30 teams in 30 days: Los Angeles Clippers offseason preview

The Los Angeles Clippers enter this offseason with huge question marks — their two best players and three of their best four can walk away from the team with no compensation.

They have no control over Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and J.J. Redick in free agency; they’re all unrestricted free agents, free to sign a contract with any team in the league and leave the Clippers with a team centered on Austin Rivers and DeAndre Jordan. The Clippers have just six players under contract and a gargantuan $99.8 million in cap holds, exemplifying just how different their team could look next year:

Paul and Griffin will each command max contracts, starting at $35.4 million and $30.3 million, respectively, either from the Clippers or another team. Paul is the President of the Players Association, which negotiated the new Collective Bargaining Agreement with the league, including a change to the Over-36 rule, extending it to Over-38, which just so happens to allow Paul to sign a massive five-year, $205.03 million contract this summer. Both Paul and Griffin have made themselves comfortable in Los Angeles, raising their families and partaking in the numerous off-court options that only Los Angeles and New York provide, but it’s not impossible to imagine a situation where both decide to move on from the Clippers. Paul will have interest from the San Antonio Spurs, who would have to do quite a bit of cap gymnastics to fit him in, but they’re a real threat if Paul decides that he’s had enough of Los Angeles. Griffin will have multiple suitors with cap space willing to pony up max money for his services.

Redick may be the fourth-best player on the Clippers, but he could be the key to bringing back both Paul and Griffin or breaking up the most successful team in franchise history. Both Paul and Griffin will have very short negotiations; they’ll be offered the max and will either take it from Los Angeles or another team. Redick, on the other hand, is reportedly looking for a contract starting in the $18-20 million range and will force the Clippers to either swallow a large tax bill or risk alienating both Paul and Griffin. Steve Ballmer has some of the deepest pockets in the league, but even he has to have a limit to what he’s willing to shell out for this team, especially as Paul’s prime is behind him and the Clippers will have to contend with the Warriors for at least the next few years. The volatility of the Clippers’ offseason may depend on Redick, who could push Paul and Griffin elsewhere if he decides to leave — they otherwise wouldn’t have the financial flexibility to replace Redick with anything more than the $5.2 million mini mid-level exception, which won’t be nearly enough to bring someone in of Redick’s quality.

Outside of their three big free agents, Luc Mbah a Moute looms as an important loss if the Clippers let him walk in an effort to keep their luxury tax bill under control. Mbah a Moute provides strong wing defense, something the Clippers have lacked in recent seasons, and played well enough offensively last season to firmly hold onto a starting role. Mbah a Moute is more replicable on the open market than Redick and their mini mid-level might be enough to bring in his replacement, but that would leave just minimum contracts to fill out the rest of the team. It would be more prudent for the Clippers, assuming Ballmer will stomach the bill, to re-sign Mbah a Moute and use that mini mid-level to add another depth piece to an incredibly top-heavy team.

Another way to bring back Paul and Griffin without Redick would be a trade — specifically a Carmelo Anthony trade. Rumors have been swirling for a while that Anthony would waive his no-trade clause to come play for the Clippers, with a likely trade package of Rivers and Redick (through a sign-and-trade):

A core of Paul, Griffin, Anthony, and Jordan would certainly make headlines and sell tickets, but how would that foursome perform on the court, especially as Anthony ages and is more suited to play the 4 than in his younger days? Playing the four of them together would leave Los Angeles exposed defensively to quality wing creators (like, say, LeBron James and Kevin Durant), though they would fit well offensively. Anthony, for all his flaws as a Knick, has shown in Team USA play that he’s willing to take a backseat and not be a team’s primary option. Once again, the Clippers would be very shallow behind their big four, but that’s not markedly different than the way things have been the past few years. Another concern: the Clippers would only have one year to make things work, since both Anthony and Jordan will be free agents at the end of the 2017-18 season.

Next: 30 teams in 30 days: Washington Wizards offseason preview

The Clippers have perhaps the highest variance of any team this offseason, as each of their three marquee free agents will affect and elongate the decision-making process of the others, leading to a doomsday scenario where the Clippers are left at the altar with $36 million in cap space but nobody to whom to give it. On the other hand, running it back with this same team for the umpteenth year in a row and paying the heavy luxury tax penalties for a first- or second-round exit doesn’t seem particularly appetizing either, but at least they’d still be able to sell out their building and contend deep into the playoffs if a couple of key pieces of luck go their way.