30 teams in 30 days: Houston Rockets offseason preview
By Jeff Siegel
Led by MVP candidate James Harden, the Houston Rockets completely turned around their franchise last season. They brought in Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Nene, and Lou Williams (at the trade deadline) to surround Harden with as much shooting as possible in an attempt to recreate new head coach Mike D’Antoni’s run-and-gun Suns teams of the mid-2000s. It worked—the Rockets were the second-best offensive team in the league last year as multiple players had career years under D’Antoni’s tutelage. Houston will have to find a little more balance between offense and defense to launch themselves ahead of San Antonio and Cleveland and into the stratosphere with Golden State, but they’re firmly in the second tier of the league and a few tweaks could push them over the top.
The Rockets start their summer with no first-round draft picks but will look to add 2016 second-round pick Zhou Qi to their roster, if he’s able to hold up in workouts with the team this summer. As things stand, the Rockets are straddling the cap with their current cap holds:
Houston begins just $7.7 million over the cap, functioning as an over-the-cap team due to their mid-level exception. The Rockets technically could get to $4 million in space if they were to renounce their mid-level exception, but doing so wouldn’t help them, as the mid-level exception allows them to spend up to $8.4 million and can be split among multiple players.
Of their incumbent free agents, Nene has the most value, even in a bloated backup center market. He played very well for the Rockets in 2016-17 on a value contract, so it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to retain him via his non-Bird rights, which only allow them to pay him up to $3.5 million for next season before dipping into their cap space. If Nene is back in Houston, look for them to use part of their mid-level exception to re-sign him.
The more interesting scenario with Houston has to do with trading their players currently under contract. Gordon, Anderson, and Williams all had better-than-expected seasons in a Rockets uniform and Houston may want to capitalize on their value to ship them to a team desperate for the offensive firepower they provide. By trading Anderson and Williams, the Rockets can carve out a max slot for a big free agent—Paul Millsap and Blake Griffin come to mind as potential upgrades for Anderson at the 4. Houston would miss Anderson’s shooting, but the defensive uptick from him to either of these marquee free agents would be well worth the potential downside.
Millsap fits better into what the Rockets want to accomplish next season, but comes with a higher price tag and is older than Griffin. In the scenario above, Houston would be able to bring in Griffin and keep Nene’s cap hold on their books; perhaps Griffin’s arrival would entice Nene to take a smaller contract to run it back with this team. Getting Millsap would require the Rockets to renounce Nene, but filling his role would be doable, either from within or without.
Whether they land a big fish or not, trading one of the Anderson, Gordon, and Williams trio could still benefit the Rockets tremendously. There’s a real ceiling to how good a team’s defense can be with Anderson starting at the 4 and his value is as high as it will ever be, just one year into a four-year, $80 million contract signed last summer. Moving him to a team who could use his shooting prowess in exchange for either future draft picks or a 3-and-D wing would make the Rockets more well-rounded.
Outside of Trevor Ariza, the Rockets don’t have an above-average wing defender on the roster, and though Sam Dekker may eventually grow into that role, Daryl Morey and his staff have to be looking around the league for a defensive partner and ultimate replacement for Ariza. Whether they trade Anderson and open up massive cap space or not, they’ll have the mid-level exception to bring in another defensive force. Free agent targets for the Rockets could include Thabo Sefolosha, Luc Mbah a Moute, James Johnson, Justin Holiday, Jonathon Simmons, and P.J. Tucker, for varying levels of 3-and-D-ness.
Next: 30 teams in 30 days: Brooklyn Nets offseason preview
The Rockets have the most important component to a championship team: an absolute superstar. They built a team specifically designed to bring out the best in Harden offensively last season, but when the going got tough in the later rounds of the playoffs, the Rockets’ defense wasn’t able to keep up. Houston will have to address the defensive side of the ball in free agency and thanks to Morey’s propensity for giving out great contracts, they’ll have the flexibility to do so, whether they go after one big fish to pair with Harden or reel in a handful of smaller ones to add to their team’s depth.