Fantasy Baseball May 2017: Top hitters in each category
By Gavin Tramps
We will take a look at some of best fantasy players this month, ranging from the hottest sluggers to speediest base stealers.
May is an underappreciated month in fantasy baseball. A lot of time is invested in the preseason, researching players, monitoring Spring Training and then preparing for the draft. When the action finally starts, fantasy leagues are at their most active in April. Every roster move, injury or productive game prompts a waiver claim.
When the calendar moves to May, a few owners take their eye off the ball, and some teams have even fallen out of contention. This allows the advantage to pass to the more active, the more dedicated owners. And as you’re reading this article, that’s you.
Not that production in May is indicative of the whole season. Usually, it is like any other month, just a small snapshot of the season. Last May, Adam Duvall and Khris Davis led the league with 11 home runs each. It was the best month of the season for both players. Although both enjoyed career years, neither hit double-digit home runs in a month again.
Sometimes production in May is the tell-tale sign of a potential breakout. In April 2016, the Brewers’ shortstop hit .237 and was caught stealing twice in seven attempts. He did nothing to warrant much attention. In May, he became the Jonathan Villar that would go on to lead MLB in stolen bases (62) and also hit a career-high 19 home runs with a .829 OPS.
That month, Villar stole 15 bases to lead the majors but was probably still available in half of all fantasy leagues. Those who picked him up were rewarded with excellent production for the rest of the season, despite ‘experts’ suggesting to sell high with the Brewers’ prospect Orlando Arcia waiting for promotion.
Some of the category leaders for May over the next few pages will be expected, and others will be surprising.
HOME RUNS
Even though I check the box scores on a daily basis, I’m always surprised when I research one of these articles about the monthly leaders. Let’s be honest, not many of us expected Ryan Zimmerman and Eric Thames to be leading the majors in home runs at the end of April.
Neither player was able to maintain their elite level of production going into May, with Zimmerman hitting four home runs and Thames going deep three times.
The list of players to hit nine home runs in May is long and varied. With 318 career home runs, Jose Bautista is one of the most prolific sluggers of his generation. Last season was a down year when he posted the lowest batting average of his career and hit just 22 home runs, compared to an average of 38 over the previous seven seasons. Nine home runs and a 1.077 OPS in May and it looks like Joey Bats is back.
Joey Gallo entered the year as a post-hype prospect and even after a good start to the season, was struggling to convince fantasy baseball owners to believe in him. Gallo, who has shifted over to first base since the return of Adrian Beltre, only had 12 extra-base hits in May but nine of them went for home runs. He has a dismal .212 batting average, and his 25% HR/FB rate would look less sustainable if it were any other player.
Brett Gardner, Jake Lamb, Cody Bellinger and Mike Trout also hit nine home runs in May.
Yonder Alonso came into the season with an ADP outside of the top-400 yet he hit 10 home runs in May and was leading MLB until the final day of the month.
The Athletics’ first baseman is only 70% owned in CBS leagues, 49% in ESPN leagues and 51% in Yahoo leagues. He struggles against tough left-handed pitchers, and the 27.5% HR/FB is unsustainable, but even so, he should not be available in half of fantasy leagues.
Logan Morrison, another player that was not drafted in the first 400 picks, joins Alonso with 10 runs in the month of May. Also like Alonso, Morrison is benefitting from a career-high HR/FB rate (23.7%) which will almost certainly fall in subsequent months. Morrison is hitting the ball harder, more frequently. His 42.6% hard-hit ball rate a significant improvement on his 32.5% career mark.
Miami Marlins Justin Bour
That’s right, Justin Bour is the only player to hit 11 home runs in May. The Marlins’ first baseman slashed .344/.427/.729 in the month with 18 runs and 21 RBI. The 29-year-old dismissed any concerns that his fantasy value would be affected by a potential platoon, by hitting .343 against lefties.
At the start of the season, I wrote about two underrated first basemen, Steve Pearce and Bour. Both were in an elite group of sluggers with superstars like Miguel Cabrera and Nolan Arenado. Players who walked more than 10% of the time, struck out less than 20% and had an isolated power above .200.
Pearce has spent most of the month on the DL but Bour, with an ADP of 328, has catapulted himself into a must-own player in all formats. Amazingly, he is available in 46% of ESPN leagues, 31% of CBS and 39% of Yahoo.
Even more than Morrison and Alonso, Bour is benefitting from an unsustainably high HR/FB rate of over 30%, so do not expect this level of elite production to continue.
Do not underestimate his power. The left-hander ranks third on the hard-hit ball chart with 48.5%, just behind Miguel Sano and Paul Goldschmidt but ahead of renowned sluggers Miguel Cabrera and Aaron Judge.
Judge, the early favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year award, hit seven home runs in May but leads MLB with 17 for the season, putting him just ahead of Trout, Gallo, Davis and the NL leader Scott Schebler with 16.
STOLEN BASES
Billy Hamilton is an enigma. He is still striking out 20% of the time, and he seldom walks (6.9% walk rate).
