Fantasy Football Rankings: Early RB Rankings 2017

Jan 15, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell (26) runs the ball as Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters (22) defends during the second quarter in the AFC Divisional playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports Fantasy Football Rankings /

Fantasy Football Rankings: Early RB Rankings 2017

Running Backs are potentially the most important piece on your fantasy football team. A good RB core can be the difference between mediocrity and winning a championship. RB’s can be drafted early in a draft (David Johnson), slide down to later rounds (Melvin Gordon) or be picked up off of waivers (Jordan Howard). The entire picture is not yet clear as we are still months away from the NFL season, however we are not to far off to do Early RB Fantasy Football Rankings for the 2017 Fantasy Football season. Here are some early season rankings and the logic behind them.

My Theories

My personal draft strategy is a mix of Value Based Drafting and utilizing tiers. In prior years I relied heavily on projections. What happens when an analyst projects Toby Gerhart to run well for the Jaguars? Codarelle Patterson to be a stud? I now rely less on projections as the end all and be all of my strategy. I try to identify players who I believe will produce similarly and group them together. This can help you seek out certain players in a draft.

I have taken the last 5 years of rushing data and broken the Top 12 Running Backs into four groups. I did this to try to see what players typically put up in these positions. 2015 being a poor rushing year caused people to over draft WR last season. If people had studied data from previous seasons they would realize that was an outlier year. The data I came up with showed this:

1-3 Avg: 277.33

4-6 Avg: 236.66

7-9 Avg: 207

10-12 Avg: 191

These numbers should give you a rough idea as to what the Top 12 Running Backs will produce. You NEED to acquire good RB’s in your fantasy draft. The 7-9th RB will out produce all but the truly elite receivers. Looking at these averages can help you identify the kind of points you can expect from players in different rankings at different positions.

Jan 1, 2017; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson (31) runs the ball while being tackled by Los Angeles Rams cornerback Blake Countess (left) and linebacker Mark Barron (26) during the first quarter at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports /

Fantasy Football Rankings: Tier 1 Running Backs

1-David Johnson

2-Ezekiel Elliott

3- Le’Veon Bell

It is clearly ideal to get an elite RB. Johnson, Elliott, and Bell should stand atop the RB picture this season (barring injury). If you are able to draft ANY of these 3 running backs you are potentially getting the best player in all of fantasy football based on value. These players should go very early in your draft.

Fantasy Football Rankings: Tier 2 Running Backs

7- Jay Ajayi

10- Carlos Hyde

I believe all of these RB’s have the potential to produce between 200-240 points. Gordon and McCoy should produce big numbers. It was harder to rank Freeman, Howard, Ajayi, and Murray. Murray had a remarkable season last year. He would be ranked higher but he has Derrick Henry who could potentially take touches away from him. Freeman loses points to Tevin Coleman but played in a record breaking offense. Ajayi gets the edge over Howard due to Miami rushing more last season.

Jan 1, 2017; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley (30) in action against the Arizona Cardinals during the second quarter at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports /

Tier 3

11- Lamar Miller

12 – Todd Gurley

13- Leonard Fournette

14- Spencer Ware

15- Isaiah Crowell

This part of the rankings is where things start to get murky. Todd Gurley was phenomenal two years ago but plays on a horrible Rams team. Lamar Miller was supposed to thrive last year but the Texans had a horrible offense. Leonard Fournette is a highly touted rookie. Ware and Crowell have put up solid numbers but how much time will they share with other backs? I believe all of these RB’s will produce, it is hard to tell exactly what they will produce. I believe Gurley and Fournette have the highest ceilings.

Tier 4

16 – C.J. Anderson

17- Marshawn Lynch

18- Joe Mixon

19- Eddie Lacy

20- Tevin Coleman

This category houses players who have many question marks surrounding them. C.J. Anderson split time with Devontae Booker last season. Marshawn Lynch has been retired for a year and joins a new team.

More from Fantasy Football

Eddie Lacy had a HORRIBLE year while being locked in the Packers Aaron Rodgers centric offense. All of these players have a chance to lock down a number one back spot, save for Tevin Coleman who shares the backfield with Devonta Freeman. Coleman’s chance at positional dominance only comes with injury.

Conclusion

These are my early Top 20 RB Rankings. These will be expanded and improved upon closer to the season as more information roles in. My faith in these rankings diminishes as it goes out of Tier 2. It is easy to say David Johnson will have a good season, it is more difficult to figure out if Joe Mixon will do better than Marshawn Lynch. I will continue to analyze the positional averages and attempt to assemble a good draft strategy for this season. I look forward to sharing my rankings and fantasy insight with all of you this season.

Next: 2017 Dynasty RB Rankings

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR throughout the off-season as we head toward NFL Training Camp and the start of Fantasy Football Drafts everywhere!

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