A week without baseball, the AL Wild Card race is tight, the NL Wild Card race is over, plus Cody Bellinger, MLB power rankings and more.
Forgive me reader, for I have sinned: It’s been seven days since my last baseball game.
As someone who spends the majority of my working hours writing about baseball, that’s not a good thing. However, I wasn’t working during the last seven days. I was sitting on the beach or by the pool, or standing in the buffet line in The Bahamas.
Cell service was spotty. I checked Twitter a few times a day for updates, but cricket was the sport of choice on the television sets in the hotel bar and the U.S. Open and Confederations Cup garnered the interest in the sports book.
As a result, I missed just about everything in the baseball world for a full week. Fortunately, with the benefit of a working Internet connection, a six-hour delay in Ft. Lauderdale, and the recaps available through MLB.tv, I’ve been able to catch up.
I missed Nolan Arenado doing something that had never been done before. I missed Jose Ramirez’s 19 hits in eight games. I missed Cody Bellinger’s six homers and Dee Gordon’s six stolen bases over that same time period. I also missed 2017 Corey Kluber (and somebody named Jacob Faria) pitching like 2014 AL Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber.
I missed the Yankees losing six games in a row (and losing top prospect Gleyber Torres to Tommy John), the Indians winning just as many games and the Diamondbacks winning more. Also, apparently, the Royals are back from the dead.
What a week it was.
Three things we learned this week
1. Every American League team is still in it
As we enter the final full week in June, two things are clear: the Houston Astros – owners of the best record in baseball and an MLB best 12-game division lead – are the only American League team guaranteed a postseason spot, and no AL club is out of the mix.
A quick glance at the standings shows the AL East and AL West separated by just five and six games, respectively, from first place to last place. Looking at the Wild Card standings, no team is more than 4.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot. Seven teams are within 1.5 games of a playoff position.
At 31-39, the Oakland A’s have the worst record in the AL. Of course, the A’s have been terrific at home (22-14) and just swept the Yankees in four games at the Coliseum. The second worst club, the rebuilding Chicago White Sox, is 31-37, but has a positive run differential (plus-4). If either can get hot on the road (the teams are tied for the AL lead with 25 losses away from home), and make some smart moves at the trade deadline, a Wild Card spot is a distinct possibility.
2. The NL Wild Card Race is over
On the other hand, every National League team on the outside looking in in the Wild Card race is at least 8.5 games back. The Diamondbacks, Rockies and Dodgers have been dominant while jockeying for position in the NL West, and the trio has left everyone else in the dust. We don’t yet know which will win the division (though the Dodgers are a good bet), but according to the most recent Playoff Odds Report at Baseball Prospectus, all three have at least an 89.6 percent chance of making the postseason. Effectively, the Wild Card race is over.
Elsewhere, the Cubs are still alive in the NL Central, and the club actually has a 66.4 percent of making the postseason by BP’s calculations, compared to 26.3 percent for the first-place Brewers and 10.4 percent for the Cardinals. FanGraphs expects Chicago to finish 88-74, atop the division, while the Brewers (and every other NL club) are expected to finish under .500 for the season.
It’s hard to imagine, but with the D-Backs and Rockies off to such a strong start, the Cubs only chance at earning a postseason spot and defending their World Series title appears to be winning the Central.
3. Cody Bellinger is so hot right now
Yankees slugger Aaron Judge has been the talk of the season, and rightfully so. The 6-foot-7 rookie right fielder leads all of baseball with 4.4 Wins Above Replacement according to FanGraphs, nearly a full run ahead of No. 2 Paul Goldschmidt among qualified players. As of Tuesday, Judge led the major leagues in home runs (23), runs scored (60), OBP (.445), slugging (.699), OPS (1.144), wOBA (.468), wRC+ (199) and ISO (.364).
However, Judge isn’t the only rookie that’s impressed at the plate. Dodgers first baseman/left fielder Cody Bellinger hit two home runs Monday, which pushed his total to 21 since he made his major league debut April 25 – a period of 51 games. That made Bellinger the fastest player in MLB history to 21 career homers, passing Wally Berger and Gary Sanchez. Bellinger joined Albert Pujols as the only players in MLB history to hit 20 homers in the first half of his MLB rookie season before turning 2 years old.
Overall, Bellinger has hit .269/.340/.658 overall, with 10 doubles, one triple, 39 runs scored, 47 RBI and four stolen bases, though he has been one of the hottest hitters in the major leagues recently, hitting nine homers over his last nine games. The 21-year-old has hit .375/.419/1.125 in 43 plate appearances over that span. He currently ranks No. 16 in the NL in fWAR (2.1), and, like Judge, could insert himself into the MVP conversation this summer.
Quotable
"“I lived with several Latinos that did not speak English, so we adapted little by little. We started by ordering food at McDonald’s or at Subway after the game. What helped me was pointing at a photo [of food], saying something as if I were murmuring, letting them answer me and saying ‘yes.’ But I didn’t know what they were going to give me. Whatever came, I tried to eat it. I went hungry a lot because I’ve always hated pickles. A lot of times the food at McDonald’s came with a lot of pickles, and when I ordered I’d grab the food, go to the hotel, sit down to eat and open it to find pickles. I’d immediately throw it in the trash.’’"