His .306 OBP is unsatisfactory for a player hitting at the top of the order. Of the 19 regular leadoff hitters in the game (min. 160 PA), Hamilton has the second-worst OBP.
His .075 ISO is even lower than last season. ISO (isolated power) is a stat that measures a player’s raw power by indicating how frequently they get extra-base hits. Hamilton poses so little power that only three qualified hitters (Dee Gordon, Alcides Escobar and Alex Gordon) have a lower ISO this season.
In the sabermetrics world rather than the fantasy world, wRC+ is the preferred metric to determine the offensive value of a batter. 100 wRC+ is an average hitter. Hamilton’s 69 wRC+ is so poor that there are only 14 qualified hitters lower than this in 2017.
Despite all of these failings, Hamilton is the top player on the ESPN Player Rater over the last 30 days, thanks to 27 runs, two doubles, three triples, one home run, 14 RBI and the league leading 16 stolen bases.
In a world of ever-decreasing stolen bases, Hamilton is in a class of his own. He now has 28 stolen bases on the season. Last year, only 14 players stole more than 28 bases over the whole season.
Like Hamilton, Dee Gordon is a light-hitting speedster with little to offer in the home runs or RBI categories. Back in 2015, Gordon posted a .333 AVG, but he has hit .276 in the 139 games since. The 29-year-old swiped 11 bags in May and is on pace for the third 50-stolen base season of his career.
I liked Cameron Maybin as a sleeper going into the season, but he scuffed his way through the first six weeks before heating up with a three-steal game on May 14. Since then, he has slashed .360/.508/.620 with five doubles, a triple and two home runs. He has walked more times than he has struck out, and with Yunel Escobar on the DL, Maybin has been leading off.Obviously, his value will take a hit with the loss of Mike Trout from the lineup, but with 10 stolen bases in May, Maybin has demonstrated that he offers elite stolen base potential with contributions in all of the other standard categories.
Obviously, his value will take a hit with the loss of Mike Trout from the lineup, but with 10 stolen bases in May, Maybin has demonstrated that he offers elite stolen base potential with contributions in all of the other standard categories.
RUNS
Two of the best players in the game, Paul Goldschmidt, and Bryce Harper are the leading run scorers in 2017 with 46 and 44 runs respectively. With Mike Trout out of action for the next couple of months, there is an argument that either one could supplant him as the top player in fantasy.
Goldschmidt is on pace for 135 runs. He already has 12 home runs and 12 stolen bases. In a similar way to Trout, Goldschmidt has an understated way of playing the game which does not attract attention that Harper does. If the Diamondbacks’ first baseman were more flamboyant or played in a bigger market, he would likely be far more appreciated in fantasy baseball. I argued pre-season that he should be the second player off draft boards behind Mike Trout.
Regardless of the wishes of MLB, Harper is the face of baseball. He is one of the most exciting, dynamic young players in the game and we are almost at the stage where every plate appearance is a must watch for baseball fans. The 24-year-old could easily be the No.1 fantasy player by the end of the season. He is hitting .328 with 44 runs and 43 RBI. Harper is yet to steal a base in 2017, but we have seen the damage that can be done while trying to swipe a bag.
In May, Goldschmidt and Harper were outscored by the Reds’ speedster Billy Hamilton and the Rays’ Corey Dickerson, who both led the league with 27 runs. Another player enjoying an excellent month was Mets’ outfielder Michael Conforto with 25 runs.
Dickerson has been sensational, hitting .349 but has struck out 29 times to only five walks. The 29-year-old is doing damage against right-handed pitching, with 11 of his 12 home runs coming off righties while slugging .625.
We covered Hamilton in the previous page on stolen bases but in simplistic terms. Hamilton gets on-base at a frustratingly low rate, but when he does reach, he will run, he will steal, and while the Reds’ sluggers of Joey Votto, Adam Duvall and Schebler continue to hit, Hamilton will score. There is potential for eye-watering numbers in the stolen bases and runs categories. Just imagine if he could get up to .380 OBP.
Conforto is enjoying extended playing in the Mets’ outfield with Yoenis Cespedes still banged up and on the DL. The 24-year-old hit .314 in May with seven home runs, 25 runs and 21 RBI.
RBI
It is often cited that RBI is a stat more due to luck or circumstance than skill, but there is no denying that the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado was a deserved leader of MLB last year with 133 RBI. This year he is on pace for another 100-RBI season, with 16 in April and 18 in May. The third baseman is the model of consistency.
Another player with remarkable consistency is Arenado’s teammate Charlie Blackmon. The outfielder leads MLB with 46 RBI this season after picking up 24 in April and 22 in May. Blackmon may not be the threat on the base paths that he was before, with only four stolen bases this year compared to 43 in 2015, but he is piling up counting stats in the other categories with 13 home runs, 39 runs, 46 RBI and an elite .326 AVG.
