Will the FA Cup final determine Arsene Wenger’s fate at Arsenal?

Arsenal face Chelsea in their third FA Cup final in four years on Saturday. How will the result affect Arsene Wenger’s future?

A win on Saturday would mark Arsenal’s third FA Cup trophy in four years, an impressive feat on its own, although after snapping a nine-year trophy drought in 2014, the satisfaction of winning the FA Cup yet again may be lessened. A third FA Cup trophy win would make for a nice streak, but it would also represent a classic example of diminishing marginal utility.

The Arsenal board is scheduled to convene next week to discuss the future direction of the club. More specifically, the managerial structure and Arsene Wenger’s role within that structure should be clarified during that meeting. The ownership stood by Wenger during a nine-year trophy drought, realizing that change comes at a steep cost.

Just ask Liverpool and Tottenham, who have each churned through several managers and outspent Arsenal during the past 15 years. Wenger’s imprint on the club runs deep enough that a sudden separation could result in a dangerous domino effect. Players recruited and groomed from a young age (Theo Walcott, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Laurent Koscielny, Aaron Ramsey) by Wenger may decide to bolt. Those players will need to be replaced by personnel befitting of a new system and the identity of a new manager. That costs money, and money is not what the Arsenal board is known to spend frivolously.

The fans have been clamoring for a change in direction, which of course sounds very tempting when you have a 67-year-old Frenchman in charge who has failed to bring a Premier League title or a European trophy in 13 years. However, change for change’s sake can backfire. All signs point to a gradual (and mutual) eventual separation, with Wenger still very much involved in both the daily tactical aspects as well as personnel decisions in the upcoming season.

During the last 15 years, Arsenal rank sixth in transfer spending among Premier League clubs (fifth in net spend). By that ranking, Arsenal have overperformed. However, after their most disappointing Premier League campaign in 20 years, Arsenal fans aren’t that interested in debating data and trends, even though data seems to indicate this season may be a regression to the mean, and that Arsenal are by no means underperforming given the investments made in the club. The fact they’ve been consistently involved in Champions League play, have won the FA Cup twice in recent years, and have done so playing an easy-on-the-eye, possession-based style is a testament to Wenger’s managerial ability.

The trouble for Wenger is that teams that have spent the past two decades staring up the rankings at Arsenal in the Premier League are moving up the totem pole. A tale of What have you done for me lately would not have a happy ending for Wenger. Both Tottenham and Liverpool are coming off better domestic seasons, and they feature some of the best young talent in the Premier League, which should enable them to challenge for trophies for years to come.

With a core of young players, with younger, more energetic and yes, charismatic coaches at the helm, there is a clear feeling both Tottenham and Liverpool are building something special. The same cannot be said of Arsenal, who are dealing with the potential exit of their most dangerous offensive threat. Simultaneously, it appears the pendulum has swung against the possession-oriented style of play favored by Wenger. These are fundamental issues that can’t be addressed overnight and shouldn’t be impacted by the result of a single game. Nothing about the way Stan Kroenke has been running the club suggests a complete change of course or (gasp!) a firing of the legendary Frenchman.

No doubt a win over Chelsea would tweak the plot in Wenger’s favor, giving him a little more leverage going into the offseason board meetings. The fans will be thrilled to win a trophy against their bitter (and richer) London rivals. Perhaps another FA Cup win would allow Wenger to buy more time at the helm as well as the privilege to choose both his successor and the terms of succession. Chelsea are the Premier League champion and by any objective measure the better team. Would a loss to Chelsea on Saturday expedite Wenger’s exit? Perhaps, though it’s unlikely.

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However, for a club that has shown a predilection for gradual, methodical adjustments in direction rather than abrupt firings, this result will most likely not be the catalyst that brings about seismic shifts. The season will still be seen as a disappointment given their missing out on Champions League soccer and the corresponding $60 million payout that comes with it, as well as the embarrassing way they exited that competition this year. Change is afoot, dictated by Wenger’s advanced age as much as the reality of seeing Arsenal lagging behind clubs with similar budgets. That change is a long time coming and will materialize regardless of the name of the team that ends up lifting the trophy on Saturday.