The Dallas Cowboys had a dream season in 2016, only to be woken up a few weeks to early. Should we expect a repeat performance or regression from America’s Team?
Every season has a darling, a Cinderella that finds out the slipper fits. Last year, it was the Cowboys, a team usually playing the role of hyped favorite, who ended up shocking ample pundits across the country.
Dallas rode the wave of good health and a great draft to a 13-3 record and the top seed in the NFC playoffs. After seeing Tony Romo go down in the preseason with a broken back, fourth-round rookie Dak Prescott stepped to the fore and was a revelation, throwing for 3,667 yards and 23 touchdowns against four interceptions.
Behind Prescott stood Ezekiel Elliott, a 225-pound wunderkind who rushed for a league-high 1,631 yards and 15 scores. The rookie duo was the driving force behind a team that only lost a pair of meaningful games in 2016, both to the New York Giants.
However, midnight came three wins early for Dallas. In the NFC Divisional against the Green Bay Packers, Prescott threw for 302 yards. Elliott ran for 125 yards. Yet the Cowboys still lost, due to their defense permitting 413 yards including a last-second drive resulting in a game-winning field goal off the right foot of Mason Crosby.
With that, the season was kaput. But what does the future hold for a Dallas team long on expectations and short on defensive talent?
Regression typically hits teams that see large win increases from one season to the next. Between 2007-16, there have been 33 teams that missed the playoffs, and then improved by at least four wins to reach the postseason the following campaign:
Of the 29 teams (the Dolphins, Giants, Cowboys and Raiders from last season notwithstanding due to unknown data), only four improved upon their records the following year, while three finished with an identical win total. Furthermore, just 11 (37.9 percent) returned the playoffs.
If recent history tells us anything, it’s that the odds are against Dallas reaching the postseason, with even larger odds against the Cowboys matching their lofty win total of a year ago.
There are other factors working against them as well. Dallas plays in a tough division, with the Giants looming and both the Redskins and Eagles capable. Additionally, free agency took its toll. Dallas watched Morris Claiborne, J.J. Wilcox, Brandon Carr and Barry Church all depart from its secondary, with the only reinforcements coming via the draft.
While the Cowboys are banking on continued progress from Prescott and Elliott behind the league’s best offensive line, there is a legitimate question of how much better can they be?
The last time a running back led the NFL in rushing yards in consecutive seasons was 2007, when LaDainian Tomlinson turned the trick. Elliott has the advantage of the aforementioned line in front of him, but the challenge remains. Teams will increasingly stack the box, forcing Dallas to throw.
This leads us to Prescott. The Mississippi State product was brilliant in his ability to avoid turnovers while still managing to finish fourth in yards per attempt at 7.99. With a bevy of weapons at his disposal including Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley and Jason Witten, Prescott stands to see his numbers increase this year, albeit with a likely rise in interceptions as well.
The biggest difference for Dallas will likely be the defense, which stands to face serious regression. Rod Marinelli’s unit finished 14th in yards and fifth in points, and now attempts to replicate those numbers with this potential starting lineup (including nickel)…
DL: Tyrone Crawford, Taco Charlton, Cedric Thornton, Maliek Collins
LB: Sean Lee, Anthony Hitchens, Damien Wilson
CB: Nolan Carroll, Anthony Brown, Orlando Scandrick
S: Byron Jones, Jeff Heath
Of that group, only Lee has seen the Pro Bowl or an All-Pro team. Should opponents force a few more turnovers from Prescott, or should the running game slow down even in the slightest, the Cowboys have problems.
Don’t expect a full-scale reverse of the progress made in 2016. Dallas has young stars and a stable coaching staff, both hallmarks of teams that have upward trajectories.
Still, the Cowboys won’t be going 13-3 this year. Expect them to be in playoff contention, but don’t believe a return trip to the postseason is a lock.
History, and roster changes, tell us Dallas faces tough odds.
Power rankings
Top 10 toughest places to play (crowd + team)
1. CenturyLink Field, Seattle Seahawks
2. Heinz Field, Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Lambeau Field, Green Bay Packers
4. Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City Chiefs
5. Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver Broncos
6. Gillette Stadium, New England Patriots
7. Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans Saints
8. M&T Banks Stadium, Baltimore Ravens
9. FedEx Field, Washington Redskins
10. New Era Field, Buffalo Bills
Quotable
"“He had a concussion last year. He has concussions pretty much every — I mean, we don’t talk about it. He does have concussions,” Bundchen said on “CBS This Morning” on Wednesday. “I don’t really think it’s a healthy thing for a body to go through that kind of aggression all the time. That could not be healthy for you.”"
– Gisele Bundchen, Tom Brady’s wife, talking about her husband’s concussion history
The Patriots can’t be happy about this quote from the former supermodel. We have no clue whether the team was aware Brady had concussions. If it was, and didn’t report the situation and put him through protocol, that would be a major no-no.
Regardless, this is a bad look for Brady. Youth football takes it cue from its heroes, and Brady is at the top of the list. If he’s concealing injuries — and according to his wife, he is — it sends a horrible message to the future of the game.
Random stat
The largest margin of defeat in NFL history took place in the 1940 championship game. That year, the Bears took apart the Redskins, winning 73-0. In the Super Bowl era (1966-present), the biggest spread is 59 points. This happened twice, with the Rams beating the Falcons 59-0 in 1976, and the Patriots walloping the Titans by the same score in 2009.