The Reds’ Adam Duvall is the surprising RBI leader in May with 28. The 28-year-old already has 46 RBI this year and is proving that his breakout season of 2016 was no fluke. Duvall has improved his batting average and on-base percentage, obviously both helped by striking out less. He has always benefitted from a high HR/FB rate, but it is even higher this year at 20.9%.
Cody Bellinger was one of the most hyped prospects coming into the season, but it looked like there was no spot for him in the Dodgers’ lineup. His call-up to the big leagues on April 25 was surprising, but with Joc Pederson landing on the DL, quickly followed by Adrian Gonzalez, Bellinger has played every game since for the Dodgers.
The left-hander hit nine home runs with 27 RBI in May, so unless he endures an extended slump, he is in the majors to stay.
Although he possesses many attributes that are not recognized in fantasy baseball, the Astros’ Carlos Correa has been the best all-round player in May. With 1.9 fWAR, the 22-year-old hit seven home runs with 24 runs and 26 RBI. No other player had 50 or more runs/RBI combined. He slashed .386/.457/.673 to help Houston reinforce its spot at the top of the AL West standings.
As for April’s RBI leader Ryan Zimmerman, he picked up 15 RBI in May to take him to 44 for the season. It was obvious that his production would slip, but he still hit a robust .319 in May.
BATTING AVERAGE
To prevent any confusion with part-time players, we are only looking at qualified hitters.
Last month, Ryan Zimmerman was immense, hitting .420 which should keep him at the top of the batting average leaders for at least another month or two. He hit .319 in May to drop his 2017 average down to .368.
No other player is hitting over .350, but there are six players hitting between .340 – .350.
It is no surprise that one is Buster Posey. He is always a reliable source of batting average. Jean Segura hit .319 last year and has continued the consistent hitting into 2017. Freddie Freeman is currently hitting .341 and looks like he could be a first-round pick next season.
Even in his very best seasons, Matt Kemp never hit .345. It is safe to assume his average will drop as the year goes on. In his last two years with the Rockies, Corey Dickerson hit over .300, so this season’s return to form looks legitimate.
Coming into the season, Zack Cozart had a career batting average of .246. This year he is hitting .347, a full 101 points higher. I honestly don’t know what to say.
In May, there was a resurgence from the Astros’ shortstop Carlos Correa. Not usually known as a source of batting average, Correa had a career .276 AVG before the start of the season. He started 2017 slowly with a .658 OPS in April but ignited in May, hitting eight doubles and seven home runs on his way to posting a league-leading .379 AVG for the month.
Another player who rebounded sensationally after a dismal start to the season is Blue Jays’ second baseman, Devon Travis. He was dropped in many leagues after hitting just .130 in April. Not only did he transform his season with .364 AVG for May, but Travis did it with 16 doubles and four home runs.
Charlie Blackmon just cannot stop hitting. The Rockies’ outfielder hit .363 in May despite just four walks to 25 strikeouts. Blackmon is maturing into a hitter to all fields. He is going opposite field 28.4% of the time, which is a big increase up from 24.8% last season and 22.5% in 2015.
ON-BASE PERCENTAGE
To prevent any confusion with part-time players, we are only looking at qualified hitters.
There is a sense of normality when the monthly category leaders are the truly elite players in the game.
Mike Trout had .484 OBP in May. I don’t need to tell you how good Mike Trout is but despite being probably the greatest player that any of us have ever seen, he is only 25-years-old and he is getting better.
This season, Trout has a .405 ISO (career-high) with 17.5% walk rate (career-high) and .337 batting average (career-high). He leads MLB, tied with Freddie Freeman, with .461 OBP (career-high). Other career-highs include .742 SLG, 213 wRC+, 41.9% hard-hit ball rate. The list goes on.
Unfortunately for the baseball world, Trout will miss the next 6-8 weeks after surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb. The hope is that he will be back to being an elite producer in two months, but as with all injuries, this one could linger.
Joey Votto was one of the most underrated players in this year’s draft. A player that you could get in the third round but was a genuine first round talent. He posted .471 OBP in May. It looks amazing, but it is not a career-high. In the second half of last season, Votto posted an incredible .490 OBP to go along with his .408 AVG. This year Votto has hit 14 home runs and has walked 39 times to 29 strikeouts. That’s a 1.34 walk-to-strikeout rate.
Amazingly Buster Posey has an even better walk-to-strikeout rate of 1.53. The Giants’ catcher has only struck out 15 times this season; no other qualified hitter has as few strikeouts. Posey has a .462 OBP for May giving him a .445 OBP for the season, but you didn’t need these stats to tell you that Posey is a hugely valuable player in OBP leagues.
MAY. A month of surprises
There were many surprises when researching this article, but perhaps the most surprising was the availability of some of these players. It is obviously interesting that the top three home run hitters in May were undrafted in standard leagues, but it is incredible that at least two of them are still available in half of fantasy leagues.
Last season, Jonathan Villar and Adam Duvall both broke out in May. The duo helped many fantasy teams to the championship. Make sure you are on your game to pick up the next Villar or Duvall