30 teams in 30 days: Milwaukee Bucks offseason preview

30 teams in 30 days is a series to get you ready for the NBA offseason — a quick preview of each team’s free agent and salary cap ramifications to help set the table for their summer.

Like a few other teams, forces entirely out of their control will define Milwaukee’s summer. Greg Monroe holds a player option for 2017-18 for $17.9 million and Spencer Hawes can opt-in for $6.0 million for the coming season. If both players opt in, the Bucks are out of space and even staring down the barrel of a luxury tax bill for the first time since 2003.

With Monroe and Hawes in tow and Giannis Antetokounmpo’s four-year, $100 million extension kicking in, the Bucks are looking at a total salary output of $107.9 million for next season, without taking into consideration the offer Tony Snell will receive in his restricted free agency or what they’ll pay their No. 17 overall pick in the draft. As constructed, they would be just $13.1 million away from the tax, which could force some tough decisions for Milwaukee’s front office.

Snell is expected to receive an offer somewhere in the low eight figures, though a smart team with cap space and minutes to fill on the wing (looking at you, Brooklyn) might push their offer higher than that to dissuade the Bucks from matching. Former Bucks general manager John Hammond, told reporters after their season ended that Snell would be back with the team, though it remains to be seen how Milwaukee will handle his free agency now that Hammond has departed for Orlando, another team who could clear the space to give Snell an offer that would push the Bucks into the tax.

The general consensus around the league is that Snell will command a contract in the neighborhood of four-years and $48 million, which would fit snugly into that $13.1 million the Bucks have between their current salary and the $121 million luxury tax line. Milwaukee’s new front office will have the first crack at negotiating with Snell and laying out a $48 million contract, perhaps with a player option to entice him to agree before the restricted free agent market opens up, might be enough to get the job done.

Milwaukee holds Snell’s Bird Rights, which means that they can offer eight percent raises each year, rather than the five percent raises another team can offer. When thinking about an equal value contract, Snell’s 2017-18 salary would be significantly lower, with larger raises each year to give him the same total value. These eight percent raises are an immense value for Milwaukee, who will have to squeeze every dollar to evade the tax. A contract at $48 million over four years gives the Bucks just enough space to sign their first-round draft pick, with less than $300,000 to spare.

Two important notes on the luxury tax as it relates to Milwaukee: First, cap holds have no impact on the tax, so they could keep their free agent holds and trade exceptions on their books. Second, the luxury tax isn’t computed until the end of the league year, which means they could sign an additional player or two and make an in-season trade to sneak back under the tax by the end of the year.

All of the above applies only if Monroe opts in. It’s been an roller coaster few years for Monroe in Milwaukee but ended on a high note in the 2017 playoffs, where he was part of a terrific Bucks defense. There’s been no public indication as to his decision; it’s not officially due until June 22, the day of the draft, which could make for some interesting fireworks on draft night if Monroe opts in and is traded that same night. If Monroe does opt out, then the Bucks don’t gain a ton of cap flexibility but would be able to leave worries of the luxury tax behind:

Milwaukee would operate as an over-the-cap team, since Monroe’s $22.3 million cap hold would still be on their books if he opts out. Even renouncing him and completely wiping him off the ledger doesn’t net them an ounce of space, so until Monroe signs with another team, the Bucks might as well retain his cap hold.

Next: 30 teams in 30 days: Chicago Bulls offseason preview

In this scenario, a large offer for Snell from another team wouldn’t change Milwaukee’s plan; they could match with no tax implications. The Bucks could also make full use of their mid-level exception to bring in talent to continue to build on what is one of the brightest futures in the league.