In the playoffs, the biggest blowout in that timespan saw the Jaguars demolish the Dolphins, 62-7, in the 1999 AFC Divisionals.
Info learned this week
1. Raiders, Derek Carr having contract issues?
NFL insider Michael Silver stirred Raider Nation last week, reporting that Derek Carr and Oakland’s brass hadn’t been talking about a contract extension in weeks. The 26-year-old is entering the last season of his four-year rookie deal, and is set to cash in.
While I wrote about this situation in great detail on Wednesday, here’s a quick roundup. Carr is going to be paid by the Raiders. Whether it’s this offseason or a year from now with the help of the franchise tag, he’s seeing top-dollar. General manager Reggie McKenzie made that clear, speaking on 95.7 FM in the Bay Area.
Carr should be gunning for a record-breaking deal. Andrew Luck currently has the largest guaranteed chunk at $87 million over five years. Considering his importance to the Raiders, and inflation, Carr should aim for at least that. Whether he gets there remains to be seen, but he’ll be paid handsomely, and he will be in Silver and Black.
2. Alex Smith being consummate pro … again
There are plenty of knocks on Alex Smith. He throws short, he doesn’t make the big play, he’s never won the big game, etc. One thing nobody can say? He’s not a tremendous professional. The Kansas City Chiefs moved up 17 spots in the NFL Draft to take his successor, Patrick Mahomes II, causing a potential locker room problem. Smith, who spoke to local media on Thursday, says that won’t be the case, adding his willingness to help Mahomes.
Smith is certainly the starter for this season, but it’s murky after that. The Chiefs are against the cap in 2018 and could save $17 million by dumping the 33-year-old’s contract. Mahomes will have at least a year to learn under Smith, one of the more cerebral quarterbacks in the game.
He’s also one of the classiest, something that will save Kansas City a huge headache as it aims for its first Super Bowl since 1969.
3. Rams, Chargers stuck in current stadiums
On Thursday, news broke that both the Rams and Chargers might be overstaying their current welcomes. The city of Inglewood was supposed to have a fully-functional stadium ready for the 2019 NFL season for both the Rams and Chargers to use. Instead, both will be inhabiting their current stadiums for an extra campaign.
Due to an unusual amount of rain, the stadium development has fallen behind schedule. The Rams will continue playing at the L.A. Memorial Coliseum, while the Chargers are stuck in then StubHub Center, which has a seating capacity of 27,000. It’s not ideal, but it’s the reality for both of Los Angeles’ clubs.
4. John Brown poised for bounce-back season?
The Cardinals were one of the most disappointing teams last year, going from NFC Championship Game appearance to 7-8-1. One of the myriad reasons was John Brown, who saw his production dip from 1,003 yards and seven touchdowns in 2015 to 517 yards and two scores last year. However, head coach Bruce Arians believes Brown is ready to rebound, per USA Today.
After multiple losses in free agency, the Cardinals are already hard-pressed to reach the postseason. Brown could be a huge boost, though, giving Carson Palmer a legitimate second weapon opposite Larry Fitzgerald.
Arizona is certainly the second-best team in the NFC West, easily clear of the Rams and 49ers. The main questions are whether it can compete with Seattle, and if it has enough to beat out teams such as the Vikings, Redskins, Eagles, Lions, Buccaneers and Panthers for wild card spots.
Which version of Brown the Cardinals get could go a long way in giving the answer.
5. Steelers move on from Ladarius Green
Only one year after inking Green to a four-year deal worth $20 million, the Steelers have decided to cut bait. Green was limited to six games last year due to a slew of injuries, including concussion-related issues. The 26-year-old has not announced whether he plans to continue playing or retire.
The decision to release Green costs Pittsburgh a touch over $7 million in dead money over the next three seasons. The Steelers now move forward with Jesse James, who elevated from a reserve role in 2016 to catch 39 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns.
History lesson
In 1958, the New York Giants hosted the Baltimore Colts at Yankee Stadium in the NFL Championship Game. Baltimore’s head coach, Weeb Ewbank, was in his fifth year with the club, hoping to win its first title.
The Colts did win, 23-17, in an overtime thriller that would become known as the Greatest Game Ever Played. It was the first overtime game in NFL history, and is largely credited for turning pro football into America’s game.
Ten years later, Ewbank again found himself on the sidelines of history. Now coaching the American Football League’s Jets, his 17-point underdogs hoped to knock off the 13-1 Colts in Super Bowl III. New York would do exactly that behind Joe Namath, winning 16-7.
Parting shot
The AFC landscape is beginning to change, although the obviousness of the situation remains cloaked by the shadow out of New England.
For years, it has been the Steelers as the main challenger, joined by whoever Peyton Manning was playing for. After that, the point was moot sans a few years of Baltimore power. Now, the conference is beginning to open up for new contenders as Tom Brady and the Patriots aim to hold on.
The Chiefs and Raiders are the two most-talked about contenders alongside Pittsburgh at the moment, but the Titans are coming. After a string of strong drafts and wise free-agent acquisitions, Tennessee is poised to threaten in the AFC South, if not win it. The Texans could be a force should Deshaun Watson be more boom than bust, while the Colts are finally headed in the right direction under general manager Chris Ballard.
Then there are the teams trending downward. Baltimore and Cincinnati still have enough to beat anybody on a given Sunday, but their days of true contention are legend. The Chargers and Broncos are both talented, but there are real questions up and down both rosters.
All told, the Patriots remain the kings of the conference, but new faces from strange places are readying themselves to emerge soon.