Terrance Ferguson plays 3-and-D, but the rest of his game needs help

Terrance Ferguson didn’t take the conventional path to the 2017 NBA Draft. The 19-year old Tulsa native was a five-star recruit coming out of high school. He was a star on the high school AAU circuit, and he was great in the Nike Hoops Summit, scoring 21 points on seven made 3-point attempts. He was able to match fellow class of 2016 players like Markelle Fultz and Jayson Tatum in both productivity and highlight production.

However, the NCAA never was going to materialize for Ferguson. He originally committed to Alabama, but decommitted in March of 2016. He eventually wound up on Arizona’s radar, but would have to fight through the NCAA clearinghouse for academic approval after attending Prime Prep in Dallas, the same school that gave Emmanual Mudiay issues in trying to enroll at SMU. Rather than wait for a doubtful NCAA approval, Ferguson just skipped ahead to Mudiay’s end result, and decided to play professionally overseas.

Ferguson’s lone season in Australia undoubtedly hurt his stock. He struggled to compete in the professional atmosphere, playing just 15.2 minutes per game for the Adelaide 36ers. He averaged a mere 4.6 points and 1.1 rebounds per game, shot 31.3 percent from beyond the arc, and generally struggled to find ways to be effective for his squad. Unlike Mudiay and Brandon Jennings before him, Ferguson’s stock dropped from top-10 recruit to a likely late first-round draft pick.

Ferguson struggled to look like a rotation-level player for the 36ers, showing some significant limitations on the offensive end that likely capped his ability to stay on the floor. But Ferguson’s potential stayed present, and it does appear he is worth a flier as a late-first round pick.

In a draft devoid of sure things in the 3-and-D wing mold, Ferguson stands out with his athleticism and potential to develop in both of those areas. At 6-foot-7 with a long, slender frame, he has decent size for a shooting guard, and his leaping game makes his a fantastic transition player. If he can get a straight line at the rim, he’s one of the better dunkers in this draft class.

This athleticism gets his foot in the door for NBA teams, even if he’s not that strong at harnessing it yet. His length and agility bode well for his defensive capabilities, where he can disrupt passing lanes, and wall off the lane for opposing guards. Ferguson does a solid job of contesting shots on the perimeter and rotating on defense. With his tools, there’s a path to seeing Ferguson as a multi-positional defender if you look hard enough.

Ferguson’s defensive numbers weren’t great in Australia, where he posted just seven steals and eight blocks all season. Those are a big red flag for someone as athletic as he is, and they bring to question how high his true ceiling is if he couldn’t find a way to cause havoc plays in the NBL. This could be a chance of random sample, however, as well as the defensive system employed by his team. Much like many European leagues, the Australian league is more isolation-heavy than the NBA, and that limited Ferguson’s ability to showcase his more opportunistic nature in a team defense.

One-on-one against stronger opponents, Ferguson doesn’t contain penetration well, as he isn’t strong enough at this point to handle a bullish drive to the rim. His lack of strength allows him to get bulldozed, and while he gives good effort to get tied up and force the steal below, there’s just no way to see him handling drives efficiently one-on-one yet.

This was a big reason for Ferguson’s poor defensive metrics in Australia — facing a constant stream of isolation drives against more physically mature competition, Ferguson’s strength deficit was put on blast throughout the season in a way that it probably wouldn’t have at Arizona. This problem won’t go away for him in the NBA, of course, and he does need to get stronger to have a shot at reaching his potential. But I’m still relatively high on Ferguson’s defensive capabilities, as his effort, length, and quickness are all big positives if his strength and defensive IQ progress.

Ferguson’s offensive game currently centers around the 3-point line, which may give some pause due to his poor percentage there this past season, and his suspect 60 percent shooting at the free throw line. However, these poor numbers came in a very small sample — 67 3-point attempts, and just 20 free throw attempts. A shooting slump at the end of the season (he was just 4-of-19 on 3-pointers over his last 11 games) capsized his percentages for the entire year.

Film study shows that there are some positives about his shooting. Ferguson does have a fairly wonky jumper — he generates some incredible lift on the jumper, but it takes him an extra second to load up, and he sways on the release. It’s consistent, but it takes a few views to really appreciate the unique form.

Ferguson’s jumper is “unique,” and not “broken.” It’s a legitimate weapon for him, and helped him carve out a role over the second half of the season, even as his shot wasn’t falling. Ferguson showed potential as a catch-and-shoot wing, showing good timing both shooting from a standstill and more importantly, on the move.

Ferguson’s length and high release will help him as a jump-shooter in the NBA, as he can extend and get a shot off against lengthy contests. A benefit of his length in this league is that he wasn’t facing many long, athletic perimeter defenders in the NBL — however, he’s shown he can beat these in the past, as his performance in the Nike Hoops Summit attests to.

Ferguson doesn’t have a complete spot-up profile yet. He’s not good at attacking closeouts due to his sloppy handle, and he can be over-reliant on his shooting in these situations as a result. This may limit his effectiveness as the defense can attack him more aggressively, knowing there’s minimal threat of a counterattack to keep them honest. Right now, Ferguson’s off-the-dribble game is most useful in transition, where he can attack more freely, and he is going to have to become a more competent ball-handler to further grow into this role.

Ferguson’s offensive ceiling is probably not that high, a disappointment given his illustrious high school career. He definitely is going to be a role player on offense, as he lacks advanced ball skills and scoring instincts to create shots for himself. He can create pull-up shots off the dribble, but he is erratic in his form, and his strength lags behind enough that it’s fair to question if he ever gets to the rim in the NBA. He’s only a mediocre passer, and doesn’t provide much as an off-ball cutter. He’s almost strictly a 3-point shooter at this point. However, he does have some quirky areas of his game worth developing. The first is a decent low-post game that he showed in spurts, using his jumper as the primary weapon.

Using his high-release jumper, Ferguson’s turnaround from the block is very fluid, and he’s shown craftiness at generating shots from down low. His strength won’t allow him to back guys down, so it limits how well he’ll be able to establish position — however, this could be an area to continue to improve, as this post game could be a nice weapon allowing him to play up a position against mismatches in small-ball lineups.

Ferguson has also shown effectiveness as an offensive rebounder. He’s very active on the offensive glass, attacking from the perimeter on long shots and showing good energy in battling for boards in traffic. With his length and leaping ability, he should be an above-average rebounder for his position in the NBA.

Skepticism for Ferguson’s NBA future is very warranted. Right now he looks like a player who can be a 3-and-D wing, but those are really the only sure qualities he possesses, and he didn’t prove to be consistent with either in Australia. He certainly looks the part thanks to his athleticism, which is top-notch. However, investing in his development likely means banking on that athleticism getting him by in the early stages of his career.

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If he can add more strength, become a more consistent shooter, and develop further as a spot-up weapon, there’s a lot to like about Ferguson’s fit in an NBA role. But there are plenty of reasons to doubt he gets there, which is why he’ll sit on the fringes of the first round on draft night.