FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – June 19
Welcome to the Monday Day FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Sunday’s Main winning GPP scores were right above our season average as it took 272.1 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 82 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 262.5 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 82 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 262.5 points.
Sunday’s Main Slate winning tournament teams came down to two dominant individual performances that were consistently at the top of the leader board. Jimmy Nelson struck out 10 Padres in a complete game 64 FanDuel point outing while Edwin Encarnacion blasted two home runs and dropped 50.9 FanDuel points. The biggest takeaway from Sunday’s games were that the winning rosters were less reliant on stacks and built around more one-off plays which was the key as there was really not one offense that “went off” for a big DFS day!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB: Top Starting Pitcher Pick:
Brad Peacock ($7,200): Yes I know Clayton Kershaw is on the mound at home as a massive -315 favorite and the Mets have a 2.27 implied team total but how many times this season have we seen the high-priced ace in the can’t miss spot let down DFS players!
I am not going to argue the merits of playing Kershaw tonight but I think with significant weather concerns in Baltimore tonight where Corey Kluber is pitching, we could see all the “high-priced pitcher” rosters pivot all their ownership towards Kershaw so this is a pure game theory play.
If you look over the advanced stats for all of today’s starting pitchers there are three pitchers at the top when it comes to strike out rate and swinging strike rate. We have already mentioned Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber but would you have guessed Brad Peacock is the third member of that club?
On the season, Peacock has a 35.6% K rate which is the highest of any of the pitchers on today’s slate and has a 13.6% swinging strike rate which is second only to Mr. Kluber. Peacock has had to pitch on short rest in each of his last two turns but is back on a regular schedule against a Oakland A’s team that has the 4th highest K rate in baseball versus right-handed pitching!
Peacock has shown in his limited starts that he has massive K upside racking up 8 or more K’s in four of his five outings as a starter. Even though Peacock has struggled with walks (13% rate this season) he has an amazing ability to limit home runs with an incredible 3.6% HR/FB rate and now gets to pitch in Oakland’s massive ballpark!
Peacock is the clear tournament pivot for me but I do think we need to keep an eye on the industry buzz throughout the day as I expect he could become a trendy pick and the “we don’t need Kershaw” salary saving GPP option. If the ownership projections get to dangerous levels then I think we can make the case to jump away but the fact we can pay $3,500 per bat in a Peacock based roster makes him my favorite GPP play today!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
Seattle Mariners against Anibal Sanchez: As soon as I saw that the Tigers were calling up Sanchez from AAA I knew this was the spot I wanted to target and the Mariners bats are priced so reasonably that we can easily stack the 1-4 in this order!
Sanchez this season is giving up 3.9 HR/9 and a 46.7% hard contact rate this season after giving up 32% hard contact and 1.9 HR/9 last season. The reality is this is a pitcher on the absolute down side of his career and although the Mariners only have the third highest implied run total, they have the greatest ability in my mind to explode for a massive offensive day.
All of the usual suspects are in play here but do not make the mistake of over-looking the reverse splits nature of Sanchez who is giving up 55% hard contact and 4.9 HR/9 to RHB this season after giving up 35% and 2.3 HR/9 to right-handers last season!
Nelson Cruz ($4,100) and Mitch Haniger ($3,500) get the righty/righty advantage here but you can build a full 1-4 stack with Ben Gamel ($3,200) and Robinson Cano ($3,300) who remain fairly priced across the industry!
Brewers versus Gerrit Cole: Milwaukee was a popular target over the weekend but were predictably shut down by Luis Perdomo‘s elite ground ball skills yesterday. Today however they get to face off in Miller Park with Gerrit Cole who has been mashed all season by left-handed bats!
This year Cole has a 2.2 HR/9 mark against LHB and is giving up 41.4% hard contact and will have to deal with the resurgent power of Eric Thames ($3,800) and Travis Shaw ($3,600) who get the added benefit of playing in their home ball park. I love the two-man stack as an addition to a full on Mariners stack and I expect this will make up the core of my lineups across tonight’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Brad Peacock ($7,200)
C: $2k Punt Option
1B: Eric Thames ($3,800)
2B: Robinson Cano ($3,300)
3B: Travis Shaw ($3,600)
SS: Trea Turner ($4,300)
OF: Nelson Cruz ($4,100)
OF: Mitch Haniger ($3,500)
OF: Ben Gamel ($3,200)
Slate Overview: The overwhelming story on this slate is whether or not you intend to pay up for Clayton Kershaw at home versus the Mets. The upside is clearly there with Kershaw any time he takes the hill but he only allows you $2,800 per batter and there is simply not enough high upside value offensively that makes this a route I am likely to go. Peacock comes with a ton of risk but also has massive potential and the salary is such that you can essentially pick and choose whichever stud bats you want! Keep an eye on ownership buzz during the day as if Peacock’s GPP appeal starts to take over we may want to scale back our exposure from a game theory perspective!