30 teams in 30 days: Utah Jazz offseason preview

You may have heard, but Gordon Hayward will be a free agent this summer. Well, technically he has to opt out of his contract, but that should be a mere formality, as Hayward will almost double his salary for next season and lock in a four- or five-year contract for at least $130 million by doing so.

Hayward will have suitors all over the league, with strong rumors already established with Boston and Miami. Outside of Hayward, the Jazz will have decisions to make on George Hill and Joe Ingles in free agency, as well as the non-guaranteed contract of Boris Diaw. Assuming they move on from Diaw, they’ll have $67.2 million committed in salary for next season:

Rudy Gobert’s four-year, $94 million extension, signed last October, kicks in this summer, briefly making him Utah’s highest-paid player. Gobert took a major step forward this past season, transforming himself from simply the best defensive big man in the league to an all-around monster. The Jazz will pay him $21.2 million next season, about $4 million short of the max contract he would certainly receive if he hadn’t signed the extension, and that $4 million in wiggle room might mean the difference between bringing back someone like Ingles and having to let him walk.

Utah hasn’t paid the tax since the heavier penalties were instituted in the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement (which were put into place in part to curtail superteams. How’d that go?). Will they be willing to pay the tax to keep this team together and continue fighting the uphill battle against the Warriors? Assuming Diaw is waived and Raul Neto is retained, the Jazz begin the offseason $53.8 million from the $121 million luxury tax line. Carve out $30.3 million for Hayward and $18.5 million for Hill, and things get dicey quickly:

Handing out a max contract to Hayward and a three-year, $60 million deal to Hill leaves the Jazz just $5 million from the luxury tax, which won’t be nearly enough to bring back Ingles. It’s possible that the Jazz will venture into the tax for one year, but a more prudent move would be to find a trade partner for Derrick Favors, who has one year and $12 million left on his contract. When healthy, Favors is a bargain at $12 million, but his injury history has to be a real concern for any team looking to acquire him.

Hayward has given every indication that the most important factor in his decision will be playing for a winning team and Utah will have a very strong argument that they’re his best option, regardless of the extra $45 million they can give him. The core of Hayward and Gobert, surrounded by Hill, Favors, and Rodney Hood, has shown already to be good enough to make the second round of the playoffs, and the team still has further to go, with internal development expected from guys like Hood, Alec Burks, Dante Exum, and Trey Lyles.

Boston poses the biggest threat to Utah’s plans, as Hayward would fit seamlessly into a lineup with Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, and Al Horford, but it’s fair to argue whether that team has a better chance at a title in the next four or five years than Utah, even though the Celtics are in the Eastern Conference. If Hayward is looking for another surefire star with whom he can build, Gobert is better and fits with Hayward better than anybody on the Celtics’ current roster. He’s also been linked with Miami in recent days, but that fit makes no sense if Hayward truly holds winning above all other factors.

Hill and Hayward will be tied together; it’s likely that they’ll either come back together or both go their separate ways. Hill and Dennis Lindsey have been very positive in the media about the chances that he returns to Utah, but if Hayward bolts, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Hill move on as well. Hill is the perfect point guard for this Jazz team as a guy who can defend opposing point guards at an elite level and is just as good as a primary ball-handler as he is as a floor spacer. Utah is very democratic with their ball-handling duties, as they have an abundance of players who are capable with the ball in their hands. It creates a beautiful offensive game that requires each guy to be able to shoot and cut without the ball, a skill that isn’t unique to Hill but is rare among point guards. Hill’s baseline contract will start in the $18-20 million range; a three-year, $60 million contract seems fair for someone who’s a little older but still a very solid point guard.

Ingles has also said that he would like to come back to Utah, but the numbers game could be tough for Utah if they’re adamant about staying out of the tax. He broke out on both ends last season as a knockdown shooter and reliable defender, capable of switching 1 through 4 when necessary; the Jazz even put him as the primary defender of Chris Paul down the stretch of several games in their first-round matchup with the Clippers. Ingles is expected to receive offer sheets as high as $10 million per season, which would push Utah into the tax with Hayward and Hill in the fold as well, before taking into account their first-round draft pick and any minimum contracts they sign to fill out the rest of the team.

Next: 30 teams in 30 days: Los Angeles Clippers offseason preview

The Jazz have built a great foundation of young, affordable players, but it all falls apart if Hayward decides to move on from the only team he’s ever known. Utah could work about $25 million in cap space if Hayward and Hill sign for other teams, which wouldn’t be enough to bring in like-for-like replacements, but the Jazz could use that space for a quick retool to center the team around Gobert until they land another star of Hayward’s quality.