–Adrián Beltré, in the Beisbol Experience MLB 50-man interview on ESPN.com
Living in Puerto Rico, I have the inverse problem. Also, pickles are the worst. ESPN’s expansive interview with 50 MLB players from Latin American countries, on the other hand, is quite good. Stars like Beltre, Hanley Ramirez, Felix Hernandez, Miguel Cabrera and Nelson Cruz cover a wide range of topics, including learning English, dealing with money, ballpark culture and family. It’s worth a read.
Play of the Week
With the Rockies trailing 5-4 in the bottom of the ninth inning Sunday against the Giants, Nolan Arenado hit a walk-off, three-run home run, which made him the first MLB player ever to complete a cycle with a walk-off, come-from-behind homer. Only five players in big league history have hit a walk-off homer to complete a cycle. The last player to do it was Arenado’s Rockies teammate Carlos Gonzalez in 2010.
Also of note, Cubs top prospect Eloy Jimenez hit a home run that hit the light tower well beyond the left field fence during the Carolina League Home Run Derby Monday.
League Leaders
Baseball Prospectus has done an outstanding job over the years developing statistics designed to help baseball fans and analysts better understand the game. Over time, BP has boiled down countless data points into its core offensive metric: True Average (TAv), which tries to quantify every aspect of a player’s offensive performance and present it in an easy to understand number like batting average. Read more about True Average here.
TAv (minimum 150 plate appearances)
- Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves (.403)
- Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (.386)
- Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers (.372)
- Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants (.363)
- Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (.360)
Freddie Freeman, Mike Trout and Justin Turner all coupled hot starts with time on the disabled list to maintain their spots in the top three in TAv this season. NL batting leader Buster Posey and MVP candidate Aaron Judge are not far behind, and Joey Votto (.354), Ryan Zimmerman (.346) and Paul Goldschmidt (.345) are closing in.
Similarly, Baseball Prospectus developed advanced statistics to gauge a pitcher’s overall effectiveness, Deserved Run Average (DRA), which has recently become the site’s core pitching metric. Like Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), DRA attempts to shine a light on how well a pitcher actually pitches, not simply how many earned runs he allows, as ERA does. Read more about DRA here.
DRA (minimum 10 innings pitched)
- Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox (1.47)
- Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers (1.52)
- Tommy Kahnle, Chicago White Sox (1.56)
- Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox (1.61)
- Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros (1.64)
As closers, Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen have an uphill climb ahead of them if they want to enter the conservation for the AL and NL Cy Young Awards, respectively. However, it’s clear both have been among the most dominant pitchers in baseball this season.
But many fans might be surprised to see White Sox middle reliever Tommy Kahnle to the listed among the best pitchers in baseball in terms of DRA. Kahnle will be a name to watch at the trade deadline, as he’s likely to garner a lot of interest from contenders. Of course, Chicago may see him as a future closer given the company he keeps.
Random MLB Power Rankings: Top 10 rookies
- Aaron Judge, RF, New York Yankees
- Cody Bellinger, LF/1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Jeff Hoffman, SP, Colorado Rockies
- Kyle Freeland, SP, Colorado Rockies
- Trey Mancini, 1B/LF, Baltimore Orioles
- Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox
- Ben Gamel, OF, Seattle Mariners
- Matt Davidson, 3B, Chicago White Sox
- Manny Pina, C, Milwaukee Brewers
- Jordan Montgomery, SP, New York Yankees
The Rookie of the Year races look a lot different today than they did at the beginning of the season. Red Sox rookie Andrew Benintendi was the overwhelming favorite to win the award on Opening Day, but Aaron Judge is the current favorite in the MVP race, so…
In the National League, San Diego centerfielder Manuel Margot entered the season with the inside track to Rookie of the Year honors, but he currently ranks in a five-way tie for eighth among NL rookie position players in fWAR (0.4), behind new runaway favorite Cody Bellinger (2.1).
Brewers rookie catcher Manny Pina (1.3) actually ranks second among NL position players, and four Rockies – Jeff Hoffman (1.2), German Marquez (1.2), Kyle Freeland (1.1) and Antonio Senzatela (1.0) – sit in the top four among rookie pitchers in the league. Meanwhile, Jordan Montgomery (1.4) actually leads all rookie pitchers in fWAR through June 19.
Useless Info
Arenado’s cycle was the 17th in the history of Coors Field, which opened in 1995. There have also been 17 cycles completed at Fenway Park, which was built prior to the 1912 season.
Corey Kluber pitched a three-hit shutout Monday against the Orioles in which he struck out 11 hitters without a walk. It was the third time this month in which Kluber struck out 10 or more hitters while allowing one walk or fewer. More remarkably, it was the sixth time in his career the right-hander has struck out 10 hitters without a walk– twice as many as any other Cleveland pitcher in the last 100 years.
Mets starter Jacob deGrom homered for the Mets Sunday. According to MLB Stat of the Day, the Mets have won 17 consecutive games in which one of the club’s pitchers hits a home run, and the franchise is 42-11 all-time when a pitcher homers.
Next: Top prospect for every MLB team
MLB Stat of the Day also noted that former Met Daniel Murphy has hit .393/.441/.710 with eight home runs and 28 RBI against his former club. The Nationals second baseman has also reached safely in all 27 games he has played against the team that drafted him.