Following up on our Fantasy Football Dynasty second year running back article, we’ll review the top 2016 rookie wide receivers for your dynasty/keeper leagues. Grabbing the right rookie wide receiver from last season for your Fantasy Football Dynasty league, can land you a fantasy football championship for several years.
Last year, the top two second year wide receivers were Amari Cooper and Stefon Diggs. Cooper had the most yards, 1,153 and five touchdowns, consistent with his outstanding rookie season. Amari likely will have a bigger year this season, if a healthy Carr continues to progress and as the Raiders build around their new offensive weapons.
Diggs is a more classic case of a second year wide receiver. After 52 receptions, 720 yards, and four touchdowns, Stefon emerged with the most receptions among second year receivers, 84 (112 targets), 903 yards, but only three touchdowns. Still, Diggs also held onto the ball better, not fumbling once all season compared to his two during the rookie year.
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Grabbing a second year receiver meeting Diggs’ or Cooper’s case would be ideal, but is challenging. Several of the rookies last year have had drastic changes to their teams over the offseason. So it’s hard to tell if they’ll get the chance to continue to grow. The New York Giants, for example, now have so many offensive weapons for Manning to target, you’d have to suspect each receiver’s targets and receptions may decline as he spreads the ball around the field.
So, who are the top five 2016 rookie wide receivers you should consider for this year’s fantasy football dynasty draft? Let’s start with number five…
Fantasy Football Dynasty Second Year WR Pick: No 5
While there are receivers, like Tyler Boyd, who had better rookie campaigns than Will Fuller, several second year WR’s are likely to take a step back this season due to changes on their team’s roster. Boyd is a great example. As we discussed in our Rookie Wide Receiver article, John Ross has a chance to see more targets than Boyd this season, and that will create a big hit to Boyd’s fantasy football dynasty value. So while Tyler is a top ten WR option on this list, he doesn’t make it to number five.
Fuller, on the other hand, is WR2 on the Houston Texans again this season, and may have a better signal caller under center as the season progresses. Will is a 6′ 180 pound wide-out from the Philadelphia area, who played for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in college and was drafted 21st overall in the 2016 NFL draft.
Entering last season, Will had a lot of hype surrounding him, as NFL analysts had Fuller listed as one of the top receivers coming out of college. But the Texans passing game struggled with poor performance under center. While Fuller had some brilliant games, he finished the season with only 47 receptions on 92 targets, not a great reception ratio. Will had 635 yards and only two touchdowns, disappointing many fantasy football dynasty owners.
But the Texans made several changes on their depth chart at quarterback during the offseason. Currently, Tom Savage is listed as the starter. The Texans could push 12th overall pick of the 2017 draft, DeShaun Watson, to develop quicker if Savage doesn’t perform well this season. Regardless, I expect to see better play at the QB position for the Texans, and Fuller’s receptions should improve with another 100 or so targets in 2017.
Fantasy Football Dynasty Second Year WR Pick: No 4
Prior to the 2017 NFL draft, I would’ve considered Sterling Shepard a top three second year WR for fantasy football dynasty leagues. And Shepard is still a solid dynasty league option. But the Giants loaded up their receiving talent during the offseason, and Shepard’s targets will likely drop from the 105 he saw last season.
Picked later in the 2nd round, well after Fuller, the Giants may have a steal on their hands. Sterling had a fantastic rookie season, playing opposite to Beckham, who gets most of the defensive back attention each game.
Shepard had 65 receptions last season, catching around 60% of his targets. That ratio should climb, but the Giants already brought in outstanding veteran Brandon Marshall and drafted one of the best receiving tight ends in the 2017 draft. So it’s very likely Shepard sees less targets from Manning.
Still, it’s hard to ignore Shepard’s rookie season production, 683 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. So even with a drop in targets for a season or two, stash Shepard on your bench, and start him if Marshall or Beckham take a few games off this year.
Fantasy Football Dynasty Second Year WR Pick: No 3
The Baylor Bears dynamic receiver Corey Coleman was drafted 15th overall in last year’s NFL draft, by the Cleveland Browns. It was expected the Browns would plug Coleman into the top receiving spot immediately. Unfortunately, Coleman had a disappointing year, and he is a boom or bust candidate this season.
After starting the 2016 season with over 170 yards, ten receptions, and two touchdowns in the Browns first two games, Corey’s rookie season nose-dived. Coleman broke his hand before Cleveland’s third game, and when he returned, he looked like a different, hesitant, receiver.
Corey finished the season with only a horrendous 33 receptions on 73 targets, snagging only 45% of his targets. Coleman also had 413 yards and three total touchdowns, getting only one more touchdown in the remaining eight games he played in 2016.
So we do we have Coleman third on our list? The Browns appear to be building a lot of young talent on their offense, and could be very underrated this season. As we discussed in our Second Year QB article, Kessler quietly looked great under center last season.
If Kessler can stay healthy, and the Browns can improve their run game, as expected, Coleman will have less pressure to develop as the Browns top receiver, and Coleman has the type of ceiling that could make him a top five wide receiver within the next couple of years. Buy Coleman now while he’s cheap!
Fantasy Football Dynasty Second Year WR Pick: No 2
Speaking of underrated, Tyreek Hill was drafted in the fifth round of the 2016 NFL draft by the Kansas City Chiefs last season, and wasn’t much of a fantasy football target until after week six of the 2016 season.
Likely due to the poor production from Jeremy Maclin, Hill began to see more targets through the rest of the season, after week six. And unlike our last three receivers we discussed, Hill grabbed the vast majority of his 83 targets, for 61 receptions.
Tyreek ended the season with almost 600 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Not bad production. But what makes Hill even more attractive as a fantasy football dynasty owner, is that Hill 24 carries for 267 rushing yards and three more touchdowns.
Hill is the sweep or direct snap option for Reid’s offense, especially in the red zone. With his speed, Reid will continue to utilize Tyreek to spread the ball around the field, and around the red zone. Hill could see close to ten touchdowns per season, even if he doesn’t have over 1,000 receiving yards.
With Maclin no longer the top dog on the receiving corps for the Chiefs, Hill’s ADP is rapidly climbing, so he’s also fantastic trade bait. If you have Tyreek on your roster, keep him.
Fantasy Football Dynasty Second Year WR Pick: No 1
While developing the top five wide receiver list among second year players was admittedly difficult, the top option wasn’t a hard choice. The New Orleans Saints drafted Michael Thomas in the second round of the 2017 NFL draft out of Ohio State. Like Prescott at quarterback and Elliott at running back, the 6′ 3” 210+ pound wide receiver immediately made an impact on the NFL
In his first NFL game, Michael snagged all six of his targets against the Raiders, totaling 58 yards. In fact, Michael grabbed ten of his first eleven targets. With such sure hands, Brees continued to target Thomas all season, and by game three, he was in the end zone for the first of nine receiving touchdowns in 2016.
Thomas had three 100-yard games last season, including a ten reception and 156 yard game against the Falcons to end the season. Michael also had a couple of two-touchdown games as well. Ending the season with 1,137 receiving yards, Thomas was 9th in the NFL, a fantastic start to his NFL career. If Thomas can perform better than he did last season, he could be a top five receiver already. Keeping Michael is a no-brainer if he’s on your team.
Next: Fantasy Football Dynasty Rookie Top 20
With the third of our four-part Fantasy Football Dynasty Second Year series, we’ll now turn our attention to the tight end position. Look for the sophomore TE article soon. In the meantime, follow us on twitter, @fantasycpr, for updates.