MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Nova, Velasquez will carry this under

Ivan Nova has been as close as it gets to automatic when dealing from PNC Park. Another typical outing from the right-hander in Pittsburgh could help cash today’s under.

Congrats are in order before we get to today’s baseball over/under action, so congrats to Chris Sale for not only coming through for last night’s under win, but also for tying history (for the second time in his career) in notching his eighth-straight game with at least 10 strikeouts. Meanwhile, let’s try to keep our own streak going in the win column as we continue through the weekend.

Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 29-21-4 (58 percent), +595

Yesterday’s Result: Sale vs. Graveman Under 7 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 100 dollars/units

Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Vince Velasquez vs. Ivan Nova

UNDER 8.5 (-120) (via OddsShark)

It’s a little surprising to see this over/under listed as high as it’s been throughout the duration of the day since the line first came out, but it’s a number that can be taken advantage of, given the starting pitchers that will be on the hill in Pittsburgh this afternoon.

First, there is Ivan Nova, who continues to thrive in his tenure with the Pirates after being acquired for virtually nothing from the Yankees last year around the trade deadline. In fact, Nova was even just named the National League Pitcher of the Month for April.

While he hasn’t been quite as stingy in May as he was in the season’s first month, the 30-year-old right-hander has still produced mostly quality work while continuing to serve as a workhorse. In all eight of his starts, Nova has logged at least six innings, which is a trait you’d love to have from any pitcher in an under bet.

Detractors might point out that Nova’s 4.42 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in May thus far could be leading him back down to earth, but in the eight-year veteran’s defense, all three of his outings this month have come on the road.

The key here is that Nova will finally be back home for the first time since his strong April 23 showing when he welcomed his former teammates into town, and the splits are significant enough to indicate he could be getting back on track in this assignment. After all, Nova is 2-1 in three starts at PNC Park this year with a 1.89 ERA and 1.00 WHIP — walking only one batter in his 19 total innings — and when he arrived in Pittsburgh a season ago, he proceeded to go 3-1 in six home starts with a 2.45 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, issuing only two walks in 40 1/3 frames.

As a result, Nova should more likely than not be able to provide some of his steady brand of pitching, and hopefully his counterpart, Vince Velasquez, is able to accomplish the same based on what he’s been doing as of late.

Velasquez disappointed in the first couple of weeks of the new campaign, but has improved since then, allowing three runs or fewer in all but one of his last five outings. He’s also managed to last at least five innings in every single one of those, and that’s something that can continue as Velasquez has been aiming to become more efficient, even if that means racking up less strikeouts.

The continued upwards trend of the former Houston Astro will be needed here, and it could be the difference if he showcases one of his more dominant efforts here, which he is fully capable of every time he toes the rubber. All in all, there figures to be a solid pitching matchup in Pittsburgh today.

*Always check back to see if additional action has been added.