Dodgers will win World Series, Mike Trout hurt, Bryce Harper brawls, power rankings and more
The Dodgers will win the World Series, Mike Trout is injured, Hunter Strickland vs. Bryce Harper. Plus power rankings, advanced baseball stats and more.
Clayton Kershaw allowed four earned runs on 11 hits (including three home runs) and two walks Sunday against the Chicago Cubs. Kershaw lasted just 4.1 innings. The 11 hits were the most Kershaw has ever allowed at Dodger Stadium, and his four earned runs and three homers tied his April 8 start at Coors Field, his second game of the season, for the worst of 2017.
A poor outing against the defending World Series champions isn’t a big deal in the long run. After all, following his start against the Cubs, the three-time NL Cy Young Award winner and 2014 NL MVP is 7-2 with a 2.37 ERA, 0.947 WHIP and 78 strikeouts in 76 innings. What is important is the outcome of the game itself: the Dodgers won easily, 9-4, which capped a three-game weekend sweep of Chicago.
Last week in these pages, I labeled each above-.500 major league team either a contender or pretender. The Dodgers, unsurprisingly, are a contender. However, I failed to declare my sincere belief Los Angeles will win the World Series.
Though Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg and Chris Archer currently rank ahead of him in fWAR, Kershaw is still arguably the best pitcher in baseball. ESPN’s Buster Olney thinks Kershaw is the best pitcher ever (though I wouldn’t go that far yet). And, even though Kershaw’s biggest shortcoming to this point is a 4.55 career postseason ERA, I’d still happily hand him the ball three times in any October series. Plus, as evidenced by the sweep over the Cubs, the Dodgers are much more than Kershaw.
Closer Kenley Jansen has been practically unhittable this season. Jansen has a 1.42 ERA with 34 strikeouts and zero walks in 19 innings in 19 games this season. He has eight saves, a 0.13 FIP (!) and 0.684 WHIP. With his mid-90s cutter that misses bats and saws them off with regularity, I’d take Jansen over any other pitcher in the ninth inning in the postseason.
Led by Kershaw and Jansen, but supplemented by Alex Wood, Brandon McCarthy, Pedro Baez and Josh Fields, the Dodgers have the best team ERA (3.21) in baseball, and have allowed the fewest runs (179) in the majors. And, with an offense that ranks fourth in runs scored (261), LA has the best run differential (plus-82) in the big leagues by a wide margin.
The lineup is packed with talent, from 2016 Rookie of the Year and MVP candidate Corey Seager to current Rookie of the Year favorite Cody Bellinger (who leads the team with 11 home runs in 32 games), to leading hitter Justin Turner, who is expected to be back in the middle of June following a DL stint.
Not only is the team loaded now, but Los Angeles also has a deep and talented farm system and a seemingly unlimited bankroll – a pair of assets that will enable the club to acquire any available player necessary before the trade deadline. Archer? Ryan Braun? Any current member of the Kansas City Royals? You bet.
The Dodgers beat the Cardinals 5-1 Monday to increase their winning streak to five and pull within a half game of the Rockies for first place in the AL West. Though Colorado has led the division nearly the entire season so far, it’s only a matter of time before the Dodgers take control and coast to their fourth consecutive title.
Los Angeles will face a series of tough tests in the postseason, including potential matchups with the Cubs and Nationals from the National League, and possibly the Astros, Indians, Yankees or Red Sox in the Fall Classic. But with Kershaw, Jansen, Seager and whoever else the Dodgers put on the field in October, LA has what it takes to come out on top.
Expect the Dodgers to celebrate the first World Series title for the franchise since 1988.
Three things we learned this week
1. Mike Trout landed on the disabled list for the first time
The best player in baseball won’t be able to play baseball for six to eight weeks after suffering a UCL tear in his thumb on a head-first slide while stealing second base Sunday. Mike Trout, who leads the majors with a 3.6 fWAR – nearly a full run ahead of No. 2 Bryce Harper – landed on the DL for the first time in his career and will undergo surgery to repair the damage.
Trout won the AL MVP Award last season, his second MVP and fifth top-two finish in the MVP vote in his career (Note: Mike Trout is 25 years old and has played five full MLB seasons). He has also shown improvement this year somehow.
Before the injury, Trout hit .337/.461/.742 in 47 games, which marked his best start to a season to date. Trout led the majors with 16 home runs prior to the injury, leads all of baseball with a .461 on-base percentage, 215 wRC+ and 226 OPS+, and leads the American League in slugging (.742), OPS (1.203), walks (36), ISO (.405) and wOBA (.479). He had driven in 36 runs, scored 36, and stole 10 bases – the 10th doing exponentially more harm than good.
Trout’s injury is a blow to baseball as a whole, and the Angels in particular. However, if looking for a silver lining, it’s worth noting that teammate Andrelton Simmons suffered an injury similar to Trout’s last year and was able to return in just five weeks.
