Which drivers from the 2016 Chase are in danger of missing the 2017 playoffs?

With the 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season nearly half over, we look at which drivers who ran for the 2016 championship most desperately need a win … and soon.

One thing we can say with absolute certainty is that the field for the first year of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs is going to look a little different than the final year for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Chase. The retirements of Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart, along with some early season surprise winners have seen to that.

What isn’t completely apparent yet is which drivers might be the ones left on the outside looking in. There are still 14 regular season races left, and as longtime fans know, things can change a lot during the summer.

Still, when looking at the current standings, we have the following drivers all but locked into the 2017 playoffs thanks to race wins:

• Martin Truex Jr. (2 wins)
• Brad Keselowski (2 wins)
• Jimmie Johnson (2 wins)
• Kyle Larson
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
• Kurt Busch
• Ryan Newman
• Austin Dillon

That’s exactly half of the playoff field. If the season ended today, the following eight drivers would be in on points:

• Kevin Harvick
• Kyle Busch
• Jamie McMurray
• Chase Elliott
• Clint Bowyer
• Joey Logano (remember, his win doesn’t count for playoff purposes thanks to a post-race penalty)
• Denny Hamlin
• Ryan Blaney

At the moment, anyone without a win is chasing Blaney in the points, and his closest competitor is 20 points back.

That leaves us with the following 2016 Chase entrants still needing something good to happen. We’ll throw Hamlin in the mix since he’s not exactly completely safe on points. We’ll rate their level of danger using a classic stoplight system.

Denny Hamlin

Playoff danger level: Green

Everyone who’s been watching the Cup Series this season knows all about the troubles Joe Gibbs Racing has had finding a way to Victory Lane. Hamlin has been no stranger to those struggles, as he has run fine (five top-10s) but hasn’t really threatened much for a win.

After Charlotte, Hamlin was 44 points clear of the danger zone. But more importantly, Blaney is between him and the drivers looking to move up into the playoffs, and that buffer makes Hamlin pretty safe unless he would have consecutive DNFs.

Matt Kenseth

Playoff danger level: Yellow

Much of what was said for Hamlin with regard to the JGR slump also applies to Kenseth. The difference is he’s actually back in a position where he wouldn’t make the playoffs if they started today. And even worse, one more first-time 2017 winner not already in the field (like, say, Dale Earnhardt Jr.) will mean he’s mired behind someone else in terms of points.

The good news is that Kenseth shined brightest last season during the late spring and summer, when he won at Dover and New Hampshire and had three other top-10 finishes. He’s actually off to a pretty similar start to 2017 as he was last year, but if he doesn’t make a move soon, the increased number of competitive cars could make the 20 team sweat a bit.

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Chris Buescher

Playoff danger level: Red

Driving for a new team this year, the feel good story of the 2016 Chase appears to have virtually no shot at securing a playoff spot. He’s 26th in points, 136 points behind Blaney.

However …

He’s actually doing better than he was last year through 12 races, recording five top-20 finishes in 12 races compared to just one at this point in 2016. Four of those have come in the last four races, so maybe he’s turning a corner of sorts.

Still, one has to figure he’ll need a win to get in. Maybe Pocono, where the Cup Series stops twice prior to the playoffs, will have some magic for Buescher again this year.