players have been put on the DL shelf in the month of May, so who should you replace them with on your fantasy baseball roster?
I hope the people from Guinness are watching because there’s going to be some kind of world record if this keeps up.
You go to the DL, I go to the DL, we all go to the DL. The fantasy baseball gods are determined to make life difficult this month. A total of 63 players have been placed on the shelf in May, and if you feel like calling it quits and crying to your Freddie Freeman shrine, hey that’s totally normal, but don’t get too down on your team just yet.
Since Aaron Loup‘s fastball of doom sent the top performing first baseman to the X-Ray room on Wednesday night, I’ve been scrambling for other options. It’s never easy replacing a first round draft pick, but the waiver wire fruits are actually ripe and plentiful right now.
Ahead is a list of injured players, followed by a potential waiver wire replacement. As a note, I’ve left players like Madison Bumgarner and Adam Eaton off the list, because let’s face it, if you haven’t already replaced them yet, you’ve got bigger issues to address.
Freddie Freeman: 10-Day DL (Wrist)
Replacement: Justin Bour (Miami Marlins)
You won’t come close to replacing the magic of Freddie Freeman on the waiver wire, so all you can do is ride the hot hand, and now that’s Justin Bour.
In the last eight days, Bour has hit 5 HR’s, good for a hard contact rate of 44.9%, the 15th highest among qualified starters. At age 28, Bour showed flashes of moderate power when he hit 23 HR’s during his 2015 season, but this sudden slugging surge has caught everyone by surprise.
When I looked into Bour’s batted ball profile, I quickly realized this isn’t just a case of good luck. He’s swinging at 3% fewer pitches outside of the zone than he was a season ago, and although his overall contact rate is down from 77.6% to 71.6%, Bour is simply swinging at more strikes, which in turn has lead to a career high HR/FB rate of 26.7%.
As fair warning, you will have to wear Bour’s high strikeouts if you’re going to invest. He’s struck out 13 times with men on base and has an awful .176 AVG on 3-2 counts. What Bour will give you, though, is the potential for a 25+ HR season and a remarkably high number of walks. He’s owned in just 15.8% of leagues, and you can likely pick him up for a $1 in any auction.
Jameson Taillon: 10-Day DL (Groin)
Replacement: Matt Andriese (Tampa Bay Rays)
The unfortunate news for Taillon continues, testing positive for testicular cancer on Thursday. He’s almost droppable at this point, but there’s no shortage of replacements on the wire.
Matt Andriese’s quiet emergence is no longer a well-kept secret. The Rays rotation holds a 3.75 ERA so far this season, and Andriese’s 14 hits and 4 ER’s in the month of May are a big reason why.
Andriese’s stuff isn’t anything spectacular – the velocity on his curveball is up nearly 2 MPH, but the reason behind his 8.34 K/9 is in large part thanks to the dramatic horizontal movement increase in his changeup (-2.56).
A week ago at Fenway Andriese baffled the Red Sox, striking out five and increasing his LOB% to 81.7%. He’s not the kind of pitcher that will go the distance in terms of innings, but Andriese has allowed only four hits and 0 ER’s in the second inning this season and is also allowing a lot less contact on pitches thrown outside of the zone.
Andriese is readily available and should be viewed as more than just a short-term replacement type guy. He’s proven his worth at home and on the road this year, allowing only 16 ER’s all season.
Brad Miller: 10-Day DL (Abdomen)
Replacement: Chris Taylor (Los Angeles Dodgers)
If you’re among the 56% of people who actually owned Brad Miller, chances are you only held onto him for his multi-position eligibility. Miller’s overall hitting numbers haven’t been too special, so Miller was likely just your fill-in guy used on the random off day here and there.
I was trying to find someone with the same kind of return in this situation, but Chris Taylor’s upside is an upgrade you could’ve made way before Miller got hurt. He’s done nothing but jump on base this year, and his .324 AVG shows just how disciplined he’s become at the plate. Really, that’s not even the best part, though, because Taylor also has OF eligibility to go along with 3B, and at age 26, that makes it a win-win.
One of the other parts I love about Taylor is his 40/40 raw power and his average exit velocity of 92.50mph. He’s got some serious HR potential, and since he leads the team in walks this month (13), there’s really no need for the Dodgers to consider sending him back down to the minors.
