AAA 400 Drive for Autism preview, forecast and predictions

The Monster Mile can prove tricky, but there are plenty of drivers who have to be liking their chances this Sunday at Dover.

Every week of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, you can point to one or two drivers who figure to have a better chance than most of the field to end up in Victory Lane. For the AAA 400 Drive for Autism at Dover International Speedway, the list of contenders seems endless.

Jimmie Johnson has won the race five times, including three of the last five times it’s been contested. Kyle Larson finished third and second the last two years and dominated the XFINITY Series race for long stretched on Saturday. And oh yeah, he was also fastest in final practice.

Joe Gibbs Racing’s 2017 frustrations are well documented, but Kyle Busch will start from the pole and seems to be due for a victory any week. Teammate Matt Kenseth hasn’t looked quite as fast, but he is the defending race winner and definitely knows his way around Dover.

We should throw Martin Truex Jr. in the mix as well, since he’s been good pretty much everywhere this season and also starts from the front row. Even Daniel Suarez, who won the spring XFINITY Series race in 2016 and looked great again on Saturday, could be a factor.

That’s a rather long-winded way of saying that any number of drivers could contend for the AAA 400 win and not surprise anyone. Add in what could be a slippery track, two drivers (Ross Chastain and Ryan Seig) making their Cup Series debuts and stage racing hitting Dover for the first time and it should be an unpredictable afternoon. And frankly, those are usually the best kind.

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Forecast

About a week ago, the AAA 400 Drive for Autism looked like it was in serious danger of a rain delay or postponement. No such worries now. Weather.com says it will be nice and warm on Sunday afternoon, with temperatures in the low to mid-80s. One thing to watch is that there should be some cloud cover early on but less near the end of the race, which could make the track change more than usual from start to finish.

Three things to watch

• To bite lost out to no bite. Dover officials discussed the use of TrackBite, the compound formerly known as VHT, like Bristol and Charlotte did earlier this season. But they ultimately decided against it, which could mean less two-lane racing. However, cars were able to pass both low and high when needed on Saturday, so leaving well enough alone may have been the right call.
• Track position is king. The XFINITY Series race did have a few passes for the lead, but it generally featured guys getting out in front and then other drivers needing to work for quite some time to run them down. That’s usually been the case in the last few spring Cup Series races as well, so this is one race you definitely don’t want to lose any spots in the pits.
• Tires are the crown princes. Several teams, including the one that produced the eventual winner for Larson, expressed concern about tires on Saturday. Cars who tried staying out on old tires also found it didn’t work at all, so don’t expect anyone to try getting too tricky in this area on Sunday. Four-tire stops should be the norm.

Predictions

Very little is certain about the AAA 400 Drive for Autism except that either Kyle Busch or Truex will probably get out in front when the green flag drops and lead a lot of laps. Whether they will be able to hold off a bunch of other strong challengers over the course of 400 laps around the concrete is another story altogether.

So we’re going with the “other Kyle,” Kyle Larson, who finished third here in 2015 before he was even the contender he is today and nearly ran down Kenseth last year before settling for second. Third, second, first has a nice progression to it for the 42.

Since Dover isn’t the place to pick a true dark horse, we’ll hedge our bet with more of a Plan B in Daniel Suarez. Stout on Saturday even on slightly older tires than some other cars, he definitely seems to like Dover just fine. This year’s rookies have been impressive enough that a victory for one of them would not be a shocker, so why not Sunday for Suarez?