NBA Draft 2017: 5 best fits for Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum will almost assuredly hear his name called in the first ten picks of the 2017 NBA Draft. Where would he fit best?

The small forward from Duke combines an impressive physical profile with a solid year of production as Duke’s offensive focus, averaging 16.8 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game during his freshman season. He thrives in the mid-range, has great one-on-one scoring ability, and at his ceiling he could be an elite wing scorer with plenty of defensive impact to boot. That’s pretty enticing for teams in the lottery seeking another valuable core piece.

However, Tatum could go anywhere in the top ten picks, as he has some very real limitations that could usurp him on his way to a future of max contracts and scoring titles. He is almost too reliant on mid-range jumpers, and may not be a good enough finisher or 3-point shooter to create overall efficiency. He also struggles with decision-making and doesn’t have the greatest handle, which may limit the areas he’s able to get to in the halfcourt. Defensively, he may not have the lower body strength to deny position to bigger opponents, which may limit him from playing the coveted small-ball four role that almost every 6-foot-9 NBA player has to fill.

This variety of outcomes presents real intrigue in finding his most ideal fit. He’s going to need other scorers around him early on as he figures out his place as an NBA scorer, but will still need opportunities to create for himself and others to be useful. A team with a talented floor-spacing or rim-running big man will help create space while he works to improve his 3-point shot, and it would probably help if his new team was on the slower side of the pace spectrum. And obviously, wing scoring should be a need for this team.

Tatum is slotted to go No. 6 in Chris Stone’s latest mock draft, but he realistically could go anywhere from No. 3 overall to No. 10 or 11 depending on how likely it seems to teams that he’ll reach that ceiling as an elite wing scorer. That presents some interesting options for finding where his best fit could be. Let’s explore where he could land, and where he could best find his way to the All-Star potential he likely has.

5. Orlando Magic (No. 6 overall pick)

The Magic tried to use Jeff Green as a ball-dominant wing scorer, and they’ve been trying to develop Aaron Gordon into that type of player as well. Neither worked this season. Now Green is gone, and Gordon is going to be eligible for an extension, a tough decision given his lack of offensive skill set. Wouldn’t a wing who can give them what Gordon couldn’t, who might be of the same evolutionary ilk as former Frank Vogel project Paul George, be a perfect fit?

This fit makes a lot of sense for Orlando on paper, but it’s one that might be yet another gamble that doesn’t pay off for this team drafting in the top 10. The Magic have not been shy about drafting projects in the post-Dwight era, as guys like Aaron Gordon, Mario Hezonja, and Victor Oladipo were all dice rolls in terms of their potential outcomes. Oladipo became a secondary scorer, but couldn’t cross the barrier to number one option like the Magic hoped. Gordon has become a fantastic dunker and defender, but is still nearly an offensive zero. And Mario Hezonja hasn’t even gotten a shot at seeing the floor.

Could Tatum be different? He would provide wing creation on offense that the team has lacked since Rashard Lewis was in uniform, and Vogel’s a better bet than most to be able to find a use for Tatum’s defensive tools. The fit next to Gordon could work, as long as the Magic eventually find a center who can bridge some of the strengths of Bismack Biyombo and Nikola Vucevic, both of whom are too flawed to be the sole big in small-ball lineups for extended minutes. And while a team built around the Tatum/Gordon tandem will probably always be inefficient offensively, the makings are there for a switchy, swarming defensive squad.

The fit makes some sense, but this is an issue of recent history, and guys with a high variance of outcomes haven’t done well in recent history for Orlando. This team is also fairly desperate to make the playoffs, and probably isn’t interested in turning the keys of the offense over to a 19-year old to allow him to make mistakes. This is probably the most likely landing spot for him, but it’s far from a perfect outcome.