Trevor Cahill: 10-Day DL (Shoulder)
Replacement: Eddie Butler (Chicago Cubs)
So turns out Trevor Cahill had a shoulder injury all along, huh? That’s probably why he was so crappy against the White Sox last week. Anyway, whatever the reason, he’s not likely to be on the DL for long, so his injury opens up a nice streaming spot on your roster while you sit and wait.
Cahill was meant to start against the Brewers last Thursday, and it was a matchup I liked a lot. If you’re looking for a replacement, though, look no further than Eddie Butler.
The Cubs righty was downright nasty during his first start of the season last week, throwing six innings of two-hit ball against the Cardinals. It’s a small sample size, but his four-seam fastball and changeup created a whiff rate of 47% combined, which in turn resulted in 5 K’s against a Cardinals team that ranks 7th in AVG during the month of May.
Butler was roughed up against the Brewers on Friday, lasting only three innings and giving up 2 ER’s. The weather did play a part, though, and it’s tough to judge him on one half-bad start.
Overall, most of this was pretty unexpected entering 2017, especially since Butler’s 2016 season ended with 9 ER’s in the final two months during his time in the bullpen. You’re only as good as your last game, though, and right now, Butler is a suitable short-term replacement for any injured starting pitcher.
Hunter Pence: 10-Day DL (Hamstring)
Replacement: Hernan Perez (Milwaukee Brewers)
Here we go again. I thought last season was the end of Pence’s hamstring problems, but it’s not even June and here we are.
Chances are you’re probably not even missing Pence all that much. He’s had a lousy start to the season, posting a .243/.289/.338 slash line so far, and is edging on a career-high 20.8% K-rate with only 3 HRs to his name.
If you weren’t one of the 16.3% of people who dropped Pence, Hernan Perez is now your guy. He’s been amazing since Ryan Braun hit the DL a few weeks ago, and the good thing about Perez is he gives you 3B and OF eligibility to play with.
Stats wise, the last fortnight has been great. Perez has five extra-base hits and a .529 SLG on the season. His ground ball rate of 49% is a concern, but Perez is one of the most aggressive young hitters around. He’s swung at 55% of the fastballs he’s seen, but he’s still managed to put up a low 15.5% K-rate at the same time.
Perez has a seven game hit streak going as of Thursday and is owned in only 33% of leagues. Even when Braun returns, the Brewers should still find a way to keep him around if these numbers continue.
Kenta Maeda: 10-Day DL (Hamstring)
Replacement: Ricky Nolasco (Los Angeles Angels)
If you cut ties with Kenta Maeda before his hamstring issue, good for you, but for those that stuck with the sinking ship, this is what you get for being optimistic.
Maeda is likely to pitch four innings at High-A Rancho Cucamonga sometime in the next few days, so he won’t miss too much time, but the addition of Ricky Nolasco to your rotation is definitely something you’ll want to consider.
Through eight games Nolasco has the third highest LOB % in the majors (90.7%) and he’s mowing down hitters for a 21.5% K-rate following Friday’s six innings against the Mets. At age 34 this kind of production is rare, so hold on for dear life until reality sets back in. Nolasco is definitely a hot hand you’ll want to ride with, even just as a streaming option, with so many players on the DL.
Gregory Polanco: 10-Day DL (Hamstring)
Replacement: Matt Holliday (New York Yankees)
Polanco + 2017 was meant to be fireworks, instead, it’s just a hole in the ground full of disappointment and my bold predictions for a breakout season.
If you’re willing to move on and fill that void in your lineup, great, congratulations on reaching step two of the program. Step three is finding a replacement, and with Polanco’s hamstring likely (definite) to be a problem further down the track, 34-year old Matt Holliday provides you with a sturdy insurance plan.
I was originally recommending Holliday as a fantastic add in your DH/UTIL spot, but now he’s evolved into so much more. He’s hit 2 HR’s in the last week and is also batting for a .355 AVG with men in scoring position this season.
One other thing to really get behind with Holliday this year is the fact that he’s hitting lefties nearly equally as well as he’s mashing righties. As of Friday, 10 of his 25 RBI’s have come against southpaws, and although Holliday’s 38 strikeouts will leave a mark on your scoreboard, he’s a valuable fantasy asset that continues to produce solid weekly numbers in a loaded Yankees lineup.
