DraftKings U.S. Open DFS Preview

DraftKings U.S. Open DFS Preview

After a long layoff from a thrilling 2017 Masters, we will now head to Erin, Wisconsin, for this year’s U.S. Open. Erin Hills is the host course this year, and will play at roughly 7812 yards and a par 72. This is one of the longest courses that golfers will face this year, and players that can hit the long ball should be rewarded. Erin Hills also features much wider fairways, which should favor long hitters. However, those that fail to find the fairway will be in a heap of trouble, as some of the secondary rough appears to be as close to unplayable, as you’ll find.

That being said, will we want to target golfers that can take advantage of their length? Yes, but accuracy shouldn’t be pushed to the wayside.

If you’re a fan of using course history, you’ll be out of luck this week, as the only data set we have to pull from is a U.S. Amateur tournament back in 2011. The most notable names to compete were: Spieth, Uihlein, DeChambeau, Henley, Thomas, English, and Randolph.

Quick Course Notes:

• Four par 5’s
• Shaved greens will allow golfers to putt from off of the greens
• Bent Grass greens
• Very little tree lining, therefore wind could play more of a factor

This week’s field will feature over 150 golfers, with only 60 golfers making the cut. Getting all six golfers through the cut will be difficult, but necessary to take down a GPP on DraftKings. As always with golf majors, DraftKings pumps out more advertising and attracts more novice players, than any other normal PGA week. Expect well known, or big name, golfers to carry slightly more ownership than projected. As always, I’ll be basing my player selections off of multiple data sources. Some of the key stats that I’ll be targeting include: driving distance, GIR, birdie scoring, recent form, Vegas odds, adjusted round score, and strokes gained tee to green.

UPDATE: This was tweeted out Tuesday morning. I’d keep an eye on this as we get closer to Thursday.

http://twitter.com/PeterUihlein/status/874652421535956994

Recent Form:

Alexander Noren – $7500

The Swede, Alexander Noren, has been playing excellent golf ever since failing to make the cut at the Masters. While Noren hasn’t proven he can be a force on U.S. soil, his recent performances are nothing to ignore. Since the Masters, he’s had a 31st at Wells Fargo, a 10th at the Players, a win at the BMW Championship, and a 15th at the Noreda Masters. Noren is an extremely well rounded golfer who may have right combination of distance and accuracy to fare well this weekend.

Kevin Kisner – $ 7500

Kevin Kisner is coming off of two phenomenal outings, at the Dean Deluca Invitational and at Memorial. Kisner grabbed a win at the former and a 6th place finish at the later. These recent performances wont go unnoticed. I’m projecting Kisner to be one of the highest owned golfers in this price range. In addition to his current form, he’s also extremely underpriced given his Vegas implied odds. Kisner has an implied win percentage of 2%, one of the highest in the mid $7000 range.

Others in good recent form: Berger, Tanihara, Day, Stenson, Lowery, Thomas, Grace, Molinari, Lovemark, Rose, Fisher, An, McDowell

Underpriced Golfers Based on Vegas Odds:

Thomas Pieters – $7700

If you don’t know the name Thomas Pieters, get used to it. Pieters is one of the rising European stars that has a legitimate shot to be a top five player in the world. This week, at $7700, he’s an absolute steal given his Vegas implied odds percentage of 2.2%. This is considerably higher than any golfer priced around him. Pieters has the length off of the tee to compete here, and I fully expect him to, as long as he can find the fairway. While only being 25 years old, Pieters has proven his ability to excel on the big stage. Pieters was a star for the Europeans in the most recent Ryder Cup, and recorded a 4th place finish at this years Masters.

Justin Thomas – $8300

Justin Thomas kicked off the 2017 season impressively well, recording back to back wins at the Tournament of Champions and the Sony Open. Up and down play came to follow, and Thomas’ price on DraftKings is indicative of that inconsistency. After missing the cut at The Players, Thomas bounced back with a 4th place finish at Memorial, and I tend to think that he’ll carry that play into this week. At only $8300, Thomas has a Vegas implied chance to win of 2.9%. The next best percentage doesn’t show up until Adam Scott at $8800. Thomas is a legitimate threat to win, given his proven history this year and his driving distance. Thomas has a course and field adjusted driving distance of 302.2 yards this year. This distance provides him with access to numerous birdie opportunities which are essential on DraftKings. Thomas has averaged 14.5 course and field adjusted birdies per round over the last six weeks.

Other underpriced golfers: Rahm, Scott, Leishman, An, Kaymer, Molinari, Oosthuizen, Noren, Kisner, Kuchar

Putters Due to Positively Regress:

Branden Grace – $8600

Branden Grace may end up as one of my higher owned golfers in tournaments this weekend, as he’s shown solid recent form. Grace hasn’t missed a cut since March and is coming off of a 9th place finish at the BMW Championship. Grace isn’t known for his putting, however of late, he’s putted noticeably worse, averaging 31 course and field adjusted putts per round. This is up 1.6 higher than his yearly average of 29.4 putts per round. On a macro level, putting generally tends to be predictable. Overall, we have a good idea of who can make up ground on the greens and who can’t. However, in a micro, week by week level, putting tends to hold a lot of variance. I’m inclined to believe that Grace has hit a tough string of putting variance and should be due to positively regress.

Putters to positively regress: Ikeda, Johnson, Summerhays

Golfers Receiving Price Drops:

Francesco Molinari – $7000

You may have noticed Molinari’s name popping up in some of the categories previously listed and you’ll now see why he’s one of my favorite plays this week. If you only want to play bombers due to the course length, Molinari isn’t the guy for you. However, Molinari consistently finds ways to play well given the lack of length off of the tee. He’s one of the most accurate golfers on tour, hitting 67.9 % of fairways this year, so if you’re fearful of the ominous rough, consider Molinari. At only $7000, he’s extremely cheap, considering that he’s been priced as high as $10,500 in the past. Obviously those were weaker fields, but he even offers value relative to his odds (1.2% chance to win). Molinari has a lot of factors going for him this week, and offers attractive salary relief at only $7000.

Bernd Wiesberger – $7100

Don’t expect Bernd Wiesberger to go out an win you a U.S. Open, but you can expect Wiesberger to give you a great shot to make the cut. Wiesberger is a cut making grinder and has yet to miss a cut this year. Wiesberger offers a solid all around game, including a safe combination of distance and accuracy. He actually ranks as one of the best in the field in GIR. For the year he has a GIR percentage of 71.8%, which will be crucial this week at Erin Hills.

Other receiving price drops: Oosthuizen, Noren, Fitzpatrick, Hatton, Kisner, Stenson, Kaymer, Fisher, An, Scott, McDowell

Next: Top Five Sophomore WR In 2017

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