DraftKings Early MLB Picks For May 21

Ten of the 16 are in the early DraftKings tournament on our Sunday, but I still see the pitching as thin. Should we pay up or should we pay for offense and take a couple of risks on the pitching side? Let’s check out some stats to help with our decision.

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The early lineups were all canceled because the two early day rainouts locked before the stated game times. This was too bad, because I had one lineup that would have done well. So it goes sometimes.

These picks are based mostly on statistical analysis . If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.

For you first time players, if you would like $10 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $10 into more!

Next: DraftKings Early Lineup 1

P: Danny Salazar ($9,300): I know I will hear a lot of the “why not Stephen Strasburg over Salazar” bits, but Strasburg’s struggles with Atlanta are well documented. Even without Freddie Freeman‘s stats, the Braves are still hitting .257 with three homers and 11 runs in 113 at bats. I much prefer Houston’s .258 average against Salazar with his 14 strikeouts in 62 at bats. Besides, Mike Clevinger dominated the Astros last night. Salazar should be able to have a pretty good game here.

P: Kyle Freeland ($7,500): Okay, there is really nothing here to support this besides Freeland’s 3.13 ERA on the season and the fact that a lot of the Reds’ power is from the left side. However, Freeland’s road ERA is even better (2.42 in four starts). That WHIP is a little high, which can be dangerous at a hitter’s park, but I don’t like many arms on the early slate. And of course, the win potential is high against Bronson Arroyo.

C: Salvador Perez ($3,600): I will confess that even though the Royals offense leaves much to be desired, I am still stacking them against Phil Hughes and his 5.23 ERA. Perez is 7-22(.318) with a walk, four doubles, four runs scored, and two RBI against Hughes. In an afternoon when most regular catchers are off, I expect Perez in the first game of a twin bill so he can be rested for the week.

1B: Mark Reynolds ($4,800): Reynolds is only 5-17(.294) against Arroyo, but he has three walks, a double, two homers, three runs scored, and four RBI against him. Given the fact that Arroyo is carrying around a bloated 6.32 ERA, the Rockies are my favorite stack of the early slate. I’m even using their pitcher!

2B: Jonathan Villar ($3,900): Villar is only 2-9 against Jake Arrieta, but he has three walks, two runs scored, and a whopping five steals. Regardless of who catches for the Cubs today, I still think Villar can run on them.

3B: Mike Moustakas ($3,800): Moose is only 7-29(.241) against Hughes, but he has a walk, three doubles, a homer, three runs scored, and two RBI against him. That works for me with Hughes’s struggles so far this year.

SS: Alcides Escobar ($2,900): Escobar is 7-24(.292) with a walk, a double, a homer, three runs scored, three RBI, and two steals against Phil Hughes. I like him more if he is at the top of the order, but despite that, the price is right no matter where Alcides ends up hitting.

OF: Charlie Blackmon ($5,500): Blackmon has only faced Bronson Arroyo five times, but it’s safe to say he has the better end of the deal. Arroyo has only retired him once! Blackmon has a walk, a homer, two runs scored, a steal, and a RBI against Arroyo. Expect another productive day batting leadoff for Blackmon!

OF: Carlos Gonzalez ($4,200): CarGo is 9-17(.529) with two walks, two doubles, four runs scored, and a stolen base against Arroyo in his career. It is only a matter of time before he hits a homer and/or drives in a run.

OF: Jayson Werth ($4,400): Look out in the left field bleachers of SunTrust Park today! Werth is only 7-24(292) against Jaime Garcia, but he has three walks, a double, two homers, five runs scored, and six RBI off of him. It looks like SunTrust Park is going to be a hitter’s haven, so fire up Werth!

Next: DraftKings Early Lineup 2

P: Jake Arrieta ($9,400): There is always some risk involved with facing the Brewers, especially with righty killer Eric Thames there, I still like Arrieta today. His metrics are still in line with his career marks even though his ERA is not. The Brewers are also hitting just .180 off of him with Ryan Braun out. In 50 at bats, they have struck out 15 times and scored only three times. I will take my chances with those numbers.

P: Wade Miley ($7,200): There is always a risk running anyone out against the Blue Jays, let alone an average lefty with a nice 3.02 ERA, but a dangerous 1.51 WHIP. For starters, the Orioles have hit Marcus Estrada hard when they can actually find the ball. They have blasted 13 homers and driven in 30 in 200 at bats despite a .195 batting average. Miley on the other hand has only allowed nine runs in 117 at bats with just two homers despite the .265 batting average against. He also has a whopping 35 strikeouts! I’m saving the money and going Miley!

C: Brian McCann ($4,000): If someone does manage to get to Danny Salazar, it’s a pretty safe bet that it will be McCann. He is 3-9 with two walks, three runs scored, and two solo homers against Salazar. Since he ceded the start to Evan Gattis yesterday, it’s a good bet McCann will be in there today.

1B: Josh Bell ($4,000): Bell has never faced Aaron Nola, and Nola’s numbers are pretty good, but Bell has been raking the last week. He has four homers in the last nine games, and was not held scoreless in one of those games until yesterday. He is way underpriced if he can keep this up.

2B: Starlin Castro ($4,300): Castro is 7-15(.467) with a double, a homer, two runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Chris Archer. He is not cheap by any means, but Castro is near the top of a potent lineup. That’s good enough for me!

3B: Evan Longoria ($3,600): When CC Sabathia toes the rubber against the Rays, its Longoria time! Longoria is 30-73(.411) with a staggering 14 walks, nine doubles, seven homers, 15 runs scored, and 16 RBI in his career against Sabathia. He has even swiped a bag! Longoria is a must-play on the afternoon slate. You wont find many BvP better than this one!

SS: Francisco Lindor ($4,500): The Indians have never faced Joe Musgrove, but his 4.57 ERA doesn’t strike fear into anyone. Lindor is hitting near the top of a potent lineup capable of raising that ERA. I want a piece of this!

OF: Mike Trout ($5,500): Albert Pujols has better stats against Tommy Milone that Trout does, but with Pujols likely still out, it falls on Trout to pick up the slack. He is capable of it. Trout is only 5-24(.208) against Milone, but he has three walks, three doubles, a homer, two runs scored, and three RBI off of him. Something tells me Milone gets a rocky welcome back to the A.L. West.

OF: Jacoby Ellsbury ($4,000): So why am In not recommending Chris Archer against CC? Well, the Yankees are hitting .286 lifetime against him. Ellsbury is 19-37(.514) with four walks, a double, two homers, seven runs scored, three steals, and five RBI against Archer. I like the offense in this game far more than the pitchers.

OF: Kevin Kiermaier ($3,500): Kiermaier has two solo homers and two singles in eight at bats against CC Sabathia. If they hold him out because of the perceived platoon disadvantage, it is easy enough to slip Steven Souza in there instead. Souza is 6-14(.429) with two walks, a solo homer, and two runs scored against Sabathia.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA and EPL picks!