Hisashi Iwakuma: 10-Day DL (Shoulder)
Replacement: Nate Karns (Kansas City Royals)
Let’s be real for a second, you could’ve picked up any old scrub to replace Iwakuma and have probably wound up better off. Still, he’s been on the DL since May 18, and with rehab looking like a slow process, what better time to pick up Nate Karns.
Yep, Karns is available, but be mighty quick, because he ranks 8th on ESPN’s Most Added list as of Friday. Why I hear you ask? It’s simple. Karns has allowed only 5 ER’s and struck out 29 hitters in his last three starts, making him one of the most underrated pitchers so far this season.
Karns’ 4.46 ERA is still above the league average, but it’s dropping dramatically. He left Friday’s game against the Twins due to forearm stiffness, so there is minor concern towards his longevity now, but he has easily been the brightest spark out of a pretty awful Royals’ rotation.
That last point I made on the Royals rotation is perhaps the reason most fantasy owners have been hesitant to add him so far this season. Normally when a player throws over 10 K’s in back to back games he leaps off the waiver wire, but Karns’ high ERA and Kansas City’s untrustworthy rotation has kept a lot of owners at bay.
What you don’t know, now you know, though. Forget replacing Iwakuma, add Karns now, especially if you’re in desperate need for K’s.
A.J. Pollock: 10-Day DL (Groin)
Replacement: Tommy Pham (St. Louis Cardinals)
There’s good news and bad news on the Pollock front. His groin injury is reportedly a Grade 1 strain, but he’s probably going to miss more than 10 days of action. Not to mind, Tommy Pham has come out of nowhere since his call-up to the big leagues, and although it’s foolish to expect this .326 AVG thing to continue, juice the orange for as long as you can.
The likelihood of Pham staying in the big leagues when Stephen Piscotty returns is 50/50, but he’s certainly making a case for himself over fellow OF Randal Grichuck. There’s a nasty 29.4% K-rate to keep in mind here, but Pham’s ability to hit in eight of his 11 games this month is a really big plus.
Another part of Pham’s game to really love is his hard contact rate. In 2016 he finished with a 42.7% hard contact rate in 78 games, and so far in 2017, he’s kept that pace up posting a 44.8% rate this season.
Replacing Pollock’s 2 HR’s and 11 RBI’s isn’t hard, but replacing his 11 SB’s is. Pham won’t give you any of that, but he will, however, give you some consistency at the plate and put the ball in play more often than not.
Aroldis Chapman: 10-Day DL (Shoulder)
Replacement: Corey Knebel (Milwaukee Brewers)
Shoulder injuries and a 29-year old pitcher sure sound scary. Good thing Milwaukee Brewers manager Craig Counsell shifted Neftali Feliz out of the closer role a week ago and finally gave us our Corey Knebel fix.
If you’ve missed it, Knebel has flat out dazzled on the mound this past week. He hasn’t allowed a run in 10.3 innings of work, his fastball is creating a career high 21.80% whiff rate, and he’s been lights out on 3-2 counts allowing only three hits all season.
Yep, Knebel is a must-add in any league format, and although Chapman’s injury may sound more serious than it looks, Knebel’s 91.7% LOB% and 1.36 FIP can’t be ignored. There may be a bump further down the track when the Brewers stop hitting so many goddamn HR’s, but right now, celebrate the good times a 25-year old pitcher can give you.
Jeurys Familia: 60-Day DL (Shoulder)
Replacement: Ariel Miranda (Seattle Mariners)
I get it, you want none of what the Mariners’ pitching staff has to offer, right?. Hear me out, though, because Miranda’s SP and RP eligibility make him an intriguing add if you’re struggling for pitching.
Miranda’s last two starts look like this: 17 K’s, 2 ER, 7 hits and only 1 HR over 13 innings. He’s walked only nine hitters in the month of May and has successfully lowered his flyball rate by 5%, and increased his ground ball rate to an impressive 39.7%.
Adding Miranda makes sense right now, especially if he continues this kind of high strikeout stuff. He’s young enough, and his rising 9.7% swinging strike rate makes him a potential deal maker you can swing in trades further into the season.
There have been a lot of injuries in the first two months of the season. The more injuries occur, the deeper you have to go on the waiver wire for a replacement. Hopefully, you can add a solid replacement if you have one of these players on the DL.