Fantasy Football Dynasty 2017: Top Five Second Year Quarterbacks

Following up on our Fantasy Football Dynasty Rookie series, we’re going to review the top 2016 rookie picks for your dynasty/keeper leagues.  Grabbing the right rookie from last season for your Fantasy Football Dynasty league, can land you a fantasy football championship for several years.

We’ll start our second year player review off with the quarterback position, an option we avoided with the rookies for 2017.  This year’s draft unfortunately had a lackluster list of stud quarterbacks, and many of the QB drafted players won’t see the field for a few years.  So there’s no reason to grab them in a dynasty league now.  However, the last two seasons have been an exception.

Last year, if you were bold enough to keep Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota as rookies from the 2015 season, the payoff may have already come, or is coming soon.  Mariota’s interceptions were capped below ten last season, with over 3,400 yards passing an 26 touchdowns.  If you played in an ESPN fantasy league, Marcus was the 13th best quarterback all season.  Quite a bargain for a rookie.  

Winston was only a couple of ticks lower, at 16th.  The big problem with Jameis is the 18 INT’s.  But like Mariota, Winston is dynamic when tucking the ball and, separately, threw for over 4,000 yards, 600 more than Marcus.  So really either quarterback puts you in a great spot as a starter, and even better as a QB2.

So who are the top five quarterbacks you should stash on your keeper list this year, heading into the 2017 fantasy football draft?  Let’s start with our long-shot at number five…

Fantasy Football Dynasty Second Year QB Pick: No 5

If you play  in fantasy football dynasty leagues, but you’re not diving into the weeds of football data each week, you’re probably wondering, why is Jacoby Brissett on this list.  Brissett had some football fans, and writers, buzzing for a brief period while Brady wasn’t allow to play (due to his ridiculous suspension).  But from a fantasy football perspective, he was a non-event in 2016.

While Jacoby was on the field last season, three games and two starts, he didn’t throw a touchdown.  But Brissett completed a solid 62% of his 55 passing attempts and never through an interception.  Fairly uncommon for a rookie.  Jacoby also had 400 passing yards, or 7.27 yards per attempt, second among all rookie quarterbacks only to Prescott, who we’ll visit later on.

So at least early on in his career, Brissett seems to be settling into the pocket well.  Also, on the ground Jacoby has been dangerous.  He did have one fumble recovered by the defense, but averaged five yards per rushing attempt, after 16 rushing attempts, completed five first downs, and had a touchdown.

Yes, the great Tom Brady wants to play in the NFL for several more years, and Brady has yet to show many signs of slowing down.  But Tom is turning 40 years old this August, and the age wall is in front of him whether he likes it or not.  Also, while the Patriots have cycled through several young quarterbacks, New England grabbed Brissett fairly early, 91st overall in the 2016 NFL draft, the third round.

This is a risky dynasty investment, but if Brady goes down for a long period, or his career suddenly ends, Jacoby has a great system built around him for success.

Fantasy Football Dynasty Second Year QB Pick: No 4

Unfortunately for Jared Goff, while he was the top overall pick of the 216 NFL draft, he fell into the hands of a team who’s offense was in complete disarray.  Goff’s offensive line struggled, his receivers were sub-par, and the running game fell apart quickly.  So after last season, most dynasty fantasy owners are likely avoiding Jared as a keeper.

But, the Rams welcomed Sean McVay into L.A. as the new head coach, attempting to turn the program around, with a specific focus on offense.  McVay was able to improve the Redskins offense, which had been in a similar situation a few years ago.  Now, he’s back to square one in Los Angeles.  That should be good news for the plan to groom Goff into a franchise quarterback for the Rams.

In seven starts, Goff had 205 passing attempts, completing only 5.31 yards/attempt.  That’s the words yards/attempt among our top five second year QB dynasty options.  And I don’t expect McVay to immediately push Jared to throw the ball deep.  At least to start the season, we should see Goff throw quick slants and five to ten yard targets.  But the ultimate goal will be to open up the field beyond the ten yard marker, and Jared should get some long shots as well.

Jared only have five touchdowns and threw seven interceptions in 205 attempts, but as we pointed out, his offensive line struggled.  Goff was sacked more than any other quarterback on our list, per passing attempt, as well.  With a better pocket provided, we should see Goff’s TD rate climb, and hopefully the INT rate drop.

We all know Jared was a great NFL style quarterback in college.  He hasn’t had a solid opportunity to demonstrate his abilities in the NFL yet, but now is the time.  Goff is worth a risky dynasty second year status as a back up, or third quarterback on your roster in deep leagues.