Here’s to a speedy recovery, and hopes that baseball’s best player will play baseball again soon.
2. Hunter Strickland did a dumb thing
The best way to get revenge for serving up a pair of monstrous home runs in the postseason in 2014, it seems, is to drill the player that hit them with a fastball in the backside three years later.
Giants reliever Hunter Strickland didn’t care for the way Bryce Harper gazed at his two moonshots during the 2014 National League Division Series, in which San Francisco beat the Nationals in four games before going on to win the World Series. So, in Strickland’s first opportunity since the bomb Harper hit into McCovey Cove in Game 4, he hit Harper with fastball. Apparently on purpose. Which is dumb.
Harper didn’t take kindly to Strickland’s gesture, and charged the mound (which is also dumb), and the two traded punches while the two teams – most of them, anyway, since Giants catcher Buster Posey didn’t do much of anything – met to trade pushes and insults. The players that landed the biggest blows in the fracas were Giants Jeff Samardzija and Michael Morse, who ran into one another.
"“Shouldn’t really get a 98-mph fastball in your hip for hitting home runs,” Nationals first baseman Ryan Zimmerman said after the game, according to Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. “I don’t get to fight the pitcher when he strikes me out twice.”"
A good point.
"“…It’s so in the past that it’s not even relevant anymore,” Harper said. “They won the World Series that year. I don’t even think he should be thinking about what happened in the first round. He should be thinking about wearing that ring home every single night…”"
Another good point.
Strickland and Harper are both likely to be suspended for their roles in the brawl, but as Nats catcher Matt Wieters pointed out, Harper charging the mound may have limited the total number of suspensions given baseball’s (dumb) unwritten rules concerning retaliation in such circumstances.
3. Dellin Betances belongs in the ninth inning
The Yankees have Aroldis Chapman, one of the most uniquely gifted pitchers in baseball history and one of the most dominant closers of his generation, as their closer. However, since Chapman has been on the DL since May 14 with an inflamed rotator cuff, setup man Dellin Betances has taken over the role.
In six appearances since taking over the ninth inning, Betances allowed three hits (all singles) without a walk, and surrendered just one unearned run to keep his ERA a spotless 0.00. Betances faced 20 hitters across 5.2 innings, and has struck out 10 of them. He is a perfect 5-for-5 in save opportunities since Chapman’s injury.
Overall, Betances has appeared in 19 games for the Yankees this season. He has a 0.52 ERA and 0.89 FIP, along with a 0.981 WHIP in 17.1 innings. The 29-year-old flame-throwing right-hander has 32 strikeouts and nine walks, and has allowed a single earned run, which occurred April 8 in his second appearance of the season.
Chapman reportedly began throwing over the weekend, and could return to the roster in June. However, the New York bullpen – and especially the ninth inning – is in good hands for now.
Quotable
"“This lineup is something special.”"
– Houston outfielder Josh Reddick, describing the Astros’ 11-run eighth inning outburst in a 16-8 come-from-bahind victory over the Twins, according to Rhett Bollinger and Brian McTaggert of MLB.com.
Ervin Santana allowed just two hits in a 2-0 win over the Orioles May 23, his second shutout this season. Perhaps the Twins should have allowed Santana to pitch a complete game No. 3 in his next start.
Santana allowed just two runs in seven innings Monday, and left with an 8-2 lead thanks to a seven-run bottom of the fifth by Minnesota. He had also thrown 114 pitches, a season high, so it’s understandable manager Paul Molitor handed the game to the bullpen. However, the Astros rallied with 11 runs in the top of the eighth and added three in the ninth to win 16-8.
According to Elias Sports Bureau, Sunday’s come-from-behind effort was the first win for Houston after 659 straight losses when trailing by six or more runs after seven innings. It was also the first time in MLB history a team won a game by eight runs or more after trailing by six runs or more.
Houston ranks third in the majors in runs scored per game (5.15). The Astros improved their record to 16-0 record when scoring more than seven runs in a game compared to a 20-16 record when they fail to reach seven runs.
Plays of the Week
Kyle Schwarber probably could have caught it, but that doesn’t really matter. Cubs shortstop Addison Russell ran 114 feet to catch a fly ball down the left field line Monday in San Diego.
Also worth noting, Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez threw out Trevor Plouffe trying to steal second base Saturday, and recorded a 1.82-second pop time (the amount of time between him catching the pitch and the second baseman catching the throw).
Sanchez threw a perfect strike to the base of the second base bag from his knees. His knees! Who does he think he is, Benito Santiago?
League Leaders
Usually our weekly look at advanced baseball statistics relies on the leaderboards at FanGraphs, which are incredibly useful and also fairly easy to comprehend. Baseball Prospectus also has a set of leaderboards, and BP sometimes takes a deeper dive into the minutiae of the game, which can (in my opinion) make some of their statistics more difficult to grasp.
