MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus June 3 (Main)
By Matt Rogers
We’re back with another Daily Pitching Focus for tonight’s MLB FanDuel main slate. Saturday night’s sabermetrics, specifically splits, do not favor pitchers, but we’ll find the top option, a fade option, sneaky pick, and value pick for your lineups tonight.
Even after a full slate of day games, we still have five games to pick through, or ten teams, for tonight’s MLB FanDuel main slate. That provides us with plenty of options at pitcher, and will allow us to find several hitting targets as well.
Unfortunately for the pitcher pick of the lineup, there aren’t great splits set up for almost every pitching option. So we’re going to have to focus on some specific stat targets, like strikeout and walk percentages, and evaluate each pitchers value so far this season, to identify the best options. Along with some great picks, we’ll also tell you who we’re targeting for the rest of the lineup. Here’s a look at tonight’s MLB schedule, and who is pitching:
HOU Lance McCullers Jr. at TEX Andrew Cashner (7:15pm ET)
BOS David Price at BAL Dylan Bundy (7:15pm ET)
PIT Tyler Glasnow at NYM Robert Gsellman (7:15pm ET)
MIN Ervin Santana at LAA Matt Shoemaker (10:07pm ET)
TB Alex Cobb at SEA Sam Gaviglio (10:10pm ET)
Let’s start by looking at our top scoring MLB FanDuel pitcher for Saturday’s Main slate…
Next: Top Scoring Pitcher
Top Scoring MLB FanDuel Pitcher
David Price ($9,600) is your most expensive pitcher on the mound tonight, for MLB FanDuel. Price’s salary is more likely the result of his career than his season thus far. Price has been on the DL most of the year, and only recently pitched the first game of his season, on May 29th in Chicago against the White Sox. The outing didn’t go well. Price gave up two hits, two walks, and three earned runs in only five innings, along with four K’s, totaling only 18 MLB FanDuel points.
It’s likely the Red Sox won’t push Price, and I don’t expect him to go beyond five or six innings again tonight. The low innings projection, recent stint on the DL, and results so far this year, make David a risky play at pitcher tonight. The Orioles would be a decent matchup, historically, but they’ve been ok against LHP at home so far, and Price doesn’t wow me yet. He’s a heavy fade tonight.
After review the rest of the list, I keep coming back to Lance McCullers Jr. ($9,500). The Texans are actually 10th, with a +112 wRC+ against RHPs at home. That’s not bad. But like we said earlier, no one really has a great match up tonight. And McCullers has been consistently hot, and getting hotter, all season.
Lance has the highest K% of all the pitchers tonight, 27.6%. And the Rangers have a 21.2% K against RHP at home, so it’s likely McCullers will be on the high-end of his K range, likely near the ten K’s Lance had against the Rangers in early May, when his landed 47 MLB FanDuel points. It probably won’t be a big points night for pitchers, but McCullers is a decent bet for roughly 50 points tonight.
Next: Top McCullers Fade
Top McCullers Fade
Another good pitcher pitching away from home tonight is Ervin Santana ($9,200). The tough thing about Santana’s option is the Angles are 12th, two behind the Rangers, in wRC+ (111) against RHP’s at home. So like McCullers, Santana doesn’t have an ideal matchup.
However, the Angels have one of the lowest walks rates in this situation, only 7.9%. That’s what makes Ervin so appealing. While Santana had 55 and 40 MLB FanDuel points over the last two starts, he only had six strikeouts. Ervin isn’t a high strikeout guy, 19.3% K ratio or fifth of the ten tonight. But Santana has the lowest WHIP, 0.84, among the pitching options tonight (tossing out Price’s one game), and has pitched seven to nine innings each game. He’s a quick-out, low pitch count, workhorse.
If you’re sold on McCullers, or realize he’s going to be too chalky tonight (he will be chalky)m then Santana is a great Lance fade on Saturday night. Ervin doesn’t have a great match up, but he’s likely to pitch the bulk of the game for the Twins, and will keep the Angels off the base path, especially without Trout in the lineup.
Next: Cheap Value & Sneaky Pick
Cheap Value
While looking at the splits tonight, one thing I couldn’t shake was how solid of a match up Tyler Glasnow ($6,600) was set up for today. On the surface, I don’t love this pick. Glasnow has struggled in the majors in his rookie season.
But Tyler is gradually getting better and throws gas. Also, the Mets are 22 in wRC+ against RHP at home, pretty poor results. And Glasnow is tied with Price for 3rd in K% among the pitchers tonight, 20%. So if you’re looking to load up on bats, Tyler is your clear winner, and has a shot at 30+ MLB FanDuel points tonight.
Sneaky Pick
The Orioles have struggled lately, and haven’t performed well against the Red Sox at home. Also, the Red Sox have a high 9.2% walk rate against RHP when outside of Fenway, and are 7th in wRC+, or 106.
But aside from a nine MLB FanDuel point shelling in Detroit, Dylan Bundy ($8,300) has been hot this year, mostly landing near 40 MLB FanDuel points. Bundy has kept his ERA down to 2.89 and WHIP down to 1.00 in 71.2 innings, great results. So while Bundy doesn’t have a great match up, and I expect many to fade Dylan, he’s a solid sneaky pick tonight.
Next: Offensive Pitching Target
Offensive Pitching Target
Now that we’ve found several great pitching options for tonight, we’ll turn our attention to the pitchers we believe are hard fades, but you should target for hitting stacks.
Astros vs. Andrew Cashner
The Houston Astros currently have the hottest team, and offense in baseball. Any time they have a great matchup, they’re ideal for stacks. The only downside is they’re often expensive.
Tonight, the Astros are facing a RHP away from home, where they hold a 128 wRC+, the best in baseball. Houston also has a low 18.5% K ratio in this situation, and .840 OBP. Match those stats with Cashner’s very low 10.7% strikeout rate, and we realize tonight is a great opportunity for the Astros offense to go bonkers. Andrew does have a low ERA but he’s giving up almost five walks per game. Also, he’s struggled to last more than five or six innings, and have up five earned runs in just five innings two weeks ago to the Red Sox. Spend big on the Astros lineup tonight!
Rays vs. Sam Gaviglio
Does Cashner have the lowest strikeout ratio among the starting pitchers tonight? Not exactly. He’s tide with Gaviglio, who also has only 10.7%.
Tonight, Sam is facing a Rays team who has one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball. But that won’t matter with Gaviglio on the mound. The Rays are more likely to get on base tonight. Also, Sam has given up nearly two home runs per game, so the Rays slugging percentage should spike as well.
If you need more affordable stacking options, look at all of the Rays hitters tonight and expect a big offensive night from Tampa, in Seattle.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Always check MLB lineups throughout the day when playing MLB FanDuel. You can typically find starting pitchers a few days, or day before, each game. But as the season progresses, pitchers develop injuries, sometimes only hours, or less, before a game. So stay tuned for changes before locking in your lineup. Also, weather events can cancel a game, crushing your entire lineup. So it’s important to become a weather geek, like me, if you want to stack that cash in MLB FanDuel.
Follow us on twitter, @fantasycpr, for updates as we get closer to lineup lock time. Good Luck today FanDuelers!