Was Game 4 a fluke or have the Cavaliers figured the Warriors out?

What the Cavaliers accomplished offensively in Game 4 was unheard of in basketball history. In lighting up the Warriors’ top-ranked playoff defense for 137 points (sixth-most in a Finals game, ever), Cleveland did the following:

Set a Finals record for most points in a quarter, with 49 in the first;
Set a Finals record for most points in a half, with 86 in the first half;
Set a Finals record for 3-pointers made in a game, with 24;
Recorded the second-highest effective field goal percentage (66.7 percent) in a Finals game since 1984, which is as far back as Basketball-Reference’s database reaches; and
Recorded the highest offensive rating in a Finals game since 1984, scoring 142.6 points per 100 possessions.

At the risk of brushing aside one of the greatest offensive performances in the history of basketball, none of that matters anymore. All that matters is which parts of it — if any — are replicable; because let’s be honest, they have not exactly found any answers for defending the Warriors’ offense during this series (and let’s just say they’re not likely to get another game where Draymond Green attempts more shots than both Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson like they did on Friday, either). So if the Cavaliers want to come away with a win in Game 5, they’re going to have to light up the scoreboard again.

The first thing that jumps out, obviously, is all those 3s. Can the Cavaliers hit 24 again? Almost definitely not. It had never been done in the history of the Finals until Friday evening, so we know it’s extremely unlikely to happen again. What they can do, though, is keep firing away from outside as often as possible.

The Cavaliers launched from deep 45 times in Game 4, becoming the first team ever to take more 3s than 2s in a Finals game in the process. That’s not necessarily ideal shot distribution in a normal game, but the Warriors are not a normal opponent. Do the Cavaliers need the same kind of three-to-two distribution again? No. But look at their shot chart from the game:

The Cavaliers took only 12 shots from outside the paint and inside the 3-point line, and 67 of their 87 attempts came from either inside the restricted area or outside the arc. They’re probably not going to be able to shoot quite as well from deep ever again, but maintaining a similar shot distribution will help tip the offensive odds in their favor.

And while they’re unlikely to make over 50 percent of their 3-point tries in Game 5, they can at least get themselves into the 40s if they continue to generate as many open looks as they did in Game 4. At that point, it comes down to actually capitalizing on those open opportunities. Game 4 was the first time the Cavaliers connected on open shots with any level of regularity. It’s probably no coincidence their best shooting game of the series also came in the game that featured their best ball movement of the series.

Game	Pass/Poss	cFGA	cFGM	cFG%	ucFGA	ucFGM	ucFG%
1	2.46	16	48	33.3%	14	38	36.8%
2	2.52	27	59	45.8%	18	41	43.9%
3	2.62	24	44	54.5%	16	46	34.8%
1-3	2.53	67	151	44.4%	48	125	38.4%
4	2.86	20	43	46.5%	26	44	59.1%

Note: cFGA = contested field goal attempts; ucFGA = uncontested field goal attempts

Can the Cavaliers keep whipping the ball around and forcing the Warriors into uncomfortable rotations as they did for most of Game 4? Who knows.

They’d had stretches of good ball movement and good shooting during the previous three games of the series (they were shooting 49.3 percent from the field and 45.5 percent from 3-point range during first quarters in this series before their 49-point outburst), but they were never able to sustain it for quite as long as they did in their Game 4 victory. Was that the result of the Cleveland crowd pushing them on? Was it due to the fact that they came out so scorching hot? Did they find some crease in the Golden State defense that had previously been near-impenetrable? We’ll probably find out fairly early in Game 5.

Apart from shooting, the most important thing the Cavaliers need to carry over from Game 4 to Game 5 if they want to extend the series is the performance of Tristan Thompson. Thompson was practically invisible during the first three games, but he showed up in full force on both ends of the floor in the series-extending win. His 10 rebounds were one fewer than he had in the first three games combined, and they actually understate his impact on the game.

He made his physicality felt every trip down the floor — he bumped cutters, grabbed onto off-ball defenders in a way the refs couldn’t quite see, set and held screens to ensure Curry and Thompson and the other perimeter defenders felt him on their way around, etc. That Tristan Thompson is the one that was arguably the third-most important player on last year’s championship squad. They need him back again, full-time.

Beyond that, it’s mostly going to come down to playing the right guys and minimizing the amount of time LeBron James has to sit. The Cavaliers are actually plus-6 in the 166 minutes LeBron’s been on the floor during the Finals, per NBA.com. The problem is they’re minus-31 in 26 minutes with him on the bench. It’s time to mothball Deron Williams for good, even though he hit a ridiculous shot last game. Whichever of J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, Kyle Korver and Richard Jefferson actually brings it on defense and/or knocks down shots should see the floor, and the other guys should take a seat. There is no margin for error, especially on the road.

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Even if they do all this — if they move the ball, if they make their open shots, if Tristan shows up, if they minimize LeBron’s rest, if they play all the right lineups — it still might not be enough. They still likely have to find a way to throw some sort of kink into the Warriors’ offensive game-plan. They haven’t been able to do it with any sort of consistency so far. It’s tough to see it happening in Game 5, but this group has done the seemingly impossible before.

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