Fantasy Football Dynasty Second Year QB Pick: No 3

Buried in the third round of the 2016 NFL draft, the Cleveland Browns may actually have finally found their franchise quarterback, Cody Kessler.

Widely expected to pick another quarterback with so many first round draft picks for the 2017 NFL draft, the Browns opted to avoid the position, and focus on top talent and other key offensive positions.  With such a poor QB draft class, that was likely the smart decision.  But also, even though the Browns seem unconvinced, trading for Osweiler’s big arm and later picking up Kizer, Cleveland singled they’re comfortable with Kessler, for now.

After reviewing Cody’s 2016 stats, I’m not surprised.  Operating on one of the NFL’s worst teams of 2016, Kessler threw for 7.08 yards per attempt, had 0.03 TD’s per attempt (tied with Wentz), only 0.01 interceptions per attempt (tied with Prescott), yet was sacked 0.11 per attempt, one of the highest rates among rookie quarterbacks.  In short, Kessler was getting a ton of pressure from defensive lines, but was still operating efficiently.  That is eye-opening!

Kessler is worth a third QB stash in all keeper leagues, and a gamble as a backup QB in standard fantasy football dynasty leagues.  With a full season under his belt this year, and more offensive weapons, Cody could be a very underrated second year quarterback for the 2017 season.

Fantasy Football Dynasty Second Year QB Pick: No 2

I debated plugging Kessler at number two on this list, which would likely be a surprise to many, but Carson Wentz has such a great first half of his rookie season, it’s hard to ignore the potential.

As the second overall pick of the 2016 NFL draft, Wentz had a ton of hype heading into the Philadelphia Eagles season.  The hype-train went full steam when the Eagles traded Bradford and named Carson their starting quarterback.

In Wentz’s first eight games, he threw eight touchdowns, and only five interceptions in 275 attempts.  So his INT/attempt rate was close to Prescott’s who was having a fantastic season as well.  Unfortunately, Carson’s production predictably declined rapidly as the season progressed.  Wentz struggled against the Redskins and Giants all season, and had a disastrous three interception game against the Bengals.

However, some of the interceptions incurred by Wentz were the result of the Philadelphia Eagles receiving corps, who, for the second season in a row, was among the top teams in dropped passes.  Also Carson set the single regular season rookie record for most passing attempts (607), and most passing completions (367).  The passing attempts record was previously held by Peyton Manning.  And Wentz gun-slinging reminds many of us of Brett Favre.  But it’s entirely too early for those types of comparisons.

What we do know for sure, is that Wentz has a complete season under his belt, has the build for a future QB star, and the Eagles are building around him.  Carson will have better weapons to throw to this season, and arguably a better running game.  If Wentz takes another step forward this season, he could be a future top ten quarterback, if not better, and is definitely worth a dynasty consideration at quarterback in all leagues.

Fantasy Football Dynasty Second Year QB Pick: No 1

Kessler had your typical rookie quarterback forced into the starting role on a bad team season.  Wentz had an unusual rise and fall during his rookie season, but maintain a lot of hype heading into his second year.

Dak Prescott had a lightning in a bottle type of season.  Prescott looked polished and controlled during pre-season, but many brushed that off as we see that often in camp.  Until, he did the same thing in the regular season.

The difference between Prescott and Wentz is easy to see, when you look at the passing stats per attempt.  Dak only had 459 attempts his rookie year, nearly 150 less than Carson.  But Prescott completed 68% of his passes, 6% more than Wentz.  Also, while they each had 0.05 sacks per attempt, Dak threw for 8 yards per attempt, the only rookie quarterback to do so, had 0.05 TDs/attempt the highest in our group, and only 0.01 INTs/attempt, the lowest in our group.

Dak was 6th among all fantasy football quarterbacks, in fantasy points his rookie season.  So he’s already a top 10, and potentially top five quarterback heading into the 2017 season.  However, the one big risk we have with Prescott as a fantasy football dynasty pick, is that he currently has one of the best offensive lines around him and a fantastic running game.

If the Cowboys O-line or running game decline over the next few hears, around Dak, we could see some holes in his game.  But in the short-term, he’s a no-brainer keeper at quarterback, even as a starter.

Next: Fantasy Football 2017 WR Rankings

With the first of our four-part Fantasy Football Dynasty Second Year series, we’ll now turn our attention to the running back position. Look for the sophomore RB article soon.  In the meantime, follow us on twitter, @fantasycpr, for updates.