However, BP’s Others Batted In leaderboard is rather self-explanatory. OBI shows the amount of RBI a player is responsible, other than when he drives himself in with a home run. In other words, it’s RBI minus home runs. OBI% is the percentage of runners on base a hitter drives in.
Others Batted In Percentage (OBI%), minimum 125 plate appearances
- Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies (29.2%)
- Nomar Mazara, Texas Rangers (24.3%)
- Mark Reynolds, Colorado Rockies (23.8%)
- Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox (22.3%)
- Aaron Altherr, Philadelphia Phillies (22.1%)
Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon has 46 RBI through Monday, which leads the major leagues. Blackmon is also Colorado’s leadoff hitter, having hit first in the lineup in each of his 52 games, meaning he has been guaranteed to hit without a base runner aboard in 52 of his 234 plate appearances (22.2 percent).
Blackmon has 13 home runs, which obviously helps his RBI tally. But given his clutch (a dirty word to most stat heads) hitting with runners on base, it’s no surprise he has the highest OBI% in the majors by a wide margin.
Another self-explanatory measure of success is strikeouts per nine innings. As hitters try to hit more home runs, and pitchers throw harder than ever before, strikeouts are on the rise across baseball. While strikeout percentage is arguably the best way to measure how well as pitcher strikes hitters out, strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) is also a useful metric.
Strikeouts Per Nine Innings (K/9), qualified starters
- Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians (12.55)
- Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox (12.45)
- Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (12.09)
- Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (11.72)
- Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks (11.10)
Strikeouts Per Nine Innings (K/9), minimum 10 innings
- Tommy Kahnle, Chicago White Sox (16.71)
- Dellin Betances, New York Yankees (16.62)
- Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox (16.62)
- James Hoyt, Houston Astros (16.20)
- Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers (16.11)
Kimbrel and Jansen have been the best closers in baseball so far this season, and Betances has the potential to do the job at an elite level. However, most casual baseball fans don’t know the names Tommy Kahnle or James Hoyt.
Kahnle might be the closer of the future for the White Sox, though he will likely be one of the most highly sought after middle relievers at the trade deadline this season. The 27-year-old right-hander has a 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP with 39 strikeouts in 21 innings so far.
Hoyt, a 30-year old second year big leaguer who has been overshadowed early this year by fellow Astros reliever Chris Devenski eye-popping strikeout rate, has a 2.03 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 13.1 innings.
Random MLB Power Rankings: Top 10 prospects
- Yoan Moncada, 2B, Chicago White Sox
- Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets
- Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals
- Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees
- J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
- Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Ozzie Albies, IF, Atlanta Braves
- Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
- Clint Frazier, OF, New York Yankees
- Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
With Dodgers rookie slugger Cody Bellinger nearing the end of his prospect status, it’s a good time to look at some of the minor league stars expected to break into majors over the next few years.
Actually, nine of the 10 players listed above could potentially be in the big leagues by the end of this season, with only Robles currently playing below Double-A. Seven are in Triple-A, with Devers and Kopech playing for Double-A Portland and Birmingham, respectively.
Moncada, a switch-hitting second baseman that made his big league debut with the Red Sox last season, was traded to Chicago in the Chris Sale deal over the winter. Moncada has posted a .320/.400/.497 slash with six home runs and 10 stolen bases in 38 games for Triple-A Charlotte, and could be in the majors any day now.
Kopech, who was also part of that deal, has arguably the best arm in the minors, and consistently hits 100 miles an hour on the radar gun – though the White Sox may be patient and push his MLB debut to 2018.
Useless Info
Prior to Ervin Santana’s May 23 complete game, the last Minnesota starter to throw two in a season was Carl Pavano in 2010. Santana had four complete games in both 2010 and 2011.
According to a Tweet from Daren Willman, Mike Leake has thrown 11.5 percent of his pitches on the four corners of the strike zone, which leads the major leagues among pitchers with at least 500 pitches this season.
As MLB Stat of the Day pointed out, the Pirates became the third team in major league history to hit back-to-back-to-back home runs in extra innings Wednesday night in Atlanta. All three have occurred during month of May. The Twins were the first on May 2, 1964, and the Royals did it May 31, 2002.
ESPN Stats & Info noted Red Sox starter Chris Sale became the fifth pitcher since 1900 to record 100 strikeouts or more in his first 10 starts of a season. Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling were the others.
Clayton Kershaw joined three of those pitchers – Johnson, Schilling and Clemens – with his 20th 10-strikeout, zero-walk game May 23. Johnson has the most all-time (36), followed by Schilling (27) and Clemens (21) according to Baseball-Reference.
Next: MLB Standings: Big week for Dodgers, Red Sox
The Seattle Mariners were outscored 41-5 by the White Sox and Nationals May 19-24, which as ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian pointed out put them in an exclusive club with the 1887 Washington Nationals (a short-lived NL club) and 1969 San Diego Padres to be outscored by 40 or more runs while scoring no more than one run in five straight games. Also of note, the Mariners have never been outscored by more in a five-